Sunday, May 18, 2014

The State Of The Market(s)

After the SP500 made a new all time closing high at 1897.45 with a small shooting star candle and followed with the formation of an even star candle pattern, it finished the week nearly unchanged with an inside bar candle. The key support level for the SP500 to hold is 1848.38. If it continues its rebound that started in the last two hours of trading on Friday, then the resistance it needs to overcome is 1897.45.

(click on the chart to enlarge)


For its ETF, SPY, the support is 184.66 and the resistance is 189.96.



It was no surprise for the DJIA to make a new all time closing high as the DJT was telegraphing with its own new all time closing high. The DJIA also pulled back after closing with a new all time high. The near term support it needs to hold is 16,245.87. If it fails to hold the near term support, then look for 16,015.32 as a major support that it must hold. Do not be surprise if the DJIA go make another new all time high.



For the DJIA EFT, DIA, the near term support is 162.12 with major support at 159.88. The all time high at 167.11 is the resistance.



The Nasdaq 100 failed to get itself back closer to new high territory while the DJIA & SP500 were making new high. It retreated as it bump against the declining trendline. In order for it to move back near its 52 week high level, it needs to break the resistance at 3625.70. If it continues to retreat, the support level at 3418.88 must hold to avoid breaking the developing head & shoulder pattern.



The QQQ, Nasdaq 100 ETF needs to break the resistance at 88.61 and must hold support at 84.07.



The Russell 2000 shows the most weakness last week. As the DJIA & SP500 were making new high, its price action formed a big solid red candle. It did made a reversal last Thursday as it got close to the 1079.10 support level. The dead cat bounce continues on Friday filling the Thursday gap. It is doubtful at this time the Russell 2000 can get back above the resistance level at 1137.80.



The Russell 2000 ETF, IWM has a near term resistance at 108.65, 107.27 could be the short term support and 107.27 as a near term support level.



As one can see, there are still two different markets operating. Eventually, they will all come together and move in the same direction. Until they do, continue to be cautious.


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