Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Beware Of Pre-Election Rally

The Market appears to be near a level where it can get a quick and short rally prior to the upcoming US election. As the SP500 has retreated nearly 5% from its recent 52 weeks intraday high of 1474.51, many Market participants are looking for a relief rally.

From the latest SPY daily price chart, if a relief rally is to occur, the SPY can bounce back up near the 143 level before it resume its current downtrend. The most likely support level for the SPY to test will be near the 138.50 mark.



The recent price actions from the QQQ seems to indicate it has found some temporary support near the 65 level and if a rally is to occur, it can possibly bounce up to the 66-66.50 region. 


 
The Dow Jones Industrials 30 ETF, DIA could bounce up to the 132 level before it resumes its downward move toward the support level near 128.


 
Finally, the Russell 2000 ETF, IWM is continuing its slide within a downward price channel.  It recently encounters resistance at the 92 level and could be heading down to retest the price channel lower trendline near the 80 area.  If it fails to hold support near the 80 level, then the next major support level for this ETF to test will be near the 76.

 
As the US election near, there will be a lot of portfolio positioning in attempt to anticipate the likely victorious presidential candidate.  As a trader, do not let these pre-election rallies trap you.  Trade the price actions, don’t trade opinions.  Wait until after the election and a winner has been declared, and then set up your positions.


Disclosure: Long SPY PUT & QQQ PUT


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