Thursday, April 30, 2009

Gold, Gold, Gone

I do not disagree with the premises of higher gold prices in the long term due to the enormous liquidity injection from the Fed. But as a trader, one must trade according to the near term trend. The near term trend for gold is down, and therefore I am bearish on gold in the near term. As the chart below shows gold most likely will not see major support until it reached the 835 level, or even down to the 800 level. When fears return to the equity market, gold could become a safe haven play again and that might give some near term price supports. But in order for the price of gold to move above the 1000 mark and beyond, the inflation picture has to come into play. Inflation will not return until the recession has ended and the recovery phase is well underway. From the latest statistics, the contraction of the US economy has slowed, but the contraction has not stopped. This imply the recession has not ended.

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Monday, April 27, 2009

To Be Continued...

A week has gone by and the major market indices continue to consolidate. It is like watching a TV series with a teaser for the next episode..."To be continued...", the technical levels for the DJI, SP500 and Nasdaq remain unchanged. Until the market has given a sign that the bear market rally has ended, I will remain selectively long with tight stops, it is too early to go short.

Here are the updated charts:

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Monday, April 20, 2009

Waiting For The Bell

The pullback that everyone was waiting for finally came today. The characteristic of this pullback reminded me of a bunch of elementary school kids standing near the class room door waiting for the recess bell to ring. Within minute after the bell ring, the class room is almost empty of school kids. This is what happen today, within the first 1 1/2 hours of trading, most of the day's losses were putted in. If you were lucky and your stocks did not have a big gap down on the opening, then you might still be able to salvage most of your profits. There was no midday rally at all. It was a day of fading to the low. The quick and dramatic pullback should raise caution. Need to watch how the market test for supports in the coming days to determine if this bear market rally is over or this is just a pullback within the bear market rally.

Here is the intraday 15 minutes chart for the DJI, SP500 & Nasdaq 100:

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Saturday, April 18, 2009

Everyone Is Watching

The market finished with another up week. This make it six weeks in a row. The SP500 is hitting the inflection point of 875, a resistance level that everyone is watching. The DJI has broken above 8000 and into the 8100. Nasdaq 100 getting close to its resistance level near 1380-1400. It will be interesting to see how the market will react when these indices get near their key resistance level. Will a pullback finally take place as many people have been waiting for, or will those skeptics finally give in and push the market to a blowout to end this bear market rally. The market is definitely getting a bit risky and I am tighten up my stops on my longs. Still not shorting yet.

Below are the updated charts for the indices. I have also put up the charts on the index ETF, DIA, SPX & QQQQ to show what levels I am watching on these ETFs. Click on the image to get a larger view of the chart.


SP500, SPY

Nasdaq 100, QQQQ

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Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Another Look At Gold & Oil

The market did another pullback today but nothing warrant me to change my previous assessment about the market. Therefore, I thought I use this opportunity to take another look at gold and oil.

The Gold

Gold did a turn around going from targeting the 1000 mark to reversing back down toward the low 800 level. Since it reached near the 970 in mid March, it has reversed and dipped below the 50 SMA. Just a few days ago, it came close to testing the 200 SMA for support. The recent price actions have established a lower high and lower low, thus forming a down trend. From the gold continuous contract daily chart, a downward price channel can be drawn that point to a support near the 800 level. Unless the recent bounce off the 200 SMA re-establish a new higher high that can turn into a new rising trend, I will continue to watch it for lower prices.

A similar downward price channel is also being formed on the ETF GLD daily candlestick chart. This price channel points to support near the 80 level.

For those that are interested in playing the downside on gold using ETF without shorting the GLD, you might want to conside trading the GLL. This is the ultra short ETF on gold. This is a leveraged ETF, like all other leveraged ETFs, they are for short term trading only. Do not hold these ETFs too long. The volume on the GLL is relatively low comparing to the GLD, so watch the spread.

The Oil

The oil continuous contract was forming a rounded bottom until the last week or so. The rounded bottom has transformed into a cup & handle pattern with a measured move that could put the price in the 70s.

For the ETF, USO, an inverted head & shoulder pattern is being formed. The measured move from this H&S pattern could put the price in the 45 range.

The projected price levels from these charts are pending on the completion of their respective price pattern and breaking out from it. I have not identify what might trigger the crude prices to move to these levels. For now, I'm just monitoring it to see if this scenario will play itself out. Until then, I'm not initiating any trade on USO under this scenario, but that doesn't mean I won't be trading USO under other technical guidance. In the near term, I still believe oil will be trading in the 45-55 range.

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Saturday, April 11, 2009

Movers, Shakers, Pretenders

The pre-announcement of WFC's earnings on Thursday gave the market the lift to shift it into high gear. The DJI gained almost 250 points and moved above the 8000 level once again. The SP500 moved up to the resistance level near 850 level. The Nasdaq 100 is moving away from the support level of 1290 and marching upward to the Nov 2008 high in the range of 1380. With option expiration coming up next week and earning reports from some closely watched companies such as GS, INTC, GOOG, JPM, C and GE, the market will reveal to us who are the movers, the shakers, and the pretenders in this bear market rally.

Lets take a look at some of the notables for next week.

First up on earnings report before the open on Tuesday is the survivor of Wall St., GS. It has broken out of the upward price channel and barring any negatives, the earnings report could move it into 130-140 zone.

Then come INTC after the close on Tuesday. Semiconductors have been strong recently, and any indication from INTC that the semiconductor market is stabilizing could be interpreted as a positive to continue the tech rally.

On Thursday, the mother of web search, GOOG will be reporting. This is a wildcard and it could easily swing 50 points in either direction. I tend to stay away from earnings play especially on GOOG that report a day before options expire.

On last Friday while the market was closed in observance of Good Friday, the buzz about MSFT is in talk with YHOO again could stir things up on the tech sector next week. This could add more fuel to the Nasdaq 100 to move it into the 1380-1400 level.

As the earnings report season continue next week with option expiration and the latest buzz on MSFT and YHOO, the market could very likely give us some wild moves to shake the longs and squeeze the shorts as it continue to move higher. My trading strategy still remain in managing my stops on my longs and wait until the market has run its course in the bear market rally before considering going shorts.

Cautionary Note:

One cautionary note I like to make to all the blog readers out there, not only there are stocks that pretend to be the mover, but there are lot of pretenders in the blog land. Be careful not to focus on reading only those blogs that share your view of the market. In order to be successful in trading as well as in life, one must maintain an open mind to accept viewpoints from others and learn from them, not necessary one needs to agree with them but one needs to be open minded and respect other people's viewpoints. For those blogs that you find or discover they will not accept your comments because it differ from the blogger's view, my suggestion to you is don't waste your time reading those blogs. Those bloggers tend to think they know what the market will do. As any experienced traders can tell you, no one know what the market will do, all one can do is put together some scenarios on what the market might do and monitor it, and depend on which scenario becomes reality, then one trade accordingly. Be careful and good trading to all.

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Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Where Are We?

After the market made more than 20% gain in the last four weeks, a pullback is not unusual. But with constant reminder from the talking heads that this rally is a bear market rally, fears get triggered whenever a pullback comes along. But if some key levels are being monitored, then one doesn't have to fear the pullback. Instead, one can be prepare to take advantage of the pullback when it occurs. So where are we?

The market is still in the rally mode until it has violated key support levels. Click on the following charts for a larger image to view those key support levels.

As I have mentioned before, I will tighten up my stops on my longs here and won't be aggressive on setting up new longs until after the key supports have been tested and held. I will wait until supports are broken and confirmed with negative momentum before I go short.

Where is gold now?

Since my last post on gold, it has made a turn to the downside. The chart for gold's continuous contract displays lower high and lower low, and this is a signature of a down trend. It is trying to find support from the 200 SMA. For the ETF, GLD, it is bouncing off the 200 SMA with a long shadow inverted hammer candle. If you are considering on trading gold on the short side via ETF, then you might take a look at the GLL. It is an ultra short on gold. Be careful on these leveraged ETF, they are for trading purposes only and not for long term holding.

What about oil?

Although oil has retreated back below $50 a barrel after it has moved above $55 for a brief moment, the trend still pointing toward the $50 and above level. It could be establishing a trading range between 45-55 for the near term. The ETF, USO is trending within a rising price channel with a near term top range of 33-34. I would go long on the USO whenever it bounces off the price channel's lower trendline for a swing trade.

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Saturday, April 4, 2009

Is The Rally Over?

The market has been moving higher for the last four weeks and gained more than 20% since the March 9, 2009 closing low, so is this rally over? From the market's behaviors, it does not appear this rally is over. Instead, it appears the market is playing out this rally according to its script. It is converting more non-believers to buy into this rally. More talking heads are calling this rally more than a bear market rally, even some of them are calling this a new bull market rally. Furthermore, there are lot of talks that the market has bottomed on March 9, 2009. Sound like a bull trap? I'm not going to fight the tape. I will be long until the trap is set and be very watchful for signs to close all my longs before this bull trap is snapped.

Lets take a looking at the charts and those levels to watch for signs that the trap is about to be snapped.

From the DJI chart above, all the support and resistance levels drawn in blue are fairly close to the Fib retracement levels. The DJI first attempt on breaking the 8000 level resulted in a pullback to test the 7500 for support and to lessen the slope of the price channel. The success in the second attempt on breaking above the 8000 level included a test of support at the 8000 level (resistance turn into support). The trendline crossing into the price channel at 8250 should not be much of a resistance since ahead of this level are the stronger resistance at 8400 and the Fib 61.8% level. One of these two resistance levels could potentially be the reversal point.

The SP500 chart also show the resistance levels (drawn in red) are closely aligned with the Fib retracement levels. The trendline crossing the price channel should not pose too much of a resistance. The major resistance appears to be near the 880 level, where the resistance trendline and the Fib 61.8% are. This level should be closely monitor for possible reversal.

The Nasdaq 100 shows a slightly different characteristic than the DJI and SP500. It has broken through the trading range and probably will not encounter resistance until it reached the upper trendline of the price channel or the resistance level at 1380. The 1380 level need to be monitored for possible reversal point since the upper price channel trendline also crosses this point.

In the near term, the market appears to still have more upside. But the resistance levels mentioned here should be closely monitored for possible reversal. When these resistance levels are approached, I will tighten up my stops on the longs to avoid getting trapped with those late comers.

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Friday, April 3, 2009

It Was A Fire Drill

In my last post, I used an analogy of someone yelling "Fire" in a packed theater to question the pullback from last Friday and Monday to be the beginning of a new down trend or just a consolidation to the recently rally, as to the "Fire" alert to an actual fire or simply a fire drill. Looking at the recent price actions and how some of the indices and stocks breaking above key levels, the recent pullback is more like a fire drill than an actual fire.

Does it mean all coast are clear for the bulls to run? Absolutely not. We are still in a bear market. Right now, the market is sending out couple messages. The first one is it is going higher, and the second one is it is getting ready to reverse. What I am seeing from my inspection of the stock charts is majority of them are either hitting trendline resistance or getting near 200 SMA resistance. These resistance can be the infection point for reversal. Until these resistance are broken and tested, I will be very cautious on being too bullish on this phase of the bear market rally.

Instead of putting up the usual charts, I decide to post a picture of one of my trading screen to highlight some of the stocks that are hitting/nearing resistance. In this screen, there are 30 minutes, 15 minutes, and daily candlestick charts.

In my next post, I will revisit those levels I have mentioned in previous post to get an assessment on what the market will do next. Until then, trade attentively as reversal can come with very little notice.

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