Still Watching

The market pulled back in the recent week and it appears to be setting up for a possible bounce. As the market waits for the next FOMC interest rate decision, we will continue to watch for a bounce that might lead to a retest of the all time high.

Beware Of The Obvious

There is an obvious price pattern on the price chart for the SPY and the emini SP500 futures. That obvious price pattern is the head & shoulder. Not saying all head & shoulder patterns will fail, but if one put the price pattern within the context of the market breadth indicators, one needs to beware of the obvious! Although there has been a recent minor pullback, but the market indicators on my watch list have not turned negative. If this H&S pattern breaks along with deteriorating market breadth, then the prudent thing to do is to wait for a potential retest of the neckline before considering a move toward the downside. In the meantime, be defensive and be cautious as the market attempts to re-establish a near term direction.

Continuation

The market is still continuing to consolidate for the next potential upward move. In this video, a review of the market's price action and some potential near term moves for these momo stocks: AAPL, FB, AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA, NFLX & TWTR.

A Perfect Storm For The Market?

Next week, some large cap tech stocks are schedule to report their earnings, and the FED is meeting to decide the next move on US interest rate along with lots of economic reports. It could be lining up for a perfect storm for the market to make a big move in either direction.

In this video, we will look at some possible price action for the market and the following momo stocks: AAPL, FB, AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA, NFLX & TWTR.

Which Party Is Responsible?

As the 2016 US Presidential election approaches, Americans are being bombarded with politically biased materials to point finger at the opposing party for the country’s lackluster economic performance, and to compare historically how the US economy performed better under a particular political party. The truth of the matter is both political parties are equally responsible for our country’s mess. There are materials presented to highlight how the stock market had performed better under one political party in power than the other political party. The bottom line is this, “Did either political party made you, your children and your grand children more financially secure for the future?”

If you really love your country, then focus on how to fix our political system instead of laying blames at the opposing party! And don't forget to vote and exercise your rights.

"If you don't vote, you can't complain!"

Here are some views on how both parties are equally responsible for our country’s financial situation.

Mid Week Market & Stocks Update - 4/19/2016

A brief update on the market and these momo stocks: AAPL, FB, AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA, NFLX, TWTR.

Unsettled

The market continues to be unsettled as it is attempting to make a turn. Since the DJI & SPX made a new closing low on Feb 11, 2016 off from their all time closing high, the breadth has been improving. Recently, that improvement appears to have stalled and the breadth started to show some divergence. In addition to a diverging breadth, the non-confirmed recovery high based on the Dow Theory remains unresolved. Until the divergence and the non-confirmation issues are resolved, one should continue to be on the defensive and be very selective on either side of the trade, long or short.

Market Iterates Cautionary Message

Today’s price action in the market might be viewed as dull to some participants, but the message it sent was very informative to the market watchers.

Was It An April Fool And What Just Happened?

Did you see what the market did on April 1, 2016? No, it was not an April fool. It was a positive close with negative breadth. You might ask what does that mean. Well, if you have been following and/or trading the market for the last couple of weeks, then you have already experienced it; the pullback. Before April 1st, there was a non-confirmed Dow Theory recovery high on March 29, and that was the first message the market sent out to alert us to be cautious. When the positive close with negative breadth occurred on April 1, the market told us to be prepared for pullback. Since April 1, the market had a mild pullback with the SP500 losing 30.79 points or 1.48% on a closing basis and negative for the year, while the DJI lost 236.34 points or 1.3% but remains positive for the year.

Nothing Is New!

The market continues to climb higher as many market participants continue to ponder on when it will rollover and experience a sizeable correction to remove the excess. Many have put forth technical corollaries to point out the similarities from the past and the consequences it might hold. Numerous price derivative indicators highlighting excessive overbought have been published to support the cries for a correction from these market participants.

Back In Sync

Yesterday I warned about the negative divergence that the market has been displaying for the last couple of trading sessions, and this negative divergence needs to be resolved or another extended pullback such as the one we have experienced from May 19, 2015 to February 11, 2016 could appear.

Caution!

The market has been holding on to a negative divergence in the last couple trading sessions. Today, the market sent a non-confirmed recovery high with negative breadth message to warn of potential change in direction. Until this divergence has dissipated, be very cautious on overly extended toward the long side. If this negative divergence does not get resolved soon, be prepared for a possible extended downward move. Last time the market sent out this similar message was on May 19, 2015, and the Dow Jones Industrial did not see a higher high since and only on February 11, 2016 when the Dow Jones Industrial put in a non-confirmed low to start this recent rally. Will today’s message result in a similar outcome as the May 19, 2015? We just have to wait and see.

Just a reminder, tomorrow the FOMC will announce its latest decision on interest rate, and Chairwoman Yellen will hold a press conference after the FOMC meeting. Beware of potential increase in volatility!

Coming Through

The market is coming through the level we've been monitoring, the September 2015 FOMC pivot high. Last week, market did a minor pullback after five consecutive up days and then it resumed it's upward move toward weekly OpEx. Next week, FOMC will hold its March meeting and the anticipation is there will not be another rate hike in March. As the meeting approaches, the market could experience an increase in volatility. Therefore, one should remain cautious and do not attempt to trade in front of the FED as anything can happen. Always expect the unexpected.

Time For A Pause

The market has been up for four consecutive day and it could be time for a pause before it continues to move higher.

In this video, a review of the market’s price action along with these momo stocks: AAPL, FB, NFLX, TWTR, AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA, and the crude oil, gold, long term treasuries and the US dollar futures.

Resolved

Today’s rally has resolved the concerns that I have expressed in the post "Likely To Go Higher". The divergence between the DJ Industrial and the DJ Transportation has been rectified and the Dow Theory non-confirmed low remains to be valid. More importantly, the breadth indicator that did not provide the confirmation came through with a validation that the current upward move is supported by market breadth.

Here are the updated charts for DJI, DJT and SPX. The levels below the price are potential supports and levels above the price are potential resistance/target.

Likely To Go Higher

One thing I have learned a long time ago is that the market will never ring the bell to inform us it has made a top or a bottom, or it has changed direction. I also have learned the market never hides its intention and it will always let us know what it plans to do. What it doesn’t tell us is where, when and how.

Market Still Hanging On

The market still hanging on after a nice bounce off the recent low near 1800. Although the SP500 did not get above the potential double bottom pivot, it hasn't collapsed back to the recent low. It could be simply digesting some of the recent gains before it makes another attempt to break above the pivot high and move to retest last September FOMC meeting level near 2020 on the SPX.

In this video, a review on what the crude oil, gold and the stock market did last week and what to monitor for the coming week. In addition, a review of the following MOMO stocks: AAPL, FB, NFLX, TWTR, AMZN, GOOGL & TSLA.

It's Not All Magic!

Sometime things do appear to be magic, but do not be fooled, there is nothing magically about the market. The market is a reflection of the human emotion; how it react to various news announcements, geopolitical events, rumors, etc. If one simply focus on the price action and how it is being auctioned up and down, then one can see there is nothing magically about the price, it is all about what the market participants perceived as value.

In this video, we will look at the futures for crude, gold, bonds, US dollar, the indices along with the cash indices to get a sense where it might be headed in the near term. In addition, we will look at these MOMO stocks: AAPL, FB, NFLX, TWTR, AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA, and see what they might do in the near term.

The Magic Of Symmetry

The world operates in a mysterious way. There are things that just can’t be explained and act as it is magic, and one of those things is the Fibonacci symmetry.

A Negative Start

February started with a negative tone. The SPX ended the week by losing 60.19 points or -3.1%. New low still outnumber new high, but the advance/decline is holding up while the index is making lower low. This slight positive divergence could be signaling a near term bounce.

Move On Up

After Friday's rally, many market participants were disappointed on Monday by a lack of follow through rally. Instead of a rally, the market sold off on Monday and that prompted many market participants to question once again whether the market is entering into a bear market.

Magic Carpet Ride

Here is what has transpired for the SPX, ES_F and the SPY. Hope you are enjoying the magic carpet ride!

The Magic Continues

The market continues to hold above its 1/20/2016 low and appears be headed higher in the near term. Take a look at the following charts and observe how the price converges toward a particular level, sometime it seems like magic!

Still Being Built

Do not be spooked by today's FOMC announcement selloff. The play has not changed, the right shoulder for the SPX is still being built. These two posts discussed the potential head & shoulder pattern and the forming of the right shoulder: "Fibonacci Magic" and "What Did The Market Do?" Here's the updated intraday chart for the SP500 emini futures and what price actions to watch for the coming days.

Fibonacci Magic

Last Sunday, I put up a post "What Did The Market Do?" which I presented a possible scenario on what the SP500 index might do in the coming days or weeks. In this video, I will present how the current potential relief rally might lead to the scenario I have presented for the SPX using the SP500 Emini Futures.

What Did The Market Do?

Last Wednesday, January 20, 2016, many market internals reached extreme on the negative side. The U/DVOL was more than 20 to 1 favoring the downside during the flush, the A/D line was almost completely dominated by the decliners, and the new high-new low fell below August 24,2015 level. It was like a panic flush. Go back and take a look at the 1/20/2015 morning TICK and see for yourself how many of them dipped below -1000.

Valiant Effort

The market gave a valiant effort on trying to recover from its session loss but fell short at the end. The breadth showed improvement as the buying starts to accelerate and squeezing out some of shorts. The rotation from the A/D line once again gave the clue to be on the lookout for a reversal. The NDX was positive for a brief period with a slight positive breadth. But at the end, the momentum just wasn't there to carry it through with a positive close. Remarkably, the RUT closed with a small gain of +4.45 points.

During the trading session, extremity in the U/DVOL, A/D and new high-new low occurred. This casts doubt on any sustainable rise for the market. Any rally should be viewed as oversold or dead cat bounce until a confirmed low has been made.

AAPL Setup For Earnings

Since the end of last July, AAPL has been on a skid. Recently, lots of talk about AAPL could disappoint on the upcoming earnings report due to Iphone sales slowdown.

Holding On

The market continues to hold above the last August low. The SP500 opened strong, then it faded as the A/D line started to reverse and went negative. Downside momentum dominated throughout the session until the last hour of trading, then the A/D started to reverse a bit and the tick started to show some buying coming into the market. The SPX printed an inside bar spinning top candle, showing indecision. For the non-short term traders, one might consider staying on the sideline until the market give more clarify on its near term intention.

The Confluent

One of the reasons for watching multiple possible scenarios is to identify potential confluent. As there are more setups projecting a similar price target, a greater chance the price will converge to that target level. The SP500 Emini Futures displayed a confluent at the 1900.75 level in the overnight session. Three different setups were projecting a possible price target near 1900.75. The first setup is from a longer time frame Fibonacci retracement, second setup is a Fibonacce retracement from a shorter time frame, and the third setup is the Fibonacci extension via a possible bull flag measured move. The confluent from these setups does not guarantee the 1900.75 level will be hit, it simply imply a higher probability that the price will reach this level. And this time, the odds played out and the price tagged the 1900.75 before it pulled back.

ES_F:

Waiting For Confirmation

Finally, the long awaited test of the August low has arrived. The SPX went below August 24, 2015 low when it dipped down to 1857.83. The DJI held above the August 24, 2015 low, but it did come down to test the September 29, 2015 low of 15,942.37. The NDX didn’t drop down to test its September 29 low of 4053.12, it didn’t even test that day’s close. The RUT continues its downward trajectory and put in another new low from its high.

Stocks To Watch

So far in the new year, the market has not been very kind to the longs. But don't be despaired, a dead cat bounce might be in the offing. Before you dive in on anything that bounce, pay attention to the earnings date as the new earnings season has just begun.

Broken Down?

In my last post, "Shaky Start", I stated there is a positive breadth divergence and that a rally could soon appear. Although the market continues to drop last Thursday and Friday, the positive divergence still has not dissipated but is getting close to be back in sync. As a good student of the market, I will wait until the divergence has disappeared to give up on the expectation of a dead cat rally. And if we look at the latest price action, things have not broken down as the market lead us to believe, at least not yet!

A Shaky Start

So far, the market started 2016 with a lot of shakings. The SP500, SPX has lost 53.68 points or -2.6% after the first three days of trading. Many are wondering is this the beginning of the long overdue ‘bear’ market. Whether it is or not, let’s take a look at what the market has been telling us.

2016 Came In With A Bang!

Happy 2016 everyone. What a start for the new year. Market came down hard, and many blame the China market for the drop. But whatever the reason, this drop seem to be in the work for the last couple weeks. In this video, we will take a look at the indexes and their respective ETF along with these MOMO stocks: AAPL, FB, BABA, NFLX, TWTR, AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA and IBB.

2015 Market Recap

2015 has been one of the most difficult year for many traders, myself included. Before we start trading in 2016, let's take a look at how the market had performed in 2015.