Saturday, August 31, 2013

The Casino

Sometime the market feels like a casino, but if one apply risk management properly, one can minimize the amount of gambling on a trade and focus more on speculating.

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Thursday, August 29, 2013

A Pre-holiday Look

A brief review of the following stocks before the Labor Day holiday: GLD, FB, TSLA, KKD, GMCR, AAPL, NFLX, GOOG.

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Monday, August 26, 2013

A Sudden Turnaround

The market was showing some strength in the early morning trading with many stocks surging higher. Then near mid-day and early afternoon, the market started to show some sign of stalling and many stocks beginning to give back majority of their morning gains.

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Sunday, August 25, 2013

Stocks To Watch - 8/25/2013

Here are some of the stocks & ETF that could move higher in the coming week: CHK SLV GLD MGM TSLA KKD FB GMCR CELG NFLX AAPL GOOG GS BAC.

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Bouncing Higher

After an eventful week with the Nasdaq halted for trading for 3 hours due to system problem, the market continues to bounce back toward higher level. There are signs that this could be the last attempt on running up to make a new high for the market. While the trend still remains to be up, one must continue exercise caution and follow the stocks with strength.

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Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Continue To Watch & Continue To Hold

With the DJIA closing down more than 100 points, NFLX, FB & TSLA appear to be holding up well. Continue to watch and continue to hold until your catalyst is invalidated by price. The current unsettle state of the market is difficult enough to maintain the course, so don't let your opinion or personal bias influence your trading decisions. More importantly, don't let others' opinions alter your trading positions. Trade what you see and trade with your convictions.

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Stocks To Watch - 8/21/2013

The market still in the process of deciding which direction it wants to move. The SP500 is hanging around the 50 SMA that can easily break toward the downside or reverse back toward the upside. While the market is deciding, there are stocks showing strength and stocks at the crossroad where it can break down or reverse back up just like the market might do.

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Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Looking The Other Way

Today, one simply need to look the other way and pretty much ignore in most part what the market indices are doing. The larger time frame trend for the market still pointing up, while the shorter time frame appear to be indecisive (correction or reversal?). Under the current market environment, it is very difficult to play the trend. You do not want to go aggressive long, and definitely do not want to short the market until it has clearly display the trend is down. Therefore, one must resort to be a stock picker and play the stocks that are showing strength.

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Sunday, August 18, 2013

Gold & Glitter

Since gold put in a closing low of 1212.30 on 6/27/13 and tested with a slightly higher closing low of 1213.40 on 7/5/13 in the futures market, it has been trending up toward 1350.

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Saturday, August 17, 2013

Remain Cautious

The market got spooked from CSCO earnings report. The news of a 5% layoff from CSCO was a big surprise to the market. With the PC market slowing and IBM projecting a tough quarter ahead, it was a making for the tech sector to get hit. Since IBM, CSCO and INTC are part of the DJIA, a 200+ point on the downside for the DJIA was not surprising.

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Friday, August 16, 2013

Needs To Be Patience With FB Once Again

After FB moved back above the IPO price of 38, it has stalled and attempted to consolidate around the IPO price level. During the last couple trading sessions, it has broken below the IPO level and headed back down to 36. Looking at the weekly price chart, FB is in the process of completing an evening star candlestick pattern. This pattern typically is bearish when it is formed near the top of an uptrend. One can also see the similar price pattern formed by AAPL in September of 2012 prior to an extended retracement. After FB complete this pattern and price breaks below 36, then there could be some long opportunities when it has found support near the 34 level. Until then, one should exercise patience and wait for the next long trigger from FB.

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Thursday, August 15, 2013

Market Pulled Back

After CSCO announced its earnings and the pending layoff of 4000 people, the market sold off. From yesterday's review, the market breadth is indicating a pull back is imminent.

Here is a look at the market and what to expect next.

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Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Headwind Could Be Striking

After the market closed today, CSCO reported its latest quarterly earnings and gave some surprising unsettled news about its business outlook for the coming quarter. In addition, the biggest surprise is the 5% workforce reduction (layoff) of 4000 workers worldwide. This is one thing no one is expecting, and for CSCO to take such drastic and sudden action, one must question how bad the global economy really is?

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Tuesday, August 13, 2013

The New Old AAPL & More

Here is a follow up review for some of the stocks that were reviewed earlier. One of them is AAPL. AAPL was on the verge of breaking out of the double bottom pattern. Today, AAPL made a move above the pivot near 472. Then later on the trading session, Icahn tweeted to let everyone know he has a sizable position on AAPL and he felt AAPL is very undervalued. This tweet has increased AAPL market cap by 25B (yes, with a 'B'). AAPL is currently trading like it use to trade...volatile with lot of buzz. This is the new 'old' AAPL.

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Monday, August 12, 2013

Analyze AAPL & NFLX Using Multiple Time Frame

Here is an analysis of AAPL and NFLX using daily, weekly and the 30 minutes intraday price chart to identify potential support & resistance levels, and possible price targets.

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Sunday, August 11, 2013

Home Builders Need To Rebuild

After an impressive run, the home builders have retreated and they have retraced to possible key support levels. If these support levels failed to hold, then look for further retracement from these stocks.

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Something For Everyone

The market pulled back slightly last week. It might feel worst than it seems, since there are many days with triple digits intraday loss ended with a modest loss. This type of price action might give us some false sense of security. But, the trend is still pointing up, so until the market tell us otherwise, continue to trade the current trend.


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Saturday, August 10, 2013

Silvery Bounce

After the precious metals made their low in June, they been grinding back up to the mid-June price gap. The silver ETF, SLV is also trying to break above the 19.80 level and possibly move up toward filling the June price gap.

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The Day After For PCLN

The Fib 161% extension level near 994 proved to be the resistance for PCLN on the day after it has reported its earnings. The intraday high for 8/9/2013 was 994.98.

As shown on the daily price chart, the price essentially reached the upper band of the rising price channel, and it appears the resistance has prevented PCLN from reaching the 1000 level on this attempt.

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Thursday, August 8, 2013

After The Earnings For MOMO Stocks

Let’s take a look at some of the MOMO stocks that have recently reported earnings: GOOG, AMZN, NFLX, TSLA, and LNKD.

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PCLN The $1000 Stock?

PCLN reported its latest quarterly earnings after the close today and the price of its stock moved toward the $1000 mark in after hour trading. The option market priced a possible +-$54 price movement on earnings, a 5.8% based on the normal trading session close of 933.75.

As one can see from the chart in the video, PCLN closed at 984.04 in the after hour session.

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Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Post Earnings Review For TSLA & GMCR

Certainly there was no shortage of anxieties and anticipations from those that were waiting for the earnings report to come out for TSLA and GMCR after the market close today. Those that are holding long position on TSLA certainly got rewarded, but those that are holding long on GMCR did not.

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Tuesday, August 6, 2013

Don’t Be Blinded By The Bias

As recent history has shown, the two most hated stocks are rewarding those that are willing to put their feelings (bias) aside and trade according to price action. The two stocks I’m referring to are FB and AAPL.

BBRY could be another one of those hated stock making a similar move. Don’t be blinded or influenced by all the chatters, whether they are positive or negative. Put away whatever bias you might have and trade what you see. How high can BBRY bounce off its recent low and how long will this move last? Who knows? As a trader, just trade it until it stops moving. As always, trade your plan.

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Here Come The Fireworks

Two heavily shorted stocks are scheduled to report their earnings after the market close tomorrow, they are GMCR and TSLA. The option marketing is pricing these two stocks to have price movement of approximately plus/minus 13% or plus/minus $11.00 and $18.00 respectively.

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Sunday, August 4, 2013

All Bets Are Off For MGM

MGM has been trending upward from the lower bound ($9.00) of its multi-year trading band to the upper bound ($17.00) since the end of 2012. It has broken through the $16 resistance level and currently testing the $17.00 trading band resistance. The short term moving average, 20EMA, along with the 50 & 200 days SMA have been rising with prices trending above them. Here is an earlier post on MGM setup.

But, before the market open for trading on 8/6/13 (Tuesday), MGM will report its quarterly earnings. Depending on the quarterly results and/or the forward guidance, the price of its stock can react positively or negatively. One could avoid the adverse price reaction to earnings surprises by taking off all bets on MGM until after earnings have been reported. As always, trade your plan.

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Rational Fear & Greed

Whenever fear & greed are at an elevated level, there are no rationales to stock value. This is exactly what is happening to TSLA, similarly to NFLX, AMZN and many Web 1.0 stocks back in the dot com bubble. No one say you have to like it or accept it, you could just watch and learn how the game plays out over and over again. So whether you are in the TSLA trade or simply being a spectator...ENJOY the game (even if you know how this game will end). If you are in the trade, I wish you will make a lot of money and be able to keep them. Good luck traders!

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Path To The 40s - FB

Ever since FB reported its latest quarterly earnings, the composure of its stock price action has changed. It has surprised lot of traders that do not believe FB could move back into its IPO price of $38 this quickly. Now many of these traders are waiting for a pullback to buy in. The most likely scenario is those that have missed the initial move will end up chasing the high as FB run toward the IPO high near $45.

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Too Many To Choose

The market continues to make new all time high and stocks are on the verge of making new 52 weeks high. There are so many stocks in every sector displaying price action that can propel them into new 52 week or new all time high. There are simply too many stocks to choose to go long, it is getting scarey.

The following video will review the market along with highlighting some of the stocks that have the possibility of breaking out to new high.


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