Sunday, September 29, 2019

Weekly Stock Market Update - 9/29/2019

The stock market had another wild swinging week. The SP500 closed at 2961.79, down 1.01% or 30.28 points. The Nasdaq 100 closed at 7681.58, down 1.81% or 141.97 points. Most of the damage was done on Tuesday by the impeachment inquiry news, and capped off by the trial balloon on Friday from the Trump administration on possible delisting Chinese companies from the US stock market. After the market sold off on that trial balloon, the U.S. Treasury and the White House were walking back that consideration on Saturday by issuing statement indicate it has no plan on delisting Chinese companies at this time.

In this weekly stock market update, we will review and analyze the stock market price action from last week and establish some possible near term scenarios for the stock market. Near the end of this update, we will analyze Alibaba (BABA) stock for possible trade opportunities after it has dropped more than 5% on Friday and 9.06% or $16.53 for the week, and see if we can capitalize on the White House retraction regarding delisting Chinese stocks from US stock exchanges.


The past 3 weeks weekly price action formed a bearish evening star candle pattern near the ATH (all time high) of 3027.98.

On the daily chart of the SP500, we noticed the bearish evening star candle pattern from prior week and that flagged us to be on the lookout for a potential near term pullback. One of the pivot level we were watching was the 2978.57. If this level was violated on the downside, then we will focus on the price movement toward filling the gap below and moved back underneath the 2939.08 potential support level. On Friday, it dropped to an intraday low of 2945.53, short of filling the gap.

In the coming week, we will watch for a short term bounce back to test now the potential resistance level at 2978.57. If it proceeds to move up above this level, then it must move above the pivot high at 3021.99 in order to put in a higher high/higher low. Otherwise, if it fails to take out the resistance level at 2978.57 and the pivot high at 3021.99, then monitor the price to retrace and complete the gap fill. The next major downward move for the SP500 could be filling the gaps at 2921.86 and 2891.85 as it move toward potential major support near 2834.97.

Nasdaq 100:

The Nasdaq 100 weekly price action shows it had a inside week breakdown with a lower high.

The daily price action shows it has broken down from the prior week's bearish evening star candle pattern and dipped below the support level at 7747.08. It has filled the gap below 7747.08, and on Friday, it closed below the ascending trendline.

Next week, we will monitor for a possible short term bounce back above the prior support level at 7747.08. Unless it moves above the prior pivot high at 7975.33 to form a higher high/higher low, then we will resume on watching for continuation of the pullback toward the potential major support level near 7356.27. On this move down, there are some potential minor support levels to keep an eye on. They are 7584.82 and 7442.93.

Watch the video for a complete analysis of SPX, NDX, Emini SP500 (ES), Emini Nasdaq 100 (NQ), SPY, QQQ, and BABA.

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