Sunday, January 13, 2013

The State Of The Market

Recently, there has been lot of talk about the market nearing a top and a major pullback is imminent. That might or might not occur, but for ill-informed people to misquoting market indices historical high is a disservice to their audience. The fact is only the Russell 2000 has made a new all time closing high, not the SP500, not the Dow Jones Transportation, not the Dow Jones Industrial, and not the Nasdaq 100.

Here are the numbers. The all time closing high for the Dow Jones Transportation was made on July 7, 2011 with a close of 5618.25, the Dow Jones Industrial made its all time closing high on October 9, 2007 with a close of 14,164.53, along with the SP500 making its all time closing high on the same day with a close of 1565.15. For the Nasdaq 100, its all time closing high was made back in the dot-com bubble era on March 27, 2000 at a close of 4704.73 (I doubt it very much the Nasdaq will get close to this number in the near future.)

So where is this market going? No one really knows, but one can only decipher the messages the market sends out and attempt to get some clues on where it is heading. What the market telling us is sit tight and watch the Dow Jones Transportation and the Dow Jones Industrial index. When either one or both of these indices make a new all time high, watch what the Dow Jones Industrials is doing. These two indices will give us clues what the next new all time high from the Dow Jones Industrial will signify; top or higher high to come. The market will repeatedly play out this scenario according to the Dow Theory. If you are not familiar with the Dow Theory or like to learn how one can apply the Dow Theory to read the market messages, search my blog using keywords ‘dow theory’. In the meantime, let's see which index will reach a new all time high first, Dow Jones Transportation or Dow Jones Industrial. The Russell 2000 already gave a clue where the market might be headed. Pay attention and keep watching the market for subtle messages. The market might be deceptive, but it always shows us what it did and what it might do.


Below is the chart showing the one year closing level for the SP500, DJI, DJT, NDX and RUT.




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