Finally A New All Time High

After a few attempts, the SP500 finally made a new all time high. The question now is where will it go? Looking at the price actions, it appears it wants to go higher until various market breadth indicators get weaker.

Although in the near term the market seems to want to head higher, but couple of the big cap tech stocks appears to be bucking the trend, they are AAPL and GOOG. Both of these stocks are nearing critical support level. If they break below these support levels, they could lead the market down for the long awaited correction or a trend reversal.

Here is a video reviewing the market indices and the price actions for AAPL & GOOG.

Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Correction: I inadvertently referred to the fib 161.8 as 168 in this video. It should be 161 extension.




Disclosure: No position on AAPL & GOOG

The Significance Of SP500 New All Time High

Today, the media talking heads had a field day on SP500 watch. The SP500 came within 1.2 points away from matching its all time closing high of 1565.15 and failed to close with a new all time high by less than 2 points. Although the SP500 failed to close with a new all time high, it did close with a new multi-year high of 1563.77 while the DJI closed with another new all time high of 14559.70.

While many market participants and talking heads were watching the SP500 trying to reach a new all time high, the DJT, Nasdaq composite, and the Russell 2000 failed to make a new high. So what is the significance for the SP500 to close with a new all time high after today’s performance? Not much! The reason it doesn’t have much significance is the market is not waiting for the SP500 to help propel it into a new uptrend. To the contrary, the market appears to be waiting for the remaining index, the SP500 to make a new all time high.



Am I calling a market top? Absolutely not. I am not in the business of calling market top or market bottom, I leave that task for the pundits and the talking heads. I learned long time ago it is a fool’s game to try to call the market. What I try to do is to read the market and decipher the message it sends. Sometime I get it right and other time I get it wrong. But one thing I know from years of watching the market is the market will send out signs that it is about to change direction, and some of those signs are starting to appear. Therefore, I will continue to trade defensively by reducing position size and exercising tight stops. I would rather be out of the market wishing I was in than trapped in the market wishing I was out.

A Push To Another All Time High

As the Cyprus sideshow continues, the US market continues to hold onto its high ground. The SP500 continues to flirt with taking out the old all time high of 1565.15. From the market price actions, it appears to be a matter of time that the SP500 will hit its all time high level. Although the market breadth indicators are still in good shape, but the extended move the market has made without a pullback continue to cause traders to be cautious.

Here is a video reviewing the market indices and a look at some momentum stocks such as AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, DDD, NFLX.

Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.



Disclosure: Long AAPL, short AMZN & DDD

Flirting With New High

After the initial pullback from the Cyprus banking problem, the market came roaring back and flirting with making another new all time high. While many disbelieved market participants and talking heads looking for a correction, the market continues to move higher with good breadth. The market will not be near a top until the market breadth starts to deteriorate.

Here is a video reviewing the market indices and a follow up review on the stocks that were highlighted from previous video.



Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Waiting For A Catalyst

The market has been making new all time high as market participants wait for the long overdue correction or pullback. So far, every little dips were met with buyers. The market does not appear to be looking for a catalyst to move higher; instead, it is waiting for a catalyst to selloff. The breadth of the market has not deteriorated even though the market is extended. Until those breadth indicators start showing signs of shifting from strength to weakness, the market will continue to grind higher.

During this weekend, a development in the Euro zone is being play out and that could be the catalyst or the excuse the market has been waiting for to start the long awaited correction. No one will know how the market will open next week, but as a trader, one can only trade based on price actions and not on believes. Here is a video highlighting the price actions of the market indices and some stocks that show potential trade possibilities going forward.

Continue to exercise caution and trade defensively. Wait for the setup and the trigger. Do not attempt to outguess the market!

Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.



Correction: ORCL is attempt to make a new multi-year high, not a new all time high.

Trading Breakout Toward Breakout

Have you ever notice lot of breakout moves ended up as a fake out, or that you have enter a breakout trade only to be shook out from a quick retracement back below the breakout level. Do not feel bad if you have experienced those trades, we all have. But have you ever try to look at these breakout levels from a different perspective? Instead of looking at these levels as breakout level, look at them as target level. Can you guess who trade this way? Here’s a clue, wholesale/retail.

The following video shows some examples of trading breakout toward breakout.



Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Market Continues Higher

The market continues to move higher. The DJI, DJT & RUT all made new all time high. The SP500 is less than 15 points from its all time high.

Although the market is trending up, there are stocks showing signs of fatigue. Cautions should be exercise on all new long positions, and apply trailing stops to protect unrealized profits.

Here is a video reviewing the market indices and some stocks for possible longs & shorts.



Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Stocks covered in the video: aapl, goog, nflx, bidu, fcx, xom cvx, cop, oxy, joy, wft, ung, angi, p, grpn, rax, akam, ms, gs, tbt, tlt, kol, rig, mcp.

Disclosure: Long SPY PUT, AAPL CALL, UNG, TBT

Historical Day For The Market

The DJI made history on 3/5/2013 by closing with a new all time high at 14,253.80, surpassing the previous all time high made on 10/9/2007 at 14,164.53. This new all time high on the DJI also confirmed by a new all time high from the DJT. The DJT closed at 6136.72. Based on the Dow Theory, this confirmation indicates potential newer high to come for the DJI.

Here is a video recapping the market indices and reviewing AAPL NFLX GOOG AMZN FB.



note: The chart for the DJT in the video did not include the 3/5/2012 price bar. See the chart below for the updated DJT chart.




Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Stock Watch - 3/4/2013

Here's a look at the market indices and the following stocks: AAPL BBRY FB AMZN GOOG GLD

Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Did You See It!

There it is, another new 52 weeks high for the DJI. Did you celebrate this new high with all those talking heads? Strange how little attention and fanfare this new 52 weeks high received. If you were watching the DJI during the closing minutes of the last trading session, you would have notice how it was fluctuating between the previous 52 weeks high before it sneaked up and closed above it. Strange or deceptive? The market can't hide its action but it will try to be deceptive to fool most of the market participants.

Here is a video on some possible scenario for the market and the index ETF.



Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.


Disclosure: Long SPY PUT

The Anticipated New High For DJI

The game the market play is a very simple game of money transfer, transferring money from one pocket to another pocket. The process it uses to play this game is similar to the wholesale/retail business, buy the stocks at wholesale prices and sell it at retail prices.

Today, the DJI closed at another new 52 weeks/multi-years high. Just as I have stated in my 2/20/23 posting that another new high for the DJI is expected. The difference between today’s new 52 weeks high from the previous high is a lack of confirmation from the other market indices. Be cautious and don’t get trapped by this market topping process.

Here is a video reviewing today's market price actions.



Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Disclosure: Long SPY PUT

Stock Watch For Week Of 2/25/2013

Here are the charts for some stocks/ETF to watch for the week of 2/25/2013.

(click on the chart to get an enlarged view)

AAPL



GOOG



FB



BBRY



DDD



GLD




UNG

A Reminder From The Market - Featuring AAPL

It has been a while since the market has experienced a down day of more than 1%. Today, lot of stocks reversed with big losses. This bring out all those talking heads that been proclaiming the market is overdue for a correction. Whether or not today's price action is the beginning of a correction, it should at least serve as a reminder to all the market participants that it can get ugly when this market reverse direction.

Based on the Dow Theory and the recent confirmed 52 weeks high for the DJI, the DJI could make at least one more new high before it tops out. How deep and how long this pullback will last? No one know. Just watch the price action and those resistance turned support levels, and trade what you see.

Here is a brief video reviewing the latest price action for AAPL.



Click here to video the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Another New High For The Market – Featuring FB

Today, the market made another confirmed high with the DJI and the SP500 closed at a new 52 weeks high, while the DJT and the Russell 2000 closed at another new all time high. The only index that is still lagging behind is the Nasdaq 100. While all these market indices are making new high, the negative divergence between the MACD and the indices continue to persist.

Although there is a high level of anticipation of a pullback or a correction, the market continues to frustrate the anxious bears and the sideline dip buyers. Base on historical market behaviors, the long awaited pullback will not occur until those frustrated dip buyers lose their patience waiting for a pullback and chase the market by diving in at all cost. In the meantime, there are stocks that have the potential to move higher base on its own technical price structure. One such stock is FB.

Here is a video briefly summarize the latest market move, and a technical look at the price action for FB.



Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Disclosure: Long FB

AAPL Next Move

AAPL has been trading between the price of 435-485 for nearly 2 months. The price pattern doesn't appear to be starting to new trend. The weekly chart below shows the continuation of the down trend pattern that has been in since it reached the 705 high in September, 2012.



View the video to see the near term potential price levels.



Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

You Have Been Warned

Today, you have been warned again by the market that the party is about to be over. If you decide to join the party at this time, don't plan on staying long, as this party can come to an end without further notice.

The DJI closed at another multi-year high today at 14,018.70 along with the SP500 and the Russell 2000. But the DJT failed to confirm the DJI new closing high. This is another sign from the market telling you to be defensive; reduce your position size and tighten your stops!

click on the chart to enlarge

DJI

DJT

 

Still Watching For Market Top

The market continues to hover near the all time high territory. The DJT and the Russell 2000 continue to make new all time high. There are signs that the market is getting ready to pullback a bit, but no sign of a market top yet. One of the leading sector that been pushing this market up has been the financial and they continue to hold the higher ground. There is negative MACD divergence showing, this could be the first sign to warn the market participants to be cautious.

Here is a video reviewing the price actions and looking at some possible near term price levels for the market indices SPX, DJI, DJT, NDX, RUT, and some financial stocks JPM, C, BAC, MS, and GS.

Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Stock Review - 2/3/2013

Here is a video reviewing some PC related semiconductor stocks, INTC, AMD & MU, along with some non-tech stocks, WU, CAR, CHK, UNG & KOL.



Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Stock Review - 2/2/2013

Here is a look at MSFT, GOOG, GS and FB.



Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Disclosure: Long FB

The Market Could Be Topping – 2/1/2013

Today the DJ Industrial closed above 14,000 at 14,009.80. The last time it has closed above 14,000 was on October 12, 2007 at 14,093.08. Obviously, there were many fanfares from the media and from the talking heads on this milestone. But what was missing today and on January 29, 2013 is the lack of mentioning about the failure of the DJ Transportation index making a new closing high. To the Dow Theory followers, these non-confirmations are the sign of a market forming its top or it has topped. From today’s close, the DJ Industrial is 154.73 points from its all time high. The market most likely will not top out until after the DJ Industrial has closed above the October 9, 2007 high of 14,164.53.

Here is an updated chart of the major indices:

(Click on the chart to enlarge)

While the market waits for the DJI new all time high, be defensive. The market could pullback and lures some fresh money into the market before it tops out, or it could simply run up to a new non-confirmed all time high next week and start a new down trend.