TWTR Trade Review - 12/30/2013

If you were day trading TWTR today, hopefully you caught the midday rally. If you are not a day trader, you should have been patient and waited on the sideline. Here is a look at today's price action.

Stocks To Watch - 12/29/2013

In this video, a look at possible price action for AAPL, TWTR, FB, NFLX, GOOG, AMZN & TSLA.

DRYS Breakout

Since the mention of this shipper, DRYS as a macro play on the thesis of an improving economy for 2014, it has surged upward after it broke a long term inverted head & shoulder price pattern. Here are the updated price charts on DRYS with possible near term price target.

OpEx Pin For AAPL, NFLX, FB, TWTR

These are the possible weekly OpEx pin levels for AAPL, NFLX, FB & TWTR:

Two Semiconductor Stocks To Watch

QCOM and SNDK could be breaking out to a new 52 week high. Here are the charts.

Market Could Hold Its High

The market continues to make new record high. Here are three Dow stocks that could be perking up: IBM, MCD & CAT. The DJIA could be holding up in the record territory for sometime if these stocks start to move toward their 52 week high. Keep an eye on these three stocks for possible near term breakout.

AAPL Price Action Review (Update) – 12/25/2013

AAPL gap down when the expected deal announcement with China Mobile did not materialize on December 18. And when the announcement of the deal finally came before the new trading week starts, the market greeted the actual announcement with a gap up open and closed with more than $20 gain for the session. This opening gap probably will not be filled prior to getting back to previous pivot high near 594 if can close above the 575 level. If the gap gets filled without reaching 594 first, then the 594 target could be in doubt.

TWTR On Target

TWTR appears to be marching toward the bull flag price target near 74. Even on Christmas Eve with an abbreviated trading session, its stock price advanced with conviction and heavy volume. It has reached the 141% Fib extension target and more. It is currently sitting near the 80% of the bull flag projected move. The full extent of the bull flag move is near the 74 level. As TWTR make its way to the 74 level, it could encounter resistance at the 161% Fib extension which is slightly under the 74 level. Having the price near the 80% of the projected measure move and nearing the 161% Fib extension, these technical factors could become the catalyst for a pull back since TWTR has gained more than 25% in the last 4 trading sessions.

AAPL & Friends Greeted Traders With A Big Holiday Cheer

AAPL held the opening price gap from the announced deal with China Mobile. The rising price channel upper trend line near 594 still in play.

Pre-Holidays Stock Review

Many traders will be away and volume will be light for the Christmas holidays week. Therefore, beware of increase volatility for the coming week. Here is a brief look at the chart for the following stocks: AAPL, FB, TWTR, GOOG, GS, MS, and JPM.

Everyone Lined Up

After a day where the DJIA stands alone on making a new all time high, the other market indices regrouped and joined the DJIA on making another new all time high.

AAPL, FB, TWTR & CELG – Quadruple Witching

Tomorrow is quadruple witching, SP500 and Nasdaq rebalancing. Therefore, anything can happen. Here are the updated charts for AAPL, FB, and for couple stocks to watch; CELG & TWTR.

Getting Nervous

The DJIA closed up once again, and that mean it made another new all time high. One would think the market technicians are celebrating with joy and holiday cheers. Well, maybe those technicians that only watch the stock charts and pay little or no attention to the market breadth are celebrating. Those that are the true student of the market are probably getting a bit nervous. Here are some of the things that cause these market technicians to be nervous: 1) non-confirmed DJIA new high, 2) down volume greater than up volume, 3) declining issues outnumbered advance issues, 4) less than 200 issues made new 52 week high, 5) issues made new 52 week high nearly equal to number of issues made new 52 week low. Notice these are all market breadth, not a derivative of the price, i.e. RSI, moving average, etc.

AAPL & More

Updated chart for AAPL, FB, GS, MS, JPM:

Rerun Once Again

It’s just like watching a rerun on TV because we have seen this picture before; the DJIA makes a new all time high along with the SP500 but without the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 making a new high, and no confirmation from the Dow Theory.

Financial Stocks To Watch

The market is waiting to see if the FED will taper or not from this week's FOMC meeting. Looking at some financial stocks, there appears to be a few that could be setting up to break to the upside, they are: GS, MS, JPM.

Stocks On The Move

FB formed a bull flag and moving toward its previous high. The measured move price target for FB is near 62.

AAPL Price Action Review (Update) – 12/15/2013

AAPL got near the 141% Fib extension then pulled back to test the 554/555 support.

NFLX Continues To Move Higher

Back in early December, I posted this about NFLX price actions that could be leading it toward the post ER high near the 390 region and that the price is trending within a rising price channel. It appears it is still moving toward the 390 region.

Homebuilder Building Up

The common wisdom is the rising interest rates from the anticipated FED tapering will cause a slow down to the housing recovery. This slow down will hamper the homebuilders’ earning prospects. But in defying the obvious, here is SPF, a homebuilder that appears to be setting up for a possible move to its 52 week high.

MGM Analysis – 12/10/13

MGM broke above a multi-year resistance near the 17 level in August and continue to move up to 20.98 before it started to pull back from this rising trend.

Good News Is No Longer Bad

After a good job report last Friday, the market took the good news and rallied. Many market participants were looking for the market to drop on a good job report as it will increase the probability for the Fed to taper. But as in most if not all instances that when the majority is leaning on one side, the market will go to the other.

Let’s Get Social

Here is a look at couple social media stocks, FB & TWTR.

After an extended run up from the July earnings report gap, FB pulled back and tested its IPO high of 45. It appears to be setting up for another run up to its previous high near the 54.80 level.

AAPL Price Action Review (Update) – 12/8/2013

Another illustration on how the market manipulates the price of AAPL during OpEx. Although AAPL did experienced a pull back on Friday, but AAPL's price trend remain to be up. The near term price target of 594 is still intact until it shows otherwise.

AAPL Price Action Review (Update) – 12/5/2013

AAPL got a bump on the news of a deal with China Mobile. As it got near the 576/579 resistance region that was discussed in the previous video, it faded back near the 565 level. Looking at the Open Interest for the weekly OpEx, it appears there is a good possibility it will get pin at 565 or 570. But the near term target remain to be the pivot high of 594 and the trend is still up.

AAPL Price Action Review (Update) – 12/3/2013

AAPL continues to move higher after a minor pullback through the 554/555 level. The price gapped up on the open due to some analyst upgrade, that voided the opportunity for AAPL longs to add or to initiate a position. There appears to be a confluence near the 576-579. Although the near term target is the pivot high near 594, this confluence level could pose some resistance, and maybe at that level AAPL could setup an opportunity for the sideline longs. In the meantime, for those that are long on AAPL, be sure to protect your gains.

Stocks To Watch - 12/1/2013

The market has been up for eight consecutive weeks and could experience a near term pull back. The potential pull back could present an opportunity to enter a swing long on some of these high beta stocks.

Nothing Has Changed

The market ventured into another record high territory on Thanksgiving eve. All the major market indices closed at record high territory with DJIA, SP500, DJT and Russell 2000 at new all time high, while the Nasdaq 100 at new multi-year high. Nothing has really changed.

AAPL Price Action Review (Update) – 12/1/2013

Ever since AAPL found support near 114 and reclaimed the 522 resistance/support level, it proceed to breakout the 529 pivot level and triggered a move toward the 554/555 level. On the day after Thanksgiving, an abbreviated trading session, AAPL broke through the 555 with little resistance. As the market resumes trading after the Thanksgiving holiday, it would not be a surprise if AAPL retrace back to retest the 555 level before it attempt a move toward the 594 region.

It Doesn't Make It Easy

The market is not making it easy for the bulls or for the bears as it continues to make record high. Just in the previous session, the DJIA made a new all time high with confirmation from the DJT and the bulls see it as coast is clear for higher high. Then today, the DJIA making another new all time high by a slim margin of 0.30 with the DJT failed to close with a new high, and that gave the bears something to smile on. But before the bulls move to the sideline or the bears starting a field day, the Russell 2000 said not so fast. The small cap Russell 2000 closed with a new all time high that surpassed the previous high by more than 1% or 12.40, and to cast more confusion into this picture, the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 also closed with another new multi-year high and showing improved market breadth. So what should one do?

AAPL Price Action Review (Update) - 11/26/2013

AAPL broke through the 529/530 level and could be heading toward the previous pivot high near 539. There is a resistance pivot level near 555 in which lies the 141% Fib extension. Barring any major market correction, the near term target for AAPL is the 539 then the 555.

Doing The Shuffle

The market is looking a bit tire, but not too tire to prevent it from reaching another new all time high for the DJIA, DJT and a new multi-year high for the Nasdaq 100, NDX. The chart of the indices shows the SP500 and the Russell 2000 did not make new high along with the DJIA. There seems to be a bit of shuffling amongst which indices to join the DJIA in the new high territory.

It Doesn't Care

The market doesn't care what all those people are saying about how extended it is. The DJIA continues to hit new all time high, even with repeated Dow Theory non-confirmation and negative market breadth. As history has shown, the market will frustrate those that are trying to call the top and/or waiting for the correction. When these non-believers rush onto a running train that is when the market will do what they were expecting the market to do. Until then, trade what you see and not what you believe (I know, you heard this many times before, but are you doing it?) One more thing, 'do not chase the market or the stocks.'

AAPL Price Action Review (Update) - 11/21/2013

Here is today's update for AAPL. It appears to be making an attempt to reclaim previous support levels. Click here to view the previous update.

Nothing Has Changed

Although the DJIA made another new all time high and closed above the 16,000 level for the very first time, the other market indices really have not change their character. The picture from the chart below is nothing new, we have seen this before.

AAPL Price Action Review (Update) - 11/20/2013

Here is the latest update on AAPL price action. Click here to view the previous update.

DJIA Stocks Reveiw - 11/19/2013

Here is a quick review of the 30 stocks in the DJIA.

Get Defensive

Here are couple defensive stocks to watch.

AAPL Price Action Review (Update) - 11/18/2013

Take a look at the chart below. It appears to be playing out one of the scenario that was mentioned in the earlier video. If you have watched the video, then today's price action should not have been a total surprise, maybe unexpected, but not surprised.

Shhhh....

The elephant might be leaving the room. Here we go again, look at the chart below.

AAPL Price Action Review - 11/17/2013

AAPL continues to recover from its near term low. After forming a double bottom and tested the pivot point for support, it appears to be consolidating near the 515 level with a potential bull flag pattern. As it breaks this bull flag pattern, the measured move could project a possible price target near the 580-595 range.

HPQ Turnaround Play (Update - 11/16/2013)

Here is the first post I did on HPQ turnaround play. And here is an update on HPQ.

It Just Keep Going

The market simply keeps going up as there is nothing to impede its march toward the 16,000 for the DJIA and 1800 for the SP500. The Russell 2000 still lag all the market indices and warrant a close watch for clues of possible pull back or blow out.

The following chart shows how all the indices are synchronized on making new high while the Russell 2000 is trailing behind.

When Will This Stop?

Just when the market flashes a sign it is getting ready to take a rest, it re-energize like the energizer bunny and zoom to another new all time high for the DJIA, DJT, and SP500 along with the Nasdaq 100 making a new multi-years high. The only index that did not make a new high was the Russell 2000. While the market indices made new high, the internal market breadth continues to deteriorate, so when will this stop? The answer might appear when euphoric/panic buying occurs. Until then, pick your stocks, manage your risk, and trade your plan.

Here are the charts of the internal market breadth for the NYSE and the NASDAQ.

Stocks To Watch - 11/12/2013

Here are some stocks to watch for potential upside move.

State Of Confusion

As the DJIA continues to make new all time high without the participation from other market indices, the market is generating a state of confusion.

Fool Me Once…

The DJIA made new all time high twice last week. The first was on Wednesday, then followed with a big down day and a sudden reverse on Friday to regain all the Thursday losses and closed with another new all time high. The SP500 followed the DJIA and closed with a new all time high as well. Although the other market indices; DJT, NDX and RUT had a nice big green day, but not enough to push these indices into new high territory. All these market indices failed to confirm neither the Wednesday nor the Thursday new high put in by DJIA & SP500.

Non-Confirmed

Just one chart and one phrase "non-confirmed" DJIA new all time high.

Retailers Watch

Here are some retailing stocks to monitor for potential upside breakout: TGT, M, ANF, AEO, ARO

Chasing It Up

Here are three stocks with high short interest along with recent breakout could lead to short squeeze as the performance chasers start a run with their buying spree.

Marching On

Market made a new high early in the week then pulled back and started to consolidate the recent gains. The small cap, Russell 2000 pulled back with a bit more conviction than the other major market indices. This is probably due to the recent speculative run up on some of the small cap stocks. But by no means is this pull back signifying a top has been made by the Russell 2000. It might have been, only time will tell. But at the present there is no evidence to indicate it has made a top.

It Finally Made It

The Dow Jones Industrial finally made the new all time high that the Dow Jones Transportation has been screaming to tell the Dow Theory followers. One might believe today’s new high could be the market top, but to the contrary. The SP500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and the DJT all made new high along with the DJIA. What this mean is today’s DJIA new high is a confirmed high. Only after the market index has made a non-confirmed high is when we should look for the possibility that the market has made a top. Until then, we will continue to monitor for a higher high.

In the video, the DJIA and its ETF, DIA along with the price action for AAPL after its earnings report are reviewed and analyzed.

Four Stocks To Watch

Here are the four stocks to keep an eye on for the coming week. These four stocks are scheduled to report their earnings. The most widely watched is AAPL. It is schedule to report earnings after the close on Monday, and the options market is pricing in approximately pulse/minus $35 move on earnings.

Market Review - 10/26/2013

Most of the major market indices were hitting new high during the week except the DJIA. The DJT continues to show strength and it only experienced its second down day on Friday from the last twelve trading sessions. Talks about how extended this market continue, and the market continues to defy those disbelievers as it makes higher high.

The Crash Of 1929 - PBS

Don't be fool by "It's different this time". Watch this PBS documentary of the 1929 stock market crash and see the similarities between today and 1929.

The Crash of 1929 . American Experience . WGBH | PBS

Enjoy & learn.

It's Not Complicated

If you have been following this blog and read about the Dow Theory in this blog and/or from elsewhere, you have probably got the message from the market already. Yes, sometime the market sends out messages that are loud and clear and not complicated. But the value of the message is only as worthy as the recipient's ability to interpret it.  Here is what the market has been saying (see the charts).

Changing The Tune

NFLX stock price surged more than 10% after it has reported earnings on Monday. The after hour price action appears to be following what GOOG stock price has done after it reported its earnings. Then something happened in the Tuesday session, NFLX changed the tune. It has decided not to play the song GOOG played and its stock price came straight down after gapped up on the open at a new all time high near the 390 level.

The Band Plays On

NFLX reported its earnings today after the close and knocked it out of the park. AMZN is schedule to report its earnings this Thursday after the close. AAPL is scheduled to announce the next generation IPad tomorrow. It appears the high beta, large cap tech stocks are zooming higher on any positive news. Of course, it can move the other direction as well with any negative news. Live by the sword, die by the sword. The band plays on!

Natural Resources Watch List - 10/20/2013

Here are some interesting natural resources, oil & gas charts with potential long breakout level to watch.

Be sure to check out "More To Come" to see where the market might be headed, and "Trading All Time High" on one possible way to buy high sell higher, and get an idea on what the options market is pricing in for the "Event Driven Trades" on NFLX & AAPL.

Event Driven Trades

Next week, two high beta and widely watched stocks will be holding price moving event. One of them is NFLX, it will report its quarterly earnings after the market close on Monday. The second one is AAPL, it will be holding a product announcement event with the possibility of announcing the next version of Ipad on Tuesday. These events will most likely move the stock price of the respective stock.

Trading All Time High

Not only did the market indices such as SP500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and the Dow Jones Transportations made new all time high recently, but many stocks also made new all time high. Trading stocks that have just made new all time high could pose a few dilemmas for the traders. Couple possible dilemmas a trader might face when trading a stock that just made a new all time high are: 1) where is the next price resistance or price target for establishing potential risk & reward, 2) the risk of buying into a profit taking pullback or a correction.

More To Come

The market continues to make new high as the DC clown show came to an end and a new round of earnings report begins. The SP500, Russell 2000, and the Dow Jones Transportations index made new all time high, while the Nasdaq 100 made multi-years new high. The DJIA is the only index that fails to come near to its last new high. This does not mean the market has top out nor the new high from the other market indices is non-confirm. To the contrary, the market breadth shows remarkable strength, with the advance/decline and the new-high/new-low surpassed previous high indicate broad market participation.

Trading YHOO Earnings Projected Move

YHOO will be reporting its earnings after the close on Tuesday, 10/15/13. For those that are holding YHOO or planning to trade YHOO through earnings report, here is the current option market pricing for the expected move from the earnings report; it is expect YHOO to move +-6%, and that is equivalent to approximately $2.10 from Friday's closing price. From the intraday chart below, the upside price move level is near the upper price channel and the downside price move is near the last pivot low off the lower price channel.

Market Review - 10/13/2013

The market continues to be jerk around by headlines coming out of DC on the budget deal clown show. While the DJIA appears to be a bit uncertain, the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 are getting near to test the recent high.

Two Different Directions

AAPL and FB are two of the most watched stocks, and they both have been recovering from their recent low.

Since the last earnings report, FB not only has regained the losses since its IPO but has nearly doubled since its last earning report. In the last two weeks, FB started to consolidate its recent gains. Last week, it ended with two consecutive weeks of losses for the first time since May of this year. The price action from last week resulted in a bearish hangman like candle on the weekly chart.

Another Dip Buying Opportunity?

In the "Pulling Back And To The Sideline" post, the DJIA price chart gave some indications that a bounce could be coming and also provided some possible resistance levels.

Pulling Back And To The Sideline

The market has finally culminated to more than a minor pull back. Since the beginning of July, the DJIA 50 SMA (green line) begins to turn from a rising trend toward a falling trend, and the index has been retreating since it made its new all time high on 9/18/2013.

FB Retracement

FB is trying to hold above the near term support trend line. If it fails to hold above this trend line, then it could possibly dip down to the 78.6% Fib retracement level near the mid 45 area to test for support.

Possible Gap Fill

Here are three stocks that could be headed down to fill their recent price gap if they fail to hold some key levels.

Raising The Flag

One of the most common price pattern appears on a stock chart is a flag or a pennant pattern. It could be a bull flag or a bear flag, depending of the direction of the price trend. In this discussion, we will focus on the recent bull flag from SNDK.

MOMO Stocks In Review - 10/5/2013

The market continues to chop around while the clown show in DC plays on. Shorts are being punished as they continue to try to go against the trend by shorting those strong trending stocks such as TSLA, NFLX and FB. Until the trend has changed for these stocks, it is best to simply move aside and watch. And for those that are waiting to buy the dip, their patience are being tested and when these waiting to buy the dip start to buy at any cost, that is when the shorts should get ready. Until then, traders should simply maintain their positions and protect their gains.

AAPL Next Move

Since the September 9, 2013 unsuccessful attempt to take out the August 19, 2013 closing high of 507.74, AAPL has retreated to the 50% Fib retracement level near 450. After a brief dip below this level, AAPL reversed its slide and has been trying to re-establish a recovery uptrend by forming a higher-high to pair up with the recent higher-low.

The Defiants

Although the clown show in DC is still being played, and the market is being jerk around to shake out some of the weak market participants, there are stocks that move independent of the market. Here are a few of those defiant stocks: DANG, CREE, MSFT, SNDK and TSLA. In this video, the price actions of these stocks are highlighted.

Three Socially Dysfunctional Stocks

Here are three social media related stocks that lot of people seem to have written off at one time or another (this writer included), P, GRPN & ZNGA. But if one is to study the recent price actions of these stocks, they have been performing remarkably well. Once again, the market reminding us never to trade what we believe, but trade what we see. The picture these three stocks are painting show possible higher prices to come.

Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

The Big Six

Here is a look at the follow six widely watched stocks: AAPL, FB, NFLX, TSLA, GOOG, AMZN.

Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Market Waiting For The Clown Show

The market hesitated to make a directional move one way or the other while it waits for Washington to perform its clown show with the debt ceiling/budget deal.

There were many market pundits proclaiming how bad the month of September will be when August came to an end. As it turns out, September was not a bad month but it wasn't an easy month for many traders. The market has become more of a stock picking market and the easy picking is diminishing. As October approaches, one needs to be reminded of October 19, 1987, the day the DJIA drop more than 25%. There is no sign the market is setting up to such a drop in October, but certainly one should never be complacent and believing this market will zoom higher without having someone eventually holding the bag.

AAPL, FB & More - 9/24/2013

As the market pulls back and cast some doubts to those that lack conviction, the strong stocks continue to hold their ground. Here is the latest look at possible price levels for FB, AAPL, NFLX, GOOG, AMZN, TSLA, & GS.

Stocks To Watch - 9/22/2013

As the end of September is near, stocks continue to edge higher defying all those that been waiting and warning about how terrible the month of September will be. Although there is still a whole week of trading before September ends and anything could happen. Here is a look at some of the widely watched stocks and a few that might attract some renew attention.

The price action and potential price levels for AAPL, NFLX, GOOG, AMZN, TSLA, LNKD, GS, FFIV, RAX, BAC are reviewed in this video. Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

GLD, SLV & Market Review - 9/21/2013

After the market made a new all time high last Wednesday, a little consolidation came in while the market re-align itself due to the shuffling of the DJIA component and the rebalancing of SP500.

Gold & silver gave back most of their gains from the Fed no tapering announcement. They need to be able to hold support and bounce off the 50% Fib retracement in order to move higher. Otherwise, they could be headed down to retest the June low.

Fed Gave The Market A Boost

Once again, the market surprise everyone by the Fed decision on not to taper. Almost every market participants were expecting a taper from the Fed ranging from 10B to 20B. Instead, the Fed decided the economy is not growing fast enough to warrant tapering, or is there more than not growing fasting enough? Your guess is as good as mine. In the meantime, trade what you see and trade your plan.

Unexpected Move From FB

Today, FB made an unexpected move and reversed to the upside in the mid-day. Here is a look at today's price action and some potential price levels that FB might be targeting.

Someone Know Something?

Is this just a coincidence or a case of 'there is always someone know something before anyone.'

Pull Back From The Active Three

AAPL continues to fall, NFLX appears to be pulling back, and FB profit taking came in big time. Here is a look at some of the possible price level for the coming days.

Something For Everyone

Lot of stocks from different sectors are poise to move higher. Here are some of those stocks from various sector.

The fertilizer sector appears to be waking up after a prolong decline.

Stocks To Watch - 9/15/2013

Gold & AAPL did not have a good week. They both sold off quit bit while the market move higher. GOOG, AMZN appear to rebounding from their recent pullback, and YOKU took off while SODA could be setting up for an up surge.

Near The All The High

Once again, the market is defying what the majority participants are anticipating. As September approaches, the talking headers are tells everyone that care to listen to them that the month of September will be a bad month for the market. So far, the market continues its upward march and appears to be getting ready to assault the recent new high. Although it’s only the middle of the month and there are still many trading day remains, one must not let down the guard to be cautious. The breadth of the market is not as strong as the previous high and that continue to remind us to be cautious.

Murky Picture

The market continues to rally into higher level. The Nasdaq that was lagging in most part of 2012 finally exerted itself and moved into multi-year high territory. Although the tech sector has been strong recently to help push the Nasdaq indices into new high, but the breadth is giving out warning signs to alert market participants to be cautious. Here are the charts of the Nasdaq market breadth showing its divergence.

Stocks To Watch - 9/9/2013

The coal sector was highlighted in this post and they seem to be lighting up recently, here are some of the stocks in this sector that might be of an interest: WLT, ANR, CLF. In addition, casino stocks are breaking out as well and appear to be heading higher, stock such as MGM, WYNN, LVS, and CZR. After bouncing off the June low, gold & silver appear to be taking a breather, but the price action indicates there could be further upside to come. Keep an eye on GLD & SLV.

JCP On The Bounce

Ever since Bill Ackman, the hedge fund manager sold his JCP holdings, JCP stock price has been bouncing up off its recent low. Base on the recent price action, JCP could possibly move higher in the near term.

Price To Watch For AAPL

As trading resume on Monday, September 9, 2013, AAPL prices will likely be volatile as it get ready to announce some new products on September 10 and some announcements in China on September 11, 2013. On its price chart, there appears to be a spot where the near term price might converge.

The Buzz

Near the close of trading yesterday, BBRY was buzzing with news of the possibility auctioning off the company to multiple bidders. This buzz will likely help the technical to play out as it broke above the 10.70 baseline for a potential swing long.

Lighting Up The Coals

The coal sector appears to be getting ready to make an upward move. Here is a look at the coal ETF, KOL and couple coal related stocks: WLT & ANR.

Symmetrical Move

LNKD formed a bull flag with a measured move price target of 267. This bull flag could result in a symmetrical move. Here is a weekly chart depicting the possible bull flag move.

Stocks To Watch - 9/2/2013

Here is a look at some of the momentum stocks and some of the possible price actions for the coming week: FB, Z, TSLA, AAPL, NFLX, and GOOG.

Possible Revitalized Stocks

Here are three possible stocks that could show some upside prices in the near term: LULU, YOKU and OPEN.

The Gold Watch

Looking for a possible pull back for gold before it make another upward move. If gold ETF, GLD pulls back to near 131 region, that would be near the 61.8% fib level and could be setting up another bull flag with a possible measure move price target near 142-143.

The Casino

Sometime the market feels like a casino, but if one apply risk management properly, one can minimize the amount of gambling on a trade and focus more on speculating.

A Pre-holiday Look

A brief review of the following stocks before the Labor Day holiday: GLD, FB, TSLA, KKD, GMCR, AAPL, NFLX, GOOG.

A Sudden Turnaround

The market was showing some strength in the early morning trading with many stocks surging higher. Then near mid-day and early afternoon, the market started to show some sign of stalling and many stocks beginning to give back majority of their morning gains.

Stocks To Watch - 8/25/2013

Here are some of the stocks & ETF that could move higher in the coming week: CHK SLV GLD MGM TSLA KKD FB GMCR CELG NFLX AAPL GOOG GS BAC.

Bouncing Higher

After an eventful week with the Nasdaq halted for trading for 3 hours due to system problem, the market continues to bounce back toward higher level. There are signs that this could be the last attempt on running up to make a new high for the market. While the trend still remains to be up, one must continue exercise caution and follow the stocks with strength.

Continue To Watch & Continue To Hold

With the DJIA closing down more than 100 points, NFLX, FB & TSLA appear to be holding up well. Continue to watch and continue to hold until your catalyst is invalidated by price. The current unsettle state of the market is difficult enough to maintain the course, so don't let your opinion or personal bias influence your trading decisions. More importantly, don't let others' opinions alter your trading positions. Trade what you see and trade with your convictions.

Stocks To Watch - 8/21/2013

The market still in the process of deciding which direction it wants to move. The SP500 is hanging around the 50 SMA that can easily break toward the downside or reverse back toward the upside. While the market is deciding, there are stocks showing strength and stocks at the crossroad where it can break down or reverse back up just like the market might do.

Looking The Other Way

Today, one simply need to look the other way and pretty much ignore in most part what the market indices are doing. The larger time frame trend for the market still pointing up, while the shorter time frame appear to be indecisive (correction or reversal?). Under the current market environment, it is very difficult to play the trend. You do not want to go aggressive long, and definitely do not want to short the market until it has clearly display the trend is down. Therefore, one must resort to be a stock picker and play the stocks that are showing strength.

Gold & Glitter

Since gold put in a closing low of 1212.30 on 6/27/13 and tested with a slightly higher closing low of 1213.40 on 7/5/13 in the futures market, it has been trending up toward 1350.

Remain Cautious

The market got spooked from CSCO earnings report. The news of a 5% layoff from CSCO was a big surprise to the market. With the PC market slowing and IBM projecting a tough quarter ahead, it was a making for the tech sector to get hit. Since IBM, CSCO and INTC are part of the DJIA, a 200+ point on the downside for the DJIA was not surprising.

Needs To Be Patience With FB Once Again

After FB moved back above the IPO price of 38, it has stalled and attempted to consolidate around the IPO price level. During the last couple trading sessions, it has broken below the IPO level and headed back down to 36. Looking at the weekly price chart, FB is in the process of completing an evening star candlestick pattern. This pattern typically is bearish when it is formed near the top of an uptrend. One can also see the similar price pattern formed by AAPL in September of 2012 prior to an extended retracement. After FB complete this pattern and price breaks below 36, then there could be some long opportunities when it has found support near the 34 level. Until then, one should exercise patience and wait for the next long trigger from FB.

Market Pulled Back

After CSCO announced its earnings and the pending layoff of 4000 people, the market sold off. From yesterday's review, the market breadth is indicating a pull back is imminent.

Here is a look at the market and what to expect next.

Headwind Could Be Striking

After the market closed today, CSCO reported its latest quarterly earnings and gave some surprising unsettled news about its business outlook for the coming quarter. In addition, the biggest surprise is the 5% workforce reduction (layoff) of 4000 workers worldwide. This is one thing no one is expecting, and for CSCO to take such drastic and sudden action, one must question how bad the global economy really is?

The New Old AAPL & More

Here is a follow up review for some of the stocks that were reviewed earlier. One of them is AAPL. AAPL was on the verge of breaking out of the double bottom pattern. Today, AAPL made a move above the pivot near 472. Then later on the trading session, Icahn tweeted to let everyone know he has a sizable position on AAPL and he felt AAPL is very undervalued. This tweet has increased AAPL market cap by 25B (yes, with a 'B'). AAPL is currently trading like it use to trade...volatile with lot of buzz. This is the new 'old' AAPL.

Analyze AAPL & NFLX Using Multiple Time Frame

Here is an analysis of AAPL and NFLX using daily, weekly and the 30 minutes intraday price chart to identify potential support & resistance levels, and possible price targets.

Home Builders Need To Rebuild

After an impressive run, the home builders have retreated and they have retraced to possible key support levels. If these support levels failed to hold, then look for further retracement from these stocks.

Something For Everyone

The market pulled back slightly last week. It might feel worst than it seems, since there are many days with triple digits intraday loss ended with a modest loss. This type of price action might give us some false sense of security. But, the trend is still pointing up, so until the market tell us otherwise, continue to trade the current trend.

The stocks being covered in the video are: AAPL GOOG AMZN NFLX IBM GS MS BAC JPM FSLR SCTY TJX RL TIF MGM LVS WYNN WFT SLB CHK PXD UPL EOG CLF P LNKD TRLA Z FB

Silvery Bounce

After the precious metals made their low in June, they been grinding back up to the mid-June price gap. The silver ETF, SLV is also trying to break above the 19.80 level and possibly move up toward filling the June price gap.

The Day After For PCLN

The Fib 161% extension level near 994 proved to be the resistance for PCLN on the day after it has reported its earnings. The intraday high for 8/9/2013 was 994.98.

As shown on the daily price chart, the price essentially reached the upper band of the rising price channel, and it appears the resistance has prevented PCLN from reaching the 1000 level on this attempt.

After The Earnings For MOMO Stocks

Let’s take a look at some of the MOMO stocks that have recently reported earnings: GOOG, AMZN, NFLX, TSLA, and LNKD.

PCLN The $1000 Stock?

PCLN reported its latest quarterly earnings after the close today and the price of its stock moved toward the $1000 mark in after hour trading. The option market priced a possible +-$54 price movement on earnings, a 5.8% based on the normal trading session close of 933.75.

As one can see from the chart in the video, PCLN closed at 984.04 in the after hour session.

Post Earnings Review For TSLA & GMCR

Certainly there was no shortage of anxieties and anticipations from those that were waiting for the earnings report to come out for TSLA and GMCR after the market close today. Those that are holding long position on TSLA certainly got rewarded, but those that are holding long on GMCR did not.

Don’t Be Blinded By The Bias

As recent history has shown, the two most hated stocks are rewarding those that are willing to put their feelings (bias) aside and trade according to price action. The two stocks I’m referring to are FB and AAPL.

BBRY could be another one of those hated stock making a similar move. Don’t be blinded or influenced by all the chatters, whether they are positive or negative. Put away whatever bias you might have and trade what you see. How high can BBRY bounce off its recent low and how long will this move last? Who knows? As a trader, just trade it until it stops moving. As always, trade your plan.

Here Come The Fireworks

Two heavily shorted stocks are scheduled to report their earnings after the market close tomorrow, they are GMCR and TSLA. The option marketing is pricing these two stocks to have price movement of approximately plus/minus 13% or plus/minus $11.00 and $18.00 respectively.

All Bets Are Off For MGM

MGM has been trending upward from the lower bound ($9.00) of its multi-year trading band to the upper bound ($17.00) since the end of 2012. It has broken through the $16 resistance level and currently testing the $17.00 trading band resistance. The short term moving average, 20EMA, along with the 50 & 200 days SMA have been rising with prices trending above them. Here is an earlier post on MGM setup.

But, before the market open for trading on 8/6/13 (Tuesday), MGM will report its quarterly earnings. Depending on the quarterly results and/or the forward guidance, the price of its stock can react positively or negatively. One could avoid the adverse price reaction to earnings surprises by taking off all bets on MGM until after earnings have been reported. As always, trade your plan.

Rational Fear & Greed

Whenever fear & greed are at an elevated level, there are no rationales to stock value. This is exactly what is happening to TSLA, similarly to NFLX, AMZN and many Web 1.0 stocks back in the dot com bubble. No one say you have to like it or accept it, you could just watch and learn how the game plays out over and over again. So whether you are in the TSLA trade or simply being a spectator...ENJOY the game (even if you know how this game will end). If you are in the trade, I wish you will make a lot of money and be able to keep them. Good luck traders!

Path To The 40s - FB

Ever since FB reported its latest quarterly earnings, the composure of its stock price action has changed. It has surprised lot of traders that do not believe FB could move back into its IPO price of $38 this quickly. Now many of these traders are waiting for a pullback to buy in. The most likely scenario is those that have missed the initial move will end up chasing the high as FB run toward the IPO high near $45.

Too Many To Choose

The market continues to make new all time high and stocks are on the verge of making new 52 weeks high. There are so many stocks in every sector displaying price action that can propel them into new 52 week or new all time high. There are simply too many stocks to choose to go long, it is getting scarey.

The following video will review the market along with highlighting some of the stocks that have the possibility of breaking out to new high.

These are the stocks being reviewed in the video: JPM BAC C GS MS TLT TBF JNK GM F WMT URBN TJX RL TIF KKD DNKN YUM MCD GLD GDX ABX GOLD GG GFI AOL GOOG HPQ AAPL FFIV PCLN NFLX BRCD JDSU YOKU LULU CRM

Pre-earnings Watch For DDD

The option market is pricing in a ±10% or ±$5.25 price move for 3D System earnings report before the market open today. The stock made a big move ahead of earnings. Could it be someone know something ahead ER or someone simply betting big on a positive earnings report outcome?

Stocks On The Move - 7/29/2013

Here are some stocks that could be on the move: AAPL, FB, GOOG, CHK, PFE.

Weekend Posting - 7/28/2013

Here are couple of pharma stocks that could have possible upside in the near term: LLY & PFE

Holding On Impressively

The market continue to close at record level and the DJIA, SP500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 are holding their gains near their record high territory.

Post Earnings Watch For AAPL

AAPL reported its quarterly earnings after the close on 7/23/2013. The surprising result was the strong sale of the iphone. The market was expecting somewhere around 26 million, and AAPL sold 31 million iphone and that gave the stock price a boost during after hour trading.

After New All Time High

After the SP500 closed with new all time high at 1692.09 on July 19, 2013, what’s next?

Betting On MGM

Here is a break down on recent price action from MGM. As one can see from the weekly chart (figure 1), ever since MGM made its low in March, 2009, it has been trading within a trading range of $9.00 to $17.00. The last time it touched the lower bound of this trading range was in November, 2012. Now, the price has climb back near the upper bound of this trading range and could possibly breakout of this range.

Renew Strength

The market closed at another new all time high. The DJT gave a Dow Theory confirmation today by closing at a new all time high along with the DJIA. The only index that shows a slight weakness is the Nasdaq 100, and that is due to some negative stock price reactions from disappointed earnings report.

Earning Watch For GOOG, GS, & More

Some potential price levels to watch for as GOOG, GS, BAC, INTC, CMG scheduled to report their

Market Decided To Move Higher

As the Fed chairman reassure the market it will continue with its easy credit policy, the market took off to new high territory. Although the DJIA and the SP500 closed with a new all time high, but they still have not closed above their all time intraday high. Short of any negative surprises from this earnings report season, the

Who Is In Control Of The U.S. Bond Market

As investors start pulling their money out of bonds, and country like Japan and eventually China start dumping their U.S. treasury holdings, U.S. long term rates will rise.

New High For LNKD?

It appears LNKD, one of the more strong social media stock, appears to be setting up to make a new all

AAPL & NFLX

AAPL might have established a near term double bottom, or it could be forming an inverted cup & handle pattern. Until it has confirmed which price pattern is in play, any swing trades will be elusive.

Key Levels For Gold

Investors are still pondering if this is the time to buy gold. Until there is a thesis to support owning gold as a hedge for inflation or as a safe haven, one need to simply take to the sideline and wait for the price of gold to

Still Deciding

The market is still trying to establish a direction. It is still at a crossroad that it can push toward the upside, or it can easily retreat from current resistance and move back to test recent support level. Until the market has

TSLA And Its FIB

Looking at TSLA with the FIB tool to find some potential price targets and possible resistance & support levels.

On The Move

NOK and gold could be on the move. Here are the charts for NOK & gold futures.

HPQ - A Turnaround Play

HPQ share price has more than double from its November, 2012 low when the price dipped below $12 a share. Looking at the recent price action, it has the potential to move into the $30-$38 in the near term if it

The Bounce

The market bounced as anticipated. Before it did, the market put in another triple digit down day for the DJIA on Monday to lure more shorts into the market before it heads back up toward potential resistance level. One can call this rally the “dead cat bounce”, “oversold rally”, or “end of the quarter window dressing rally”. In regardless what label to use for this bounce, the real question is where will this market go from here?

The Bias

Here is the mystery chart (see below) I have posted on Sunday. If I have stated the chart belongs to AAPL, most people would have given the outcome based on what they like to see but not what could likely occur.

Stocks On The Watch

Here are some stocks that might have some interesting price movement for the coming week.

The Head Fake

After the market rallied on Tuesday and took out the June 10, 2013 pivot high, the market accelerated downward when the FOMC made its announcement on Wednesday. This abrupt market reversal should not be a complete surprise to all market participants since the advance/decline line and the new high/new low indicators were alerting us to remain cautious and beware of  head fake("The Market Decision").

The Market Decision

Today, the market appears to have decided to resume back toward the new high territory. Getting to the new high territory is a wait and see matter at this time. But at least the Russell 2000 has pointed the way by closing with a new all time high today(without the notice from those talking heads).
 

Golden Moment Again?

From the recent price actions in gold, silver and some of the mining stocks, it appears the precious metals might be setting up for a bounce after the recent turbulent drop.

Here is a video reviewing the recent price actions and some of the possible upside price targets and breakout levels.

At The Crossroad

The market is at the crossroad once again. One move from the market and it will propel into another new high or it will dip below the recent pivot support to begin an extended downward move.

As stated previously, the June 10, 2013 intraday high from the DJIA, the SP500, the Nasdaq 100, and the Russell 2000 are the pivot levels the market needs to penetrate in order to resume its uptrend. If the market failed to move above the June 10 high and dip below the June 6, 2013 intraday low for the DJIA the SP500, the Nasdaq 100, and the Russell 2000, then the market will likely be headed down to a level that will likely exceed the typical 5-8% correction. The dip below June 6, 2013 low will affirm the new all time high of 15,409.39 made by DJIA on May 28, 2013 is the market top as measured by the DJIA and by the Dow Theory non-confirmation by the DJT.

(click on the chart to get an enlarge view)

SP500:



DJIA:



DJT:



Nasdaq 100:



Russell 2000:

Directional Move For NFLX

NFLX finally broken out of the developing wedge pattern, and it could be heading down to fill the gap made between 4/22/2013 and 4/23/2013. Before it gets there, it will likely encounter some support levels. In this video, we will look at some of those possible support levels for NFLX.

Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Stock Market Review - 6/10/2013

Today the market finished nearly little change from previous session. The SP500 closed at 1642.81 with a loss of 0.57, the DJIA closed at 15,238.60, -9.50, Nasdaq 100 loss 0.38 with a close of 2990.49, and finally the Russell 2000 closed with a small gain of 5.05 at 992.67.

Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

AAPL & LULU - 6/9/2013

With the annual WWDC next week, AAPL is bound to experience additional volatility as the market anticipate the company to make some new product announcements. After the market closed tomorrow, LULU will be reporting its earnings. The market will find out then how much an impact the see through fabric mishap has impacted LULU's earnings.

Here is a video on where the market might be moving these stock prices in anticipating the respective company's event.

Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.


Disclosure: No position.

The Market Bounced Back

The market closed the week with a gain after a few days of triple digits loss for the DJIA. On Thursday when the SP500 came down to the widely watched support level near 1598, it behaves like clockwork and bounced of this support level. The market continues to move higher on Friday and closed the week with a gain near the high of the day at 1643.38. Similarly for the DJIA, after two consecutive down week, it also closed the week with a gain at 15,248.10, the Nasdaq 100 closed up for the week at 2990.87, and the Russell 2000 closed at 987.62, up for the week.

TSLA Update - 6/6/2013

An update review of TSLA.

Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Stock Market Review - 6/6/2013

Here is a quick look at what the market did and where it might be headed.

Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Uncharacteristic!

The DJIA was up since today's opening while the SP500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 and the DJT all were negative. By the end of the trading session, the DJIA closed with a gain of 138.40, SP500 plus 9.68, Nasdaq 100 a gain of 9.03, the Russell 2000 plus 6.387, and the DJT closed with a loss of 1.91. These gains and loss are no big deal. But what is the big deal is the uncharacteristic of the market breadth indicator

TSLA Review - 6/2/2013

Here is a look at TSLA and potential price levels to monitor.

Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

AAPL & NFLX Review - 6/2/2013

A video review for AAPL & NFLX.

Fatigue Market

The market continues to show signs of fatigue. After the big run up on the first trading session of the week, all the major market indices ended the week with a loss.

On Friday, selling picked up in the last hour and an half of trading. There were talks the last minute selling is due to end of the month rebalancing. But whether it is rebalancing, the talk of end of QE-infinity, the selloff in

High Alert From The Rest Of The Market

After the Memorial Holiday, the U.S. market resume trading and it opened strongly with the DJIA up more than 200 points at one time, then the market started to retreat and the DJI gave back half of its gain to close at another all time high at 15409.40, +106.30 for the day. The SP500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and the DJT closed with a gain for the day as well, but they failed to close at a new high.

MOMO Stock Review - 5/27/2013

Here is a look at where the price of AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, NFLX, BBRY and GS might be headed.

Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Natural Gas Could Be Burning Bright

The natural gas ETF, UNG appears to be setting up to break the recent high of 24.09 level. If it does breakout, then the upside price target is between 28-30 using the measured move from the developing cup & handle pattern started in October of 2012.

(click on the chart to get an enlarge view)

Stock Market Review - 5/25/2013

The market did a reversal last Wednesday and gave the market participants a spook. Before one conclude that the market has topped out, let's remind ourselves that the market top out is a process and it is not an event. From the various indices and the market breadth indicators, they have not indicate the market has topped out. Until the market has show sign that the dip buyers are back in and the current pullback has ended, be cautious and be patient.

Deja Vu

Really! This time is different?

Check these past post, "How Long Can This Last?" and "Here's When It Got Started ... SP500 1250" then ask yourself is this time any different than the past...Deja vu!

Possible Trend Change For AAPL

If one compare the current AAPL price chart to the chart posted in "Chronicle Of A Trend Change", one can see many similarities. If AAPL breaks above 445 and move to test the resistance near 470, then it will have complete the higher-high, higher low pattern that define an uptrend.

AAPL Daily Price Chart
(click on the chart to get an enlarge view)

Levels To Watch For AAPL

AAPL has displayed some bullish price action and could be setting up to reverse to an uptrend. The near term key resistance level for AAPL is 445. If it can break above the 445 level, then look for it to possibly move up to 465/470 level. An inverted head & shoulder price pattern will be formed if AAPL move above the 470 level, and the projected measure move price target from this price pattern is near the 555.

Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.



Disclosure: Long AAPL

Stock Watch - 5/19/2013

In this video, a review on some stocks that could have upside price action in the coming week.



Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Disclosure: No position.

Are We There Yet?

As the market continue to climb higher, many market participants are preoccupied on waiting for the correction to appear. While these participants wait and ponder on when will this market will correct, they are missing the opportunity to long this market. Those that are focused on riding this market up are not asking "When will the overdue market correction appear?". Instead, they are asking "Are we there yet? Has the market reached the top?"

Here are some observations to help those that are wonder whether the market has reached the top. From the chart below, one can easily see the SP500, DJ Industrial 30, Dow Jones Transportation, Nasdaq 100,

Where Will They Go?

Here is a video reviewing the price action for AAPL GOOG AMZN NFLX BBRY & ANGI, and where they might go. GS is also being covered in this video.

Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.



Here is a weekly chart using the measured move to project a possible price target of 177 for GS.



Disclosure: Long NFLX & BBRY call spread.

MOMO Stocks Review - 5/12/2013

Here is a video reviewing the price actions and potential price levels for AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, NFLX, BBRY, and ANGI.

Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.



To find out what price levels the market might be targeted, check out Until The Market Change Course.

Disclosure: Long NFLX & ANGI, long BBRY call spread.

Until The Market Change Course

The market continues its upward march. After showing sign of a possible non-confirmed high might be in the making, it reaffirms its desire to move to higher level. The small caps Russell 2000 index is once again making new high along with the SP500 and the DJIA, even the DJT participated with the recent new high party until the last trading session, May 11, 2013. On May 11, the DJT failed to make a new high while all other major market indices made new high. This failure could be simply another temporary divergence between the DJIA and the DJT or it could be the final warning from the Dow Theory to alert us to prepare for the imminent market top.

As the market has displayed time and time again, those that try to call the market top will be reminded who is the boss and will get punished, and those that exercise diligence and patience on listening to what the market has to say will be rewarded. At the present time, the market continues to punish those going against the prevalent trend. Let’s remind ourselves, the market topping out is a process and not an event, and it does not just reverse itself on a dime. The market has to complete the process of money transfer and risk transfer before it changes course. This transfer process takes time and as this process progress, the attuned students of the market will see this process play out. Until the market start showing signs that it is in the final stage of this transfer process, one should continue to ride the trend cautiously or head to the sideline and observe.

Here is a video that review the recent market price action and highlight some of the intermediate key levels the market might be targeted.

Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Has AAPL Made A Bottom?

From the recent Apple stock price action, it appears an intermediate bottom for its stock price might have been made. This bottom might be due to Apple’s recent stock repurchase announcement.

After Apple announced its earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2013, it announced an increase to its stock repurchasing program from $10 billion to $60 billion.

Apple reported record revenue for the quarter, but the quarterly net profit of $9.5 billion ($10.09 per diluted share) was below a year-ago same quarter result of $11.6 billion ($12.30 per diluted share). In addition, the gross margin was 37.5 percent compared to 47.4 percent in the year-ago quarter. Apple’s stock price would have reacted in an adversely negative fashion with these financial results. Instead, the stock price held above the recent low of $385.10 made on April 19, 2013. More importantly, Apple stock price has increased more than 10% since the reporting of second quarter financial results. Its stock price went from $406.13 at the 4/23/13 close to 5/2/13 closing price of $449.92. The reason Apple stock price did not reacted negatively could due to the possible price support from its $60 billion stock repurchase program.

From a technical perspective, the monthly stock price chart show a dragonfly doji candle formed for the month of April. This type of candle typically signify a near term price reversal, and an intermediate low for the stock price.

Click chart to enlarge

Usually, a dragonfly doji candle is accompanied by capitulation selling. But for AAPL, there was no increase in trading volume for the month of April. The absence of increasing volume associated with the dragonfly doji could mislead some of the AAPL bears to remain short while they wait for the capitulation to occur. This misread from those AAPL bears could turn out to be very painful and costly if the April dragonfly doji candle reflects the true price action.

Click here to see possible trading price levels for AAPL.

Disclosure: Long AAPL

Post Earnings Review - 5/4/2013

Here is a video reviewing the price actions for the following stocks that have recently posted their quarterly earnings.

Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

AMZN Post Earnings Watch - 4/29/2013

AMZN sold off after its recent earnings report. The price came down to the 252 support level of the trading range between 277-252. If it breaks below 252, the next possible support level is near 242 and that could lead to a 218 price target for a down swing. See the charts below.

Daily:



Weekly:

AAPL Post Earnings Watch - 4/27/2013

AAPL stock price seems to be hold up fairly well after it has reported earnings on 4/23/2013. It appears the price actions could be setting up for a near term move toward the upside.

Here is a video on reviewing the price actions and where the positive near term upside price targets could be.

Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

AAPL Earnings Watch - 4/23/2013

Here is a video reviewing possible price targets for AAPL after it reported its earnings and a potential post earnings report price target for NFLX.



Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

NFLX Earnings Watch - 4/22/2013

Market is pricing NFLX to move +/- $26 based on its earnings report after the market close today. Here is a video looking at the various price levels.

Click here to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Finally A Pull Back

The market finally pull back a bit last week. But it appears there are still dip buyers willing to commit cash in this market. Until these dip buyers are all in, the market will continue to grind higher. For those bears that are impatience, they will continue to be chopped as the market setting up the trap to remind those dip buyers who is the boss.

Here is a video reviewing the market and what to expect for the near term.



Click here to view the video if you do not see the video player on your screen.

Making The Top

The market continues to grind higher and causing much frustrations to all those traders looking for a pullback. As the DJI continues to make non-confirmed high, many of those sideline traders are giving up waiting for the pullback and starting to move back into the market. At the same time, the internal market is getting weaker. This behavior is no different than previous market cycle peak, and the next big move will not be any different from previous cycle as well.

Here the SP500 daily price chart shows it made a new all time closing high of 1593.37 on 4/11/13 with the intraday high nearly reached the rising price channel upper trend line.



Below is the daily price chart of the DJI. It also made a new all time closing high on 4/11/13 by closing at 14,855.14. Unfortunately, this new closing high was not confirmed by the DJT. But for whatever it's worth, this new ATH was confirmed by the SP500. Similar to the SP500, the intraday high for 4/11/13 was near the upper trend line of a rising price channel.



While the SP500 and the DJI were making new all time high, the DJT continue to form the lower high-lower low price pattern. This is a sign of a new downward price trend. If this index does not reverse back up and start making new ATH to confirm the DJI, the market might experience more than a correction or a pullback in the near future.



The tech weighted index, Nasdaq 100 finally woke up a bit and surged to near a new 52 week high. Some big cap tech stocks are due to report their earnings in the next couple weeks, and some volatile price actions could occur prior to their reporting. This price action could propel the NDX to a new 52 week high and get more of the non-informed market participants excited about the tech sector before the market reverse. As the chart below shows the NDX finally broken out of the trading range and made a move toward a new 52 week high.



Finally, the Russell 2000 also starting to form a lower high-lower low price pattern. It tried to recapture the lower trend line level from the rising price channel on 4/11/13. Instead, it finished with a shooting star doji type candle on the day the DJI and the SP500 made a new all time closing high. If this is not a subtle sign the market sent out to inform us a top is in the making, then the RUT will need to reverse itself from this lower high-lower low price pattern and to put in a new closing ATH soon.



The market is still creating attention for the talking heads to be on 'new record' watch. Until some catalyst that will divert the talking heads attention away from watching the DJI on making new closing high while other market indices are below their respective record high, traders should not be surprise to see the DJI continue to break higher into new high territory. The market is in the process of making a top, and when this process is completed, more people will end up losing money than making money on this bull run. This is how it always been, and it will always be. Trade cautiously and resist the temptation to chase the move. There will always be more opportunities in the market. The worse scenario is to lose your trading capitals and not being able to capitalize on the next opportunity due to lack of capitals. Good luck.

What Is Wrong With This Picture?

Today, the market took off and the DJI along with the SP500 made another new all time high. But take a look at the 30 stocks in the DJI and see what is wrong with the picture. Only 14 of the 30 Dow stocks made a higher high to support the new high that was made by the index. If it is truly a market with strength, should it at least have more than half of the stocks in the index support the new high instead of less than half? Be cautious and don't get caught by the euphoria sucking in the sideline money.

Here is a video reviewing the closing prices of the 30 Dow stocks.

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This Time Is Not Going To Be Different!

Today the DJI closed with another new all time high at 14,673.50 while the other major market indices such as the SP500, DJT, Nasdaq 100, and the Russell 2000 failed to follow suit. This put the market back into the traditional pattern where the DJI is the last index to make a new high (top out). Unless a market index other than the DJI makes a new high all by itself in the near future and before the market reverse direction, then today’s market price actions clearly show the market is not acting any different this time than previous market cycles.

Today’s DJI closing high is the second non-confirmed Dow Theory high within a week. The longer the DJI stayed elevated in non-confirmed new high territory, the more vulnerable it is to an abrupt major price reversal. In order to avoid being trapped from the potential market reversal, exercise tight stop and do not chase price move. Stick to your trading plan and abide to your stops.

Here is a chart of the closing prices for the market indices. Click on the chart to get an enlarged view.

NFLX - 4/6/2013

Here is a video analyzing NFLX price actions and highlight some of the price levels for the near term.

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Disclosure: Short on NFLX

Is This Time Different?

Before you answer, ask yourself this question “Since you went to sleep last night and woke up today, did your behavior completed changed. What was important to you now is no longer important?” I didn’t think so. If your behavior and the rest of the human race in this world did not change their behavior, then what make this market to be different this time? It is still being driven by the ingrained human fear and greed emotions. Unless we are no longer being driven by fear and greed, then this time is no different than any previous time or any time in the future.

As fear start to make its way back into the market, the small cap sector is the first one to falter and we can see that by the recent price action from the Russell 2000 index, RUT. As fear starts to build, risk will start to be reduced and money will start to be exiting the small cap stocks and put into more perceived to be safer large cap blue chip stocks. The RUT was the first index to make a new all time high when it closed at 873.42 on 1/2/13, then it continues higher until it reached its recent new all time intraday high on 3/15/13 at 954, the day after a new all time close high was made at the value of 953.07 on 3/14/13. On 4/1/13, it broke below a multi-month supporting trend line. Since then, the first 5 days in April resulted in 4 out of 5 down days with only one up day. It broke below a flattening 50 days moving average on 4/3/13, and a relief rally on the following day help it closed slightly above the moving average. On 4/5/13, after an initial selloff caused by the disappointed job report, it spend the entire session similar to rest of the market climbing back to recoup most of the losses from the open and closed near the high of the day. It still ended with a small loss and closed underneath the 50 days moving average. Although the RUT shown some resilience and some strength by printing a hammer like candle with a large body candle, unless it can close above the 932 level, the decline will likely to continue and probably will not encounter any possible support level until it reaches the 896 level, which is also coincide to the 78.6% Fib retracement level.



The tech heavily weighted index Nasdaq 100, NDX continues to struggle to breakout the trading zone between 2770-2820 and found itself ended up trying to hold above its 50 days moving average. Having other big cap tech stocks such as GOOG, AMZN and NFLX joining AAPL on the decline path, the NDX will likely continue to move lower. In the last trading session, this index also broke below its multi-month supporting trend line and it doesn’t appear to be near any support levels until it reaches the 2725 where the 78.6% Fib retracement and its 200 days moving average are stationed.



As for the Dow Jones Transportation index, DJT has been making a lower low, lower high since it closed with a new all time high on 3/14/13 at 6281.24. It also broke its multi-month supporting trend line and its 50 days moving average on an intraday basis during the last trading session. But just as it appears to be heading down to its possible support level of 5780, an oversold rally appeared and helped the index to close above its 50 days moving average and stayed above the supporting trend line with a long handle hammer. The DJT was the first to turn downward and it is currently oversold, the oversold rally could continue until it encounters likely resistance near 6120 area. As for the direction of this index, it needs to move above 6120 and make a new all time high in order to reverse the current downtrend. If it fails to move back and hold above 6120, it could be a long time before this index will breach the all time closing high.



While the DJT starting to establish a downtrend, the Dow Jones Industrial, DJI still sitting near its all time closing high of 14,662.01 made on 4/2/13. This is an expected behavior from the DJI as the Dow Theory put up a big red flag signaling a potential top is in the making (if it has not made a top on 4/2/13) from the DJT non-confirmation. It is also a clear sign of the expected flight to quality rotation near a market top that help the DJI to project a false sense of wellness in the market to the non-informed market watchers and market participants. Since this index broken through its resistance level near the 14,173 on 3/5/13, it reached the 127.2% Fib retracement level where it made its new all time closing high on 4/2/13. If the Dow Theory signal behaves without any distortions from the market manipulators, then the DJI should be heading down toward a test of support near the 14,365 area where the supporting trend line is located. Although this support level might not appears to be that far away from the last closing level of 14,565.20, but by breaching this support level will alter the market sentiment from buy-the-dips to sell-the-rips.



Finally, the SP500, SPX made its new all time closing high on 4/2/13 at 1570.25 but failed to reach the previous all time intraday high of 1576.09 made on 10/11/07 by less than six points. For the serious students of the market, they know what is important is the close, not the intraday numbers which can be fabricated. In a typical market cycle, the DJI is usually the last index to make the new high, not the broader market index such as SP500. This time it appears the laggard was the SP500 or is it? If the market is to behaves in its typical fashion, this imply the DJI could have another non-confirmed new all time high in the near future in order to put this market cycle back into its normal pattern. So we need to ask ourselves “Is this time different?” If you were to take this subtlety and wait for the DJI to make another new all time high, then you could end up waiting for a long, long time. But, there is the possibility that indeed the DJI will make another new high in the near term and get all the remaining sideline money into the trap before it snaps. But in regardless, the market is in a volatile state where it can run up sharply to form the climatic top or it will drop in a violent fashion similar to all the movie watchers are rushing out of the theater when they hear someone scream “Fire!” In the meantime, the SPX recaptured most of its last trading session losses and closed near its intraday high. The likely near term resistance for the SPX will be its recent new high near 1570 area, and the near term support is likely to be near 1530, also where its 50 days moving average is currently located.



As a market watcher and a trader, one needs to listen to the messages the market sends and interpret them accordingly. If one is trying to anticipate what the market will do, the market will surely remind you who is in charge by causing great damage to your ego and more importantly to your trading account. So be patient and tune in to listening to the market not the talking heads. Trade cautiously.

Negative Breadth Developing

Once again, the market continues to march higher. The DJIA closed at another new all time high at 14,662, up 89.2 points, and the SP500 also closed at a new all time high at 1570.25, up 8.08 points. But, the DJT closed down 75.26 points at 6087.04. This created another non-confirmed DJIA closing high. Under the Dow Theory, this non-confirmation indicates a reversal is coming. In addition to the DJT closing on a down note, the Russell 2000 also closed at 934.30, down 4.48 points. Furthermore, some of the market breadth indicators are also showing sign of weakness. All of these signs of weakness and divergence are telling us the market is in the topping process and caution should be applied.

The following video take a closer look at some of the market breadth indicators and the reason for closing the newly established long position on DIS during the after hour extended session.

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The Story Beneath The Surface

As the DJIA and the SP500 continue to make new high, the casual market watchers will think better time is ahead for the market. But for those that watch not only the market indices, those market watchers will know things are not as they appear to be. Beneath the surface of the market indices, there are vital market indicators that gauge the inner strength of the market. The daily advance/decline breadth indicator and the new high/new low are just a couple of these indicators that measure the strength of the market.

As one can see from the chart below, the SP500 has been making numerous new high while the advance/decline and the new high/new low are not expanding into new high. They are actually contracting while the recent new high was being made. This divergence is the first sign indicating the market is getting tire and caution should be exercise to avoid being caught in the market euphoria. As the market top is being made, these market breadth indicators will turn negative in addition to their divergence.

Finally A New All Time High

After a few attempts, the SP500 finally made a new all time high. The question now is where will it go? Looking at the price actions, it appears it wants to go higher until various market breadth indicators get weaker.

Although in the near term the market seems to want to head higher, but couple of the big cap tech stocks appears to be bucking the trend, they are AAPL and GOOG. Both of these stocks are nearing critical support level. If they break below these support levels, they could lead the market down for the long awaited correction or a trend reversal.

Here is a video reviewing the market indices and the price actions for AAPL & GOOG.

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Correction: I inadvertently referred to the fib 161.8 as 168 in this video. It should be 161 extension.




Disclosure: No position on AAPL & GOOG

The Significance Of SP500 New All Time High

Today, the media talking heads had a field day on SP500 watch. The SP500 came within 1.2 points away from matching its all time closing high of 1565.15 and failed to close with a new all time high by less than 2 points. Although the SP500 failed to close with a new all time high, it did close with a new multi-year high of 1563.77 while the DJI closed with another new all time high of 14559.70.

While many market participants and talking heads were watching the SP500 trying to reach a new all time high, the DJT, Nasdaq composite, and the Russell 2000 failed to make a new high. So what is the significance for the SP500 to close with a new all time high after today’s performance? Not much! The reason it doesn’t have much significance is the market is not waiting for the SP500 to help propel it into a new uptrend. To the contrary, the market appears to be waiting for the remaining index, the SP500 to make a new all time high.



Am I calling a market top? Absolutely not. I am not in the business of calling market top or market bottom, I leave that task for the pundits and the talking heads. I learned long time ago it is a fool’s game to try to call the market. What I try to do is to read the market and decipher the message it sends. Sometime I get it right and other time I get it wrong. But one thing I know from years of watching the market is the market will send out signs that it is about to change direction, and some of those signs are starting to appear. Therefore, I will continue to trade defensively by reducing position size and exercising tight stops. I would rather be out of the market wishing I was in than trapped in the market wishing I was out.

A Push To Another All Time High

As the Cyprus sideshow continues, the US market continues to hold onto its high ground. The SP500 continues to flirt with taking out the old all time high of 1565.15. From the market price actions, it appears to be a matter of time that the SP500 will hit its all time high level. Although the market breadth indicators are still in good shape, but the extended move the market has made without a pullback continue to cause traders to be cautious.

Here is a video reviewing the market indices and a look at some momentum stocks such as AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, DDD, NFLX.

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Disclosure: Long AAPL, short AMZN & DDD

Flirting With New High

After the initial pullback from the Cyprus banking problem, the market came roaring back and flirting with making another new all time high. While many disbelieved market participants and talking heads looking for a correction, the market continues to move higher with good breadth. The market will not be near a top until the market breadth starts to deteriorate.

Here is a video reviewing the market indices and a follow up review on the stocks that were highlighted from previous video.



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