A Perfect Storm For The Market?

Next week, some large cap tech stocks are schedule to report their earnings, and the FED is meeting to decide the next move on US interest rate along with lots of economic reports. It could be lining up for a perfect storm for the market to make a big move in either direction.

In this video, we will look at some possible price action for the market and the following momo stocks: AAPL, FB, AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA, NFLX & TWTR.

Which Party Is Responsible?

As the 2016 US Presidential election approaches, Americans are being bombarded with politically biased materials to point finger at the opposing party for the country’s lackluster economic performance, and to compare historically how the US economy performed better under a particular political party. The truth of the matter is both political parties are equally responsible for our country’s mess. There are materials presented to highlight how the stock market had performed better under one political party in power than the other political party. The bottom line is this, “Did either political party made you, your children and your grand children more financially secure for the future?”

If you really love your country, then focus on how to fix our political system instead of laying blames at the opposing party! And don't forget to vote and exercise your rights.

"If you don't vote, you can't complain!"

Here are some views on how both parties are equally responsible for our country’s financial situation.

Mid Week Market & Stocks Update - 4/19/2016

A brief update on the market and these momo stocks: AAPL, FB, AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA, NFLX, TWTR.

Unsettled

The market continues to be unsettled as it is attempting to make a turn. Since the DJI & SPX made a new closing low on Feb 11, 2016 off from their all time closing high, the breadth has been improving. Recently, that improvement appears to have stalled and the breadth started to show some divergence. In addition to a diverging breadth, the non-confirmed recovery high based on the Dow Theory remains unresolved. Until the divergence and the non-confirmation issues are resolved, one should continue to be on the defensive and be very selective on either side of the trade, long or short.

Market Iterates Cautionary Message

Today’s price action in the market might be viewed as dull to some participants, but the message it sent was very informative to the market watchers.

Was It An April Fool And What Just Happened?

Did you see what the market did on April 1, 2016? No, it was not an April fool. It was a positive close with negative breadth. You might ask what does that mean. Well, if you have been following and/or trading the market for the last couple of weeks, then you have already experienced it; the pullback. Before April 1st, there was a non-confirmed Dow Theory recovery high on March 29, and that was the first message the market sent out to alert us to be cautious. When the positive close with negative breadth occurred on April 1, the market told us to be prepared for pullback. Since April 1, the market had a mild pullback with the SP500 losing 30.79 points or 1.48% on a closing basis and negative for the year, while the DJI lost 236.34 points or 1.3% but remains positive for the year.

Nothing Is New!

The market continues to climb higher as many market participants continue to ponder on when it will rollover and experience a sizeable correction to remove the excess. Many have put forth technical corollaries to point out the similarities from the past and the consequences it might hold. Numerous price derivative indicators highlighting excessive overbought have been published to support the cries for a correction from these market participants.

Back In Sync

Yesterday I warned about the negative divergence that the market has been displaying for the last couple of trading sessions, and this negative divergence needs to be resolved or another extended pullback such as the one we have experienced from May 19, 2015 to February 11, 2016 could appear.

Caution!

The market has been holding on to a negative divergence in the last couple trading sessions. Today, the market sent a non-confirmed recovery high with negative breadth message to warn of potential change in direction. Until this divergence has dissipated, be very cautious on overly extended toward the long side. If this negative divergence does not get resolved soon, be prepared for a possible extended downward move. Last time the market sent out this similar message was on May 19, 2015, and the Dow Jones Industrial did not see a higher high since and only on February 11, 2016 when the Dow Jones Industrial put in a non-confirmed low to start this recent rally. Will today’s message result in a similar outcome as the May 19, 2015? We just have to wait and see.

Just a reminder, tomorrow the FOMC will announce its latest decision on interest rate, and Chairwoman Yellen will hold a press conference after the FOMC meeting. Beware of potential increase in volatility!

Coming Through

The market is coming through the level we've been monitoring, the September 2015 FOMC pivot high. Last week, market did a minor pullback after five consecutive up days and then it resumed it's upward move toward weekly OpEx. Next week, FOMC will hold its March meeting and the anticipation is there will not be another rate hike in March. As the meeting approaches, the market could experience an increase in volatility. Therefore, one should remain cautious and do not attempt to trade in front of the FED as anything can happen. Always expect the unexpected.

Time For A Pause

The market has been up for four consecutive day and it could be time for a pause before it continues to move higher.

In this video, a review of the market’s price action along with these momo stocks: AAPL, FB, NFLX, TWTR, AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA, and the crude oil, gold, long term treasuries and the US dollar futures.

Resolved

Today’s rally has resolved the concerns that I have expressed in the post "Likely To Go Higher". The divergence between the DJ Industrial and the DJ Transportation has been rectified and the Dow Theory non-confirmed low remains to be valid. More importantly, the breadth indicator that did not provide the confirmation came through with a validation that the current upward move is supported by market breadth.

Here are the updated charts for DJI, DJT and SPX. The levels below the price are potential supports and levels above the price are potential resistance/target.

Likely To Go Higher

One thing I have learned a long time ago is that the market will never ring the bell to inform us it has made a top or a bottom, or it has changed direction. I also have learned the market never hides its intention and it will always let us know what it plans to do. What it doesn’t tell us is where, when and how.

Market Still Hanging On

The market still hanging on after a nice bounce off the recent low near 1800. Although the SP500 did not get above the potential double bottom pivot, it hasn't collapsed back to the recent low. It could be simply digesting some of the recent gains before it makes another attempt to break above the pivot high and move to retest last September FOMC meeting level near 2020 on the SPX.

In this video, a review on what the crude oil, gold and the stock market did last week and what to monitor for the coming week. In addition, a review of the following MOMO stocks: AAPL, FB, NFLX, TWTR, AMZN, GOOGL & TSLA.

It's Not All Magic!

Sometime things do appear to be magic, but do not be fooled, there is nothing magically about the market. The market is a reflection of the human emotion; how it react to various news announcements, geopolitical events, rumors, etc. If one simply focus on the price action and how it is being auctioned up and down, then one can see there is nothing magically about the price, it is all about what the market participants perceived as value.

In this video, we will look at the futures for crude, gold, bonds, US dollar, the indices along with the cash indices to get a sense where it might be headed in the near term. In addition, we will look at these MOMO stocks: AAPL, FB, NFLX, TWTR, AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA, and see what they might do in the near term.

The Magic Of Symmetry

The world operates in a mysterious way. There are things that just can’t be explained and act as it is magic, and one of those things is the Fibonacci symmetry.

A Negative Start

February started with a negative tone. The SPX ended the week by losing 60.19 points or -3.1%. New low still outnumber new high, but the advance/decline is holding up while the index is making lower low. This slight positive divergence could be signaling a near term bounce.

Move On Up

After Friday's rally, many market participants were disappointed on Monday by a lack of follow through rally. Instead of a rally, the market sold off on Monday and that prompted many market participants to question once again whether the market is entering into a bear market.

Magic Carpet Ride

Here is what has transpired for the SPX, ES_F and the SPY. Hope you are enjoying the magic carpet ride!

The Magic Continues

The market continues to hold above its 1/20/2016 low and appears be headed higher in the near term. Take a look at the following charts and observe how the price converges toward a particular level, sometime it seems like magic!

Still Being Built

Do not be spooked by today's FOMC announcement selloff. The play has not changed, the right shoulder for the SPX is still being built. These two posts discussed the potential head & shoulder pattern and the forming of the right shoulder: "Fibonacci Magic" and "What Did The Market Do?" Here's the updated intraday chart for the SP500 emini futures and what price actions to watch for the coming days.

Fibonacci Magic

Last Sunday, I put up a post "What Did The Market Do?" which I presented a possible scenario on what the SP500 index might do in the coming days or weeks. In this video, I will present how the current potential relief rally might lead to the scenario I have presented for the SPX using the SP500 Emini Futures.

What Did The Market Do?

Last Wednesday, January 20, 2016, many market internals reached extreme on the negative side. The U/DVOL was more than 20 to 1 favoring the downside during the flush, the A/D line was almost completely dominated by the decliners, and the new high-new low fell below August 24,2015 level. It was like a panic flush. Go back and take a look at the 1/20/2015 morning TICK and see for yourself how many of them dipped below -1000.

Valiant Effort

The market gave a valiant effort on trying to recover from its session loss but fell short at the end. The breadth showed improvement as the buying starts to accelerate and squeezing out some of shorts. The rotation from the A/D line once again gave the clue to be on the lookout for a reversal. The NDX was positive for a brief period with a slight positive breadth. But at the end, the momentum just wasn't there to carry it through with a positive close. Remarkably, the RUT closed with a small gain of +4.45 points.

During the trading session, extremity in the U/DVOL, A/D and new high-new low occurred. This casts doubt on any sustainable rise for the market. Any rally should be viewed as oversold or dead cat bounce until a confirmed low has been made.

AAPL Setup For Earnings

Since the end of last July, AAPL has been on a skid. Recently, lots of talk about AAPL could disappoint on the upcoming earnings report due to Iphone sales slowdown.

Holding On

The market continues to hold above the last August low. The SP500 opened strong, then it faded as the A/D line started to reverse and went negative. Downside momentum dominated throughout the session until the last hour of trading, then the A/D started to reverse a bit and the tick started to show some buying coming into the market. The SPX printed an inside bar spinning top candle, showing indecision. For the non-short term traders, one might consider staying on the sideline until the market give more clarify on its near term intention.

The Confluent

One of the reasons for watching multiple possible scenarios is to identify potential confluent. As there are more setups projecting a similar price target, a greater chance the price will converge to that target level. The SP500 Emini Futures displayed a confluent at the 1900.75 level in the overnight session. Three different setups were projecting a possible price target near 1900.75. The first setup is from a longer time frame Fibonacci retracement, second setup is a Fibonacce retracement from a shorter time frame, and the third setup is the Fibonacci extension via a possible bull flag measured move. The confluent from these setups does not guarantee the 1900.75 level will be hit, it simply imply a higher probability that the price will reach this level. And this time, the odds played out and the price tagged the 1900.75 before it pulled back.

ES_F:

Waiting For Confirmation

Finally, the long awaited test of the August low has arrived. The SPX went below August 24, 2015 low when it dipped down to 1857.83. The DJI held above the August 24, 2015 low, but it did come down to test the September 29, 2015 low of 15,942.37. The NDX didn’t drop down to test its September 29 low of 4053.12, it didn’t even test that day’s close. The RUT continues its downward trajectory and put in another new low from its high.

Stocks To Watch

So far in the new year, the market has not been very kind to the longs. But don't be despaired, a dead cat bounce might be in the offing. Before you dive in on anything that bounce, pay attention to the earnings date as the new earnings season has just begun.

Broken Down?

In my last post, "Shaky Start", I stated there is a positive breadth divergence and that a rally could soon appear. Although the market continues to drop last Thursday and Friday, the positive divergence still has not dissipated but is getting close to be back in sync. As a good student of the market, I will wait until the divergence has disappeared to give up on the expectation of a dead cat rally. And if we look at the latest price action, things have not broken down as the market lead us to believe, at least not yet!

A Shaky Start

So far, the market started 2016 with a lot of shakings. The SP500, SPX has lost 53.68 points or -2.6% after the first three days of trading. Many are wondering is this the beginning of the long overdue ‘bear’ market. Whether it is or not, let’s take a look at what the market has been telling us.

2016 Came In With A Bang!

Happy 2016 everyone. What a start for the new year. Market came down hard, and many blame the China market for the drop. But whatever the reason, this drop seem to be in the work for the last couple weeks. In this video, we will take a look at the indexes and their respective ETF along with these MOMO stocks: AAPL, FB, BABA, NFLX, TWTR, AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA and IBB.

2015 Market Recap

2015 has been one of the most difficult year for many traders, myself included. Before we start trading in 2016, let's take a look at how the market had performed in 2015.

Here's How They Look

Although there is still one more trading session left in 2015, here is how the market indices look as of the last trading session in 2015.

This Looks Like A Top

Lots of people been calling the start of a bear market and saying the market has topped. From what I have seen in the past, the current price formation on the SPY chart doesn't look like a top to me.

Still On Path

On December 1, 2015, I've posted a chart of the Nasdaq 100 ETF, QQQ highlighting the trajectory to the 2000 tech bubble high. Here is an updated chart of the QQQ showing it is still on path toward the all time high level at 120.50. From the chart, barring any black swan event, one can estimate the target will likely be hit in January or early February of 2016. This historical milestone might trigger a climactic move that could resulted in a major market reversal.

Another Round Of Holiday Cheers

For those that were waiting for Santa’s rally last week were not disappointed. Santa arrived just in time to spread the holiday cheers before Wall St shuts down for the Christmas holiday. Now Christmas had passed and the New Year is approaching, Wall St is getting ready for another round of holiday cheers to welcome in 2016.

Still Waiting

Last week, the FED raised the Fed Fund Rate for the first time in more than 7 years, and the market around the globe rallied off that news until it got back to NY the follow day, then a funny thing happened, the market started to fall. It gave up all the gains from the rate hike rally and more, and the SP500 had an 83 point swing last week and ended the week at 2005.55, a loss of 6.83 points or 0.34% from previous week. As Christmas holidays approaching, market participants are still waiting for Santa to show up and sprinkle some holiday cheers to get the end of the year rally going. Looking at the recent internals, there appears to be some divergence that could be pointing to a Santa's Rally to commence very shortly, just in time before the holiday break.

FED Decided To Hike

The FED has decided to hike the rate by a quarter of a percent, 0.25% today. The market has essentially pinned the FED into the hole it has dug for itself, and it is more like damn if you do and damn if you don't. The FED didn't have much of a choice but to raise even with the backdrop of an impending recession. Now the market will celebrate for a while until it realizes the potential ramification of the rate hike will have on the economy. For now, it's onward to 2016 and Santa rally time!

Here are some DOW stocks you might want to watch for possible year end move.

Market & Stock Updates - 12/15/2015

Here is a look at some of the levels for the market indices and momo stocks before the interest rate annuncement from the FED. Stocks being covered in the video are: AAPL, FB, NFLX, AMZN, GOOGL, BABA along with these index ETFs: SPY IWM & QQQ.

Oil Prices

Everyone is calling for lower oil prices and with the level on oil inventory along with 'don't stop the pump' from Saudi Arabia, it is logical to expect lower prices. After all, it is the first law of economics; supply and demand! But as most things in life, it is not so black and white. There are always external factors that make everything ideal to be more reality, some people call them second order effects and I call them unintentional consequences. Whatever one might call these external effects, they do alter the pricing equation based on supply and demand. For oil, it is what one might call "Geopolitical effects."

Hike Or No Hike

If you have listened to all the talking heads speaking about the possibility of a rate hike from the upcoming FOMC meeting, you might have walked away thinking the rate hike from the FED is a foregone conclusion. After next Wednesday, it will be a foregone conclusion on whether the FED did or did not hike the interest rate. But in the meantime, here are some charts for you to muddle a bit and see if indeed it is a foregone conclusion that the rate hike is imminent.

Are You In?

Looks like not everyone is in on the rate hike. Are you?

Gold Miners Updates

Here are the updates for the miners that were discussed in this post "Gold Miners" for possible swing long. Click on the chart to enlarge the image to read the commentary.

Market Updates - 12/6/2015

As the last FOMC meeting for 2015 approaches, the market will once again try to position to what it believes to be the probable interest rate move from the FED. Next week the retail sales & consumer sentiment report will give the market a glimpse on how the Christmas season might turn out for the retailers.

MOMO Stock Updates - 12/6/2015

In this video, a review of the recent price action and the price levels to watch for the following stocks: AAPL, FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, TWTR, TSLA, IBB, BABA.

Market Update - 12/3/2015

Market continues its pullback and testing its near term support. On a larger time frame, the market still appears to be trending higher. Signs of weakening breadth started to appear, but the presence of weakening breadth doesn't mean the market cannot continue to move higher. The market typically halt its ascend after a euphoric or a climactic move followed by a narrowing one last grasp of a new high. At the present, the market appears to be setting up for a euphoric move more than it appears to be setting up for a roll over. In regardless what the market breadth is saying or whatever the fundamental is projecting, the price behavior will ultimately inform the attentive participants what lies ahead.

Gold Miners

Recent low made by some of the gold miner stocks could be setting up for a bounce back toward previous pivot high. Here are a few of these mining stocks.

New All Time High For MSFT?

Will MSFT make a new all time high when the QQQ tag the tech bubble high? Here's a monthly chart of MSFT. You make the call!

How's Russell?

Here is a weekly chart of the Russell 2000 ETF, IWM. How does it look to you?

What Do You See?

Here is a weekly chart of the SPY with a revised price channel extending from 2009 to the present. What do you see? An imminent breakdown or a potential new high?

Trajectory: Tech Bubble All Time High

Here is a monthly chart of the QQQ showing it is on a trajectory toward the tech bubble all time high made in March of 2000.

Something To Take Notice!

Market displayed a divergence with the A/D line on the last SPX pull back to 2020ish level. The bounce off from this latest pull back failed to exceed pre-pullback pivot high. As the current pullback is taking its course, the A/D line will be the key breadth indicator to watch. Near term potential support level for the SPX is near 2056 level on a closing basis, and the potential resistance is near the 2110 level.

How High Can This Market Go?

Announcement: This will be my last blog post until after Thanksgiving. I will be away for a few weeks on my long overdue vacation. I will resume blogging after Thanksgiving. Until then, I wish you and your family a Happy Thanksgiving!


Since the September 29 close, the market has been on an upward trajectory that has made many market participants scratching their head and wondering how high this market can go without a pullback. The simple answer is, “It can go higher than anyone might believe.” In other words, don’t waste time focusing on how high the market can go, focus on how to ride the trend as long as it is here. The market will stop going higher when it has decided to stop rising. Simple as that!

Trade Monitor For WYNN

After a pull back from the recent earnings report, WYNN has found support at the low 60s. It been trending with a higher low and could be setting up a potential swing long opportunity.

Weekly Market Recap & Stock Updates - 11/1/2015

A review of the market and the following stocks: AAPL, FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, TWTR, TSLA, IBB, GS, BABA.

Stock Updates - 10/28/2015

An update for these stocks: AAPL, FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, TWTR, TSLA, IBB, BAC, MS, C, JPM & GS.

Market Recap - 10/28/2015

Today was FOMC announcement day and as expected, no rate hike. Just moment before the announcement, the market was up with the DJI up more than 100 points. Within minutes, most of these gains were wiped out by the negative reaction to the FED statement stating it is worrying about the global slow down. As quickly as the market sold off, buyers step in and bought the market back up. At the close, the market ended higher than it was when the FOMC announcement came out. It is almost like the flip image of last FOMC announcement day in September.

Earnings Watch For Next Week

Next Tuesday, three high profile stocks will be reporting their Q3 earnings, and they are BABA, AAPL & TWTR.

Breadth Improving

The NYSE A/D line has reached the July 20, 2015 level while the SPX has risen back to level near August 19, 2015. This shows the A/D has improved much more than the index, and that is a good sign if it continues. The new high/new low is also back above zero, that mean there are more issues making new 52 week high than 52 week low, another sign of improving breadth.

The Big Channel

Here are the weekly charts of the indices showing price still trending within a multi-years price channel and holding above the support trendline.

Market Continues To Move Higher

The market had another explosive day. One can say it was due to the possibility of more easing from the ECB or it’s just the funds saw it as an opportunity to load up after yesterday’s minor pullback. But whatever the reason might be, the market will always do what it wants to do and at the present, it wants to move higher.

Market Recap & Stock Update - 10/21/2015

A recap of today's price action and an update for these stocks: AAPL, FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, TWTR, TSLA, FIT, GPRO.

Market Recap & Stock Update - 10/20/2015

A review of the market and the following stocks: AAPL, FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, TWTR, TSLA, IBB, FIT & GPRO.

What Level GS Might Be Targeting?

In this video, we will attempt to find clues to help us to determine where GS might be headed before this week’s OpEx. We will look at the recent price action of GS from different time frames to search for clues.

Market Recap & Stock Update - 10/19/2015

A recap of today's market price action and an update on the following stocks: AAPL, FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, TWTR, TSLA, IBB, MS, JPM, BAC, C, GS.

The Significance Of September 28, 2015

What is the significance about September 28, 2015? I’m sure it has significance to many people in many different ways, but to the market, it could be the day when it made a corrective bottom for the recent corrective phase.

Still Believe Rate Hike In 2015?

Look at the chart for the 20+ year treasury bond ETF, TLT. Do you still believe the FED will raise rate in 2015? The market doesn’t believe it will. Pay attention to the Q4 projections & guidance from companies reporting their Q3 earnings. Watch and listen for these key words; “cost reduction”, “reduce spending”, and the dreaded “workforce reduction” or “R.I.F” (Reduction-In-Force, a more politically correct acronym for ‘layoff’). The US economy is not ready for a rate hike, and the FED knows it. Its talk about a possible rate hike this year is just rhetoric.

Market Recap & Stock Update - 10/12/15

A recap of the market & these momo stocks: AAPL, FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, TWTR, TSLA, IBB, JPM, SPY.

Weekend Market Recap & Stock Update - 10/11/2015

A review of the market and some stocks, and some potential price levels to watch for the coming week.

Market Recap & Stock Update - 10/8/2015

A recap of today's market action and an update on AAPL, FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, TWTR, TSLA, IBB, MS, JPM, BAC, C.

Market Recap & Stock Update - 10/7/2015

A recap of today's market action and an update on AAPL FB AMZN NFLX GOOGL TWTR TSLA IBB.

Market Recap & Stock Update - 10/6/2015

A recap of today's market & the following momo stocks: AAPL FB AMZN NFLX GOOGL TWTR TSLA IBB TLT UUP.

Weekly Market Recap & Stock Update - 10/4/2015

A review of the market & momo stocks: AAPL FB AMZN NFLX GOOGL TWTR TSLA IBB TLT UUP DX_F.

Market Recap & Stock Update - 10/1/2015

A brief update of the market and these momo stocks: AAPL FB AMZN NFLX GOOGL TWTR TSLA IBB.

Market Recap & Stock Update - 9/30/2015

In this video, we will review the market and the following momo stocks: AAPL, FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, TWTR, TSLA and ETFs; TLT, UUP, IBB.

Market Recap & Stock Update - 9/29/2015

In this video, a quick review of the market & an update on these stocks: AAPL FB AMZN NFLX GOOGL TWTR TSLA IBB.

Market Recap & Stocks Follow Up - 9/28/2015

In this video, we will review the market indices and do a brief follow up on the stocks that were highlighted in last weekend's video. The stocks are: AAPL FB TWTR GOOGL AMZN NFLX TSLA & the biotech ETF, IBB.

Weekly Market Recap & Stock Review - 9/27/15

The market is still undecided on which way it wants to go in the near term. The SP500 could break below the 1913.85 level and go test 2014 October closing low, or it could break above the 1993.48 level and retest the 2040.24. In this video, we will take a look at the indices, IBB and the following momo stocks: AAPL, FB, GOOGL, AMZN, NFLX, TWTR & TSLA.

Stocks To Watch - 9/24/2015

Here are a few stocks to keep watch for potential quick long trade. Also see yesterday "Stocks To Watch - 9/23/2015" for more potential long candidates.

Market Recap For 9/24/2015

Today, the market started out in negative territory and reached its low of the day after the first 2 hours of trading. The SP500 was down almost 30 points before it starts to stabilize. It started to turn upward after the Euro markets closed. From the breadth charts, the A/D (middle chart) started to turn around 11:00AM ET, half an hour before the Euro markets close. The U/DVOL (left side chart) started to turn at 2:00PM ET. The U/DVOL turned positive for a brief moment for the NYSE before the sellers came back at the close.

Stocks To Watch - 9/23/2015

Although the market is in a general down trend, but there are some potential quick trade candidates for possible long position. Here are a few that might be setting up for some upside move.

FB & Market Recap For 9/21/2015

The market finished mixed today. There were more decliners than advancers in the Nasdaq and the U/DVOL was slightly above 1.0. The NYSE didn’t perform much better than the Nasdaq, its U/DVOL ratio is also slightly above 1.0 while the advancers did lead the decliners.

Watch The Dollar!

The FOMC decided not to hike rate in its last meeting and the US dollar should start to come down. Although there are talks of possible rate hike by the end of the year, those talks will likely vanish after the Q3 earnings come out next month and showed how the strong dollar has negatively impacted corporate earnings. If there are any hints of possible spending cut and/or reduction-in-force (RIF or layoff) from reporting companies, that will further dismiss any thought on the possibility of a rate hike in 2015.

A Repeat Of 2011 For The Market?

In the recent weeks, the market has gone through a period of high volatility and violent fall which many participants might have not had experienced or have forgotten the 2011 time period.

Market Recap For 9/17/2015

The long awaited rate hike decision from the FED finally came and gone, and nothing has changed. The decision is to leave the rate at its current level. Reasons cited by the FOMC not to raise rate included the China slow down, the strong US dollar and low inflation due to low energy prices. So the guessing game continues as the talking heads still guessing there could be a rate hike before the end of this year. But based on timing and the reasons cited by the committee, the likely scenario is there won’t be a rate hike in 2015, and the next likely time frame for a rate hike is in March, 2016.

Market Recap For 9/16/2015

The market didn’t wait for the FOMC rate announcement to launch a rally. Whether it was a short covering rally or a dead cat bounce, today's rally has the support from the breadth. In the NYSE, 3.6 billion shares were traded with up volume over down volume by a ratio of 8.27 to 1 and there were 1671 more advancing issues than declining issues. The Nasdaq U/DVOL ratio is 2.7 in favor of the up volume, and there were 682 more advancing issues than declining issues.

Market Recap For 9/15/2015

Just when the doubters started looking at the October 2014 level again, the market turns around and make them look foolish, and worse yet, catching many of them on the wrong side of the trade. That’s why always trade what you see not what you believe. The market doesn’t care what anyone believes.

Market Recap For 9/14/2015

The market started the new week in a narrow range. The SP500 ended the session with a loss of -8.02 points or -0.41% by closing at 1953.03. The near term overhead resistance remains to be the 12/16/14 close at 1972.56. The potential major near term resistance is the 3/11/15 close at 2040.24. The recent low near the 10/15/14 close at 1862.49 continues to be the major potential support.

Scenarios For The SPY - 9/13/2015

Last week, the SP500 ETF, SPY failed to move above the recent pivot high at 199.84. It opened near that level on Wednesday and was rejected immediately and ended the session with a 1.39% loss or -27.37 points. For the remainder of the week, it simply fluctuated within a narrow range between the 194.85 and 196.90 levels.

Trade Discussion - AAPL & FB

In this video, some intraday trade setup and trade management techniques are discussed. The stocks used in this discussion are AAPL & FB.

Market Recap For 9/10/2015

The market continues with its volatile behavior. Today, it opened slightly down and then it went positive after the first hour of trading. It reached its high of the day around 1:30 PM ET, and then the afternoon pullback begins. Today the breadth is neutral, with a U/DVOL ratio of 1.3 for the NYSE and 1.9 for the NASDAQ favoring the UVOL. The A/D is also in the neutral zone with 233 advancers over the decliners in the NYSE and 403 advancers over the decliners in the NASDAQ.

The Obvious And The Not So Obvious

Beware of the obvious. You won't get an edge with the obvious in the market. The market rarely will do the obvious as it will fool most of the people most of the time.

Market Recap For 9/9/2015

After a day of huge gain, the market did a reversal today. The market started to fade and slowly gave back the opening gains shortly after the open. After the lunch hour, the pace and the vigor of the selloff increased. The DJI gave back almost half of its previous day’s gain. It lost -239.11 points or -1.45% at the close. The total traded volume in the NYSE is approximately the same as previous session. The NYSE traded 3.59 billion shares, and the Nasdaq traded 3.51 billion shares. The U/DVOL ratio is 5.30 for the NYSE and 2.7 for the Nasdaq, both favoring the down volume. The declining issues led the advancing issues by 1561 and 1051 for the NYSE and the Nasdaq respectively. In today’s session, there were 64 stocks traded in the NYSE and 54 stocks traded in the Nasdaq made new 52 week low.

Market Recap For 9/8/2015

Just when the majority of market participants are dreading and expecting the market to move lower, and some participants are even certain that the next stop for the market will be the recent low, the market exert itself and reminded everyone who is the boss. Instead of a continuation from last Friday’s selloff, the DJI gained 390.30 points or 2.42% and ended today’s session at 16,492.68, second best day of 2015. The up volume overwhelmed the down volume by a ratio of 7.5 to 1 in the NYSE, and a ratio of 5.9 to 1 in the Nasdaq. The advancers outnumbered the decliners by 1800 and 1498 for the NYSE and Nasdaq respectively. Not to be outdone, the Dow Jones Transportation index put in a higher high and moved above the resistance level posed by 7/8/15 close at 8002.54. Does this mean the recent downward move is over? The answer to this question is, “Only time will tell.” Until the breadth has improved and the market has moved above resistance levels, one should keep watching and keep listening to the market for clues on the direction of the next move.

Stock Watch - Week Of 9/8/2015

Here are some stocks that might be setting up for a possible move up in the coming days: P, TWTR, URBN, GLW, HIMX, DAL, JBLU, TASR, MU, ALKS, OAS.

SP500 Weekly Recap - 9/7/2015

Last week, the market didn't change much. It has continued to liquidate. Friday’s pull back wasn’t a surprise after a shooting star doji from Thursday’s price action. The negative tone of the market continues to resonate after the August job report.

Market Recap For 9/3/2015

Today, the market continued from where it left off yesterday. The SP500 opened up and rallied for the first 90 minutes of trading. Soon after it has reached the resistance level posed by the December 16, 2014 close, the pullback begins. The SP500 spent most of today’s session retracing from this resistance level back to support level at 1948.04, which is last Thursday intraday low. At today's high, the SP500 was up 26.37 points and for a short time, the SP500 gave up all its morning’s gains and went negative. While the market was pulling back, the up volume continues to lead the down volume. At the close, the NYSE U/DVOL ratio was 2.44 to 1, and advancing issues outnumbered the declining issues by 902.

Market Recap For 9/2/2015

Today the market behaved more calmly than in previous session. The trading volume was slightly less than yesterday’s trading volume, and the U/DVOL ratio was significantly smaller in favor of the up volume. The U/DVOL ratio was 4.4 to 1 for the NYSE and the Nasdaq. There were more advancing issues than declining issues in today’s session. In the NYSE, 1489 more advancing issues than declining issues, and in the Nasdaq there were 998 more advancing issues than declining issues.

Market Recap For 9/1/2015

The market greeted the month of September with a big selloff. Today’s selloff was accompanied with huge downside volume. In the NYSE, the U/DVOL ratio was 23 to 1, and in the Nasdaq, the ratio was 8.4 to 1. The declining issues dominated the advancing issues throughout today’s session. There were 2743 decliners and 448 advancers in the NYSE. In the Nasdaq, 2306 issues have declined and 575 issues have advanced. Although majority of the stocks were down today, but most of them held above their 52 week low. There were 102 stocks made new 52 week low today in the NYSE vs 1336 stocks made new 52 week low on August 24, 2015. In the coming days, the market could go down to test the recent low or it could just chop around to form a consolidation base before it decides which direction to move.