Sunday, November 14, 2010

1st Round Goes To Fibonacci

It appears the SP500 has found resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and the first round goes to the Fibonacci traders while the pattern traders have to wait for their Head & Shoulder measured move to materialize.

Prior to the Fed's QE2 announcement, the tech sector has been leading the market up and the financial was in dormant. After the Fed announced its QE2 plan, the financial woke up and moved some of the skeptics into the market and this surge have triggered some profit taking. Since next week being an OpEx (option expiration) week, further shakeout with increasing volatility can be expected.

The market has not given any sign of a top, and the likely support from this pullback will be near the 50 SMA level (see the charts below). Until a support level has been established, buying the dip (bottom fishing) can be a risky move. I will be keeping a close watch on the 50 SMA for clues on whether the market will be resuming its rise or more pullbacks to come.



SP500:



XLF:




XLK:



Share It