Thursday, January 28, 2010

Critical Juncture

The market has reached a critical juncture where it must establish support near today’s close or fall to next possible level of support. Between here and next support level, the drop can be quick and volatile since the rise to this level was pretty quick and dramatic.

The SP500 broke below the 1085 support during intraday. Near the close, the SP500 was able to regain some of the losses and closed fractionally under 1085. Similarly for the DJIA, if it doesn’t bounce back above the 10,160 level, 9650 is the next possible stop. The Russell 2000 paints the same picture. The tech heavy Nasdaq 100 already begun its fall to next possible support level of 1740. If it is indicative of things to come, then one should not be surprise to see the other market indices drop quickly to catch up to the Nasdaq 100. Of course, there is always that possibility of the Nasdaq 100 making a U-turn. But that possibility is more of a hope than reality because the market is in a state of looking for excuse to sell. Tomorrow GDP report will probably show a gain, and this fabricated GDP number could produce a headfake bounce. My bias on the market remains to be bearish.

Click on the following charts to get an enlarged view:

DJIA:




SP500:




Nasdaq 100:




Russell 2000:



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