A Perfect Storm For The Market?

Next week, some large cap tech stocks are schedule to report their earnings, and the FED is meeting to decide the next move on US interest rate along with lots of economic reports. It could be lining up for a perfect storm for the market to make a big move in either direction.

In this video, we will look at some possible price action for the market and the following momo stocks: AAPL, FB, AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA, NFLX & TWTR.

Which Party Is Responsible?

As the 2016 US Presidential election approaches, Americans are being bombarded with politically biased materials to point finger at the opposing party for the country’s lackluster economic performance, and to compare historically how the US economy performed better under a particular political party. The truth of the matter is both political parties are equally responsible for our country’s mess. There are materials presented to highlight how the stock market had performed better under one political party in power than the other political party. The bottom line is this, “Did either political party made you, your children and your grand children more financially secure for the future?”

If you really love your country, then focus on how to fix our political system instead of laying blames at the opposing party! And don't forget to vote and exercise your rights.

"If you don't vote, you can't complain!"

Here are some views on how both parties are equally responsible for our country’s financial situation.

Mid Week Market & Stocks Update - 4/19/2016

A brief update on the market and these momo stocks: AAPL, FB, AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA, NFLX, TWTR.

Unsettled

The market continues to be unsettled as it is attempting to make a turn. Since the DJI & SPX made a new closing low on Feb 11, 2016 off from their all time closing high, the breadth has been improving. Recently, that improvement appears to have stalled and the breadth started to show some divergence. In addition to a diverging breadth, the non-confirmed recovery high based on the Dow Theory remains unresolved. Until the divergence and the non-confirmation issues are resolved, one should continue to be on the defensive and be very selective on either side of the trade, long or short.

Market Iterates Cautionary Message

Today’s price action in the market might be viewed as dull to some participants, but the message it sent was very informative to the market watchers.

Was It An April Fool And What Just Happened?

Did you see what the market did on April 1, 2016? No, it was not an April fool. It was a positive close with negative breadth. You might ask what does that mean. Well, if you have been following and/or trading the market for the last couple of weeks, then you have already experienced it; the pullback. Before April 1st, there was a non-confirmed Dow Theory recovery high on March 29, and that was the first message the market sent out to alert us to be cautious. When the positive close with negative breadth occurred on April 1, the market told us to be prepared for pullback. Since April 1, the market had a mild pullback with the SP500 losing 30.79 points or 1.48% on a closing basis and negative for the year, while the DJI lost 236.34 points or 1.3% but remains positive for the year.

Nothing Is New!

The market continues to climb higher as many market participants continue to ponder on when it will rollover and experience a sizeable correction to remove the excess. Many have put forth technical corollaries to point out the similarities from the past and the consequences it might hold. Numerous price derivative indicators highlighting excessive overbought have been published to support the cries for a correction from these market participants.

Back In Sync

Yesterday I warned about the negative divergence that the market has been displaying for the last couple of trading sessions, and this negative divergence needs to be resolved or another extended pullback such as the one we have experienced from May 19, 2015 to February 11, 2016 could appear.

Caution!

The market has been holding on to a negative divergence in the last couple trading sessions. Today, the market sent a non-confirmed recovery high with negative breadth message to warn of potential change in direction. Until this divergence has dissipated, be very cautious on overly extended toward the long side. If this negative divergence does not get resolved soon, be prepared for a possible extended downward move. Last time the market sent out this similar message was on May 19, 2015, and the Dow Jones Industrial did not see a higher high since and only on February 11, 2016 when the Dow Jones Industrial put in a non-confirmed low to start this recent rally. Will today’s message result in a similar outcome as the May 19, 2015? We just have to wait and see.

Just a reminder, tomorrow the FOMC will announce its latest decision on interest rate, and Chairwoman Yellen will hold a press conference after the FOMC meeting. Beware of potential increase in volatility!

Coming Through

The market is coming through the level we've been monitoring, the September 2015 FOMC pivot high. Last week, market did a minor pullback after five consecutive up days and then it resumed it's upward move toward weekly OpEx. Next week, FOMC will hold its March meeting and the anticipation is there will not be another rate hike in March. As the meeting approaches, the market could experience an increase in volatility. Therefore, one should remain cautious and do not attempt to trade in front of the FED as anything can happen. Always expect the unexpected.

Time For A Pause

The market has been up for four consecutive day and it could be time for a pause before it continues to move higher.

In this video, a review of the market’s price action along with these momo stocks: AAPL, FB, NFLX, TWTR, AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA, and the crude oil, gold, long term treasuries and the US dollar futures.

Resolved

Today’s rally has resolved the concerns that I have expressed in the post "Likely To Go Higher". The divergence between the DJ Industrial and the DJ Transportation has been rectified and the Dow Theory non-confirmed low remains to be valid. More importantly, the breadth indicator that did not provide the confirmation came through with a validation that the current upward move is supported by market breadth.

Here are the updated charts for DJI, DJT and SPX. The levels below the price are potential supports and levels above the price are potential resistance/target.

Likely To Go Higher

One thing I have learned a long time ago is that the market will never ring the bell to inform us it has made a top or a bottom, or it has changed direction. I also have learned the market never hides its intention and it will always let us know what it plans to do. What it doesn’t tell us is where, when and how.

Market Still Hanging On

The market still hanging on after a nice bounce off the recent low near 1800. Although the SP500 did not get above the potential double bottom pivot, it hasn't collapsed back to the recent low. It could be simply digesting some of the recent gains before it makes another attempt to break above the pivot high and move to retest last September FOMC meeting level near 2020 on the SPX.

In this video, a review on what the crude oil, gold and the stock market did last week and what to monitor for the coming week. In addition, a review of the following MOMO stocks: AAPL, FB, NFLX, TWTR, AMZN, GOOGL & TSLA.

It's Not All Magic!

Sometime things do appear to be magic, but do not be fooled, there is nothing magically about the market. The market is a reflection of the human emotion; how it react to various news announcements, geopolitical events, rumors, etc. If one simply focus on the price action and how it is being auctioned up and down, then one can see there is nothing magically about the price, it is all about what the market participants perceived as value.

In this video, we will look at the futures for crude, gold, bonds, US dollar, the indices along with the cash indices to get a sense where it might be headed in the near term. In addition, we will look at these MOMO stocks: AAPL, FB, NFLX, TWTR, AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA, and see what they might do in the near term.

The Magic Of Symmetry

The world operates in a mysterious way. There are things that just can’t be explained and act as it is magic, and one of those things is the Fibonacci symmetry.

A Negative Start

February started with a negative tone. The SPX ended the week by losing 60.19 points or -3.1%. New low still outnumber new high, but the advance/decline is holding up while the index is making lower low. This slight positive divergence could be signaling a near term bounce.

Move On Up

After Friday's rally, many market participants were disappointed on Monday by a lack of follow through rally. Instead of a rally, the market sold off on Monday and that prompted many market participants to question once again whether the market is entering into a bear market.

Magic Carpet Ride

Here is what has transpired for the SPX, ES_F and the SPY. Hope you are enjoying the magic carpet ride!

The Magic Continues

The market continues to hold above its 1/20/2016 low and appears be headed higher in the near term. Take a look at the following charts and observe how the price converges toward a particular level, sometime it seems like magic!