Saturday, April 11, 2009

Movers, Shakers, Pretenders

The pre-announcement of WFC's earnings on Thursday gave the market the lift to shift it into high gear. The DJI gained almost 250 points and moved above the 8000 level once again. The SP500 moved up to the resistance level near 850 level. The Nasdaq 100 is moving away from the support level of 1290 and marching upward to the Nov 2008 high in the range of 1380. With option expiration coming up next week and earning reports from some closely watched companies such as GS, INTC, GOOG, JPM, C and GE, the market will reveal to us who are the movers, the shakers, and the pretenders in this bear market rally.







Lets take a look at some of the notables for next week.



First up on earnings report before the open on Tuesday is the survivor of Wall St., GS. It has broken out of the upward price channel and barring any negatives, the earnings report could move it into 130-140 zone.



Then come INTC after the close on Tuesday. Semiconductors have been strong recently, and any indication from INTC that the semiconductor market is stabilizing could be interpreted as a positive to continue the tech rally.



On Thursday, the mother of web search, GOOG will be reporting. This is a wildcard and it could easily swing 50 points in either direction. I tend to stay away from earnings play especially on GOOG that report a day before options expire.



On last Friday while the market was closed in observance of Good Friday, the buzz about MSFT is in talk with YHOO again could stir things up on the tech sector next week. This could add more fuel to the Nasdaq 100 to move it into the 1380-1400 level.

As the earnings report season continue next week with option expiration and the latest buzz on MSFT and YHOO, the market could very likely give us some wild moves to shake the longs and squeeze the shorts as it continue to move higher. My trading strategy still remain in managing my stops on my longs and wait until the market has run its course in the bear market rally before considering going shorts.


Cautionary Note:


One cautionary note I like to make to all the blog readers out there, not only there are stocks that pretend to be the mover, but there are lot of pretenders in the blog land. Be careful not to focus on reading only those blogs that share your view of the market. In order to be successful in trading as well as in life, one must maintain an open mind to accept viewpoints from others and learn from them, not necessary one needs to agree with them but one needs to be open minded and respect other people's viewpoints. For those blogs that you find or discover they will not accept your comments because it differ from the blogger's view, my suggestion to you is don't waste your time reading those blogs. Those bloggers tend to think they know what the market will do. As any experienced traders can tell you, no one know what the market will do, all one can do is put together some scenarios on what the market might do and monitor it, and depend on which scenario becomes reality, then one trade accordingly. Be careful and good trading to all.


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