Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Murky Picture

As any seasoned technician will tell you, technical analysis is more of an art than science and it is more subjective than objective. For these reasons, a technician will look for confluence from various technical perspectives in an attempt to form a highly probable conclusion on potential price movement. Note the key word “probable”, because there is always a degree of uncertainty in any form of analysis, whether it is technical or fundamental.

When the market is operating in a well defined trend, conclusion from different form of chart usually agrees with each other. But when different chart based on different time frame and/or different price scale give different picture, one can conclude the market is not operating in a well defined trend.

Looking at the following charts for the SPY, a murky picture appears.

The weekly price range chart plotted with a linear scale show all the prices have been confined within a rising wedge for more than a year.

(click on the chart to enlarge)


The same weekly price range data plotted with a log scale show it has dipped briefly below the supporting trend line then moved immediately back inside the rising wedge.



Similarly, the daily closing price chart plotted with a linear scale show all the closing prices in more than a year have been contained inside the rising wedge.



But once again, if the same daily closing prices are plotted with a log scale, one can observe it has recently broke below the supporting trend line, and it has encountered resistance as the price attempt to move back into the rising wedge.



The charts above show how different price scale gives a different perspective. Not only these charts did not provide confluence, they actually provided contradictions. The market is operating in an indecisive state when there are contradictions, and the prudent thing for a trader to do is to be defensive or move to the sideline until the market picture is clear. And the current state of the market is indecisive and the charts are presenting a murky picture.


Share It