Sunday, August 16, 2009

Continue To Defy

The market continues to defy conventional wisdoms. Every time the market appears to retreat, buyers step in and lift it higher. Since July, there are two forces pulling the market. On one end are the nervous sellers that have got in early on this rally and are in disbelieve this rally has got this far without a substantial pullback. The other is the anxious sideline money that has felt they have missed out on this rally and waiting anxiously to get in.

Right now, the DJIA, SP500, and the Nasdaq 100 are testing resistance at the Fib retracement level. The bears are anticipating a pullback, and the anxious sideline bulls are waiting for opportunity to get in, and the market will do what it will always do; the unexpected. The market will most likely consolidate at the current level around the Fib retracement to frustrate the bears and lure the anxious sideline bulls to move in. As these sideline money lift the market higher, those frustrated bears will convert and participate along with those sideline money to lift the market to a blowout stage. When everyone is all in, the market will then reverse.

For now, here is the weekly chart for the DJIA, SP500, and the Nasdaq 100. Note how the indices are hitting the Fib retracement level and where the likely support level will be if a pullback does materialize.







While the market is sorting things out, gold is sneaking up with little notice. It has positioned itself to the possibility on making another attempt on breaking the $1000 level. If it breaks above the level indicated in the chart, the move toward the $1000 level is highly probable. The gold mining stocks are also poised for a possible breakout. In the coming week, gold and gold mining stocks could be interesting to keep an eye on.







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