Tuesday, October 29, 2013

It Finally Made It

The Dow Jones Industrial finally made the new all time high that the Dow Jones Transportation has been screaming to tell the Dow Theory followers. One might believe today’s new high could be the market top, but to the contrary. The SP500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and the DJT all made new high along with the DJIA. What this mean is today’s DJIA new high is a confirmed high. Only after the market index has made a non-confirmed high is when we should look for the possibility that the market has made a top. Until then, we will continue to monitor for a higher high.

In the video, the DJIA and its ETF, DIA along with the price action for AAPL after its earnings report are reviewed and analyzed.

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Sunday, October 27, 2013

Four Stocks To Watch

Here are the four stocks to keep an eye on for the coming week. These four stocks are scheduled to report their earnings. The most widely watched is AAPL. It is schedule to report earnings after the close on Monday, and the options market is pricing in approximately pulse/minus $35 move on earnings.

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Saturday, October 26, 2013

Market Review - 10/26/2013

Most of the major market indices were hitting new high during the week except the DJIA. The DJT continues to show strength and it only experienced its second down day on Friday from the last twelve trading sessions. Talks about how extended this market continue, and the market continues to defy those disbelievers as it makes higher high.

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The Crash Of 1929 - PBS

Don't be fool by "It's different this time". Watch this PBS documentary of the 1929 stock market crash and see the similarities between today and 1929.

The Crash of 1929 . American Experience . WGBH | PBS

Enjoy & learn.

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Thursday, October 24, 2013

It's Not Complicated

If you have been following this blog and read about the Dow Theory in this blog and/or from elsewhere, you have probably got the message from the market already. Yes, sometime the market sends out messages that are loud and clear and not complicated. But the value of the message is only as worthy as the recipient's ability to interpret it.  Here is what the market has been saying (see the charts).

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Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Changing The Tune

NFLX stock price surged more than 10% after it has reported earnings on Monday. The after hour price action appears to be following what GOOG stock price has done after it reported its earnings. Then something happened in the Tuesday session, NFLX changed the tune. It has decided not to play the song GOOG played and its stock price came straight down after gapped up on the open at a new all time high near the 390 level.

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Monday, October 21, 2013

The Band Plays On

NFLX reported its earnings today after the close and knocked it out of the park. AMZN is schedule to report its earnings this Thursday after the close. AAPL is scheduled to announce the next generation IPad tomorrow. It appears the high beta, large cap tech stocks are zooming higher on any positive news. Of course, it can move the other direction as well with any negative news. Live by the sword, die by the sword. The band plays on!

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Sunday, October 20, 2013

Natural Resources Watch List - 10/20/2013

Here are some interesting natural resources, oil & gas charts with potential long breakout level to watch.

Be sure to check out "More To Come" to see where the market might be headed, and "Trading All Time High" on one possible way to buy high sell higher, and get an idea on what the options market is pricing in for the "Event Driven Trades" on NFLX & AAPL.

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Saturday, October 19, 2013

Event Driven Trades

Next week, two high beta and widely watched stocks will be holding price moving event. One of them is NFLX, it will report its quarterly earnings after the market close on Monday. The second one is AAPL, it will be holding a product announcement event with the possibility of announcing the next version of Ipad on Tuesday. These events will most likely move the stock price of the respective stock.

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Trading All Time High

Not only did the market indices such as SP500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and the Dow Jones Transportations made new all time high recently, but many stocks also made new all time high. Trading stocks that have just made new all time high could pose a few dilemmas for the traders. Couple possible dilemmas a trader might face when trading a stock that just made a new all time high are: 1) where is the next price resistance or price target for establishing potential risk & reward, 2) the risk of buying into a profit taking pullback or a correction.

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Friday, October 18, 2013

More To Come

The market continues to make new high as the DC clown show came to an end and a new round of earnings report begins. The SP500, Russell 2000, and the Dow Jones Transportations index made new all time high, while the Nasdaq 100 made multi-years new high. The DJIA is the only index that fails to come near to its last new high. This does not mean the market has top out nor the new high from the other market indices is non-confirm. To the contrary, the market breadth shows remarkable strength, with the advance/decline and the new-high/new-low surpassed previous high indicate broad market participation.

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Sunday, October 13, 2013

Trading YHOO Earnings Projected Move

YHOO will be reporting its earnings after the close on Tuesday, 10/15/13. For those that are holding YHOO or planning to trade YHOO through earnings report, here is the current option market pricing for the expected move from the earnings report; it is expect YHOO to move +-6%, and that is equivalent to approximately $2.10 from Friday's closing price. From the intraday chart below, the upside price move level is near the upper price channel and the downside price move is near the last pivot low off the lower price channel.

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Market Review - 10/13/2013

The market continues to be jerk around by headlines coming out of DC on the budget deal clown show. While the DJIA appears to be a bit uncertain, the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 are getting near to test the recent high.

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Two Different Directions

AAPL and FB are two of the most watched stocks, and they both have been recovering from their recent low.

Since the last earnings report, FB not only has regained the losses since its IPO but has nearly doubled since its last earning report. In the last two weeks, FB started to consolidate its recent gains. Last week, it ended with two consecutive weeks of losses for the first time since May of this year. The price action from last week resulted in a bearish hangman like candle on the weekly chart.

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Thursday, October 10, 2013

Another Dip Buying Opportunity?

In the "Pulling Back And To The Sideline" post, the DJIA price chart gave some indications that a bounce could be coming and also provided some possible resistance levels.

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Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Pulling Back And To The Sideline

The market has finally culminated to more than a minor pull back. Since the beginning of July, the DJIA 50 SMA (green line) begins to turn from a rising trend toward a falling trend, and the index has been retreating since it made its new all time high on 9/18/2013.

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FB Retracement

FB is trying to hold above the near term support trend line. If it fails to hold above this trend line, then it could possibly dip down to the 78.6% Fib retracement level near the mid 45 area to test for support.

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Monday, October 7, 2013

Possible Gap Fill

Here are three stocks that could be headed down to fill their recent price gap if they fail to hold some key levels.

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Sunday, October 6, 2013

Raising The Flag

One of the most common price pattern appears on a stock chart is a flag or a pennant pattern. It could be a bull flag or a bear flag, depending of the direction of the price trend. In this discussion, we will focus on the recent bull flag from SNDK.

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Saturday, October 5, 2013

MOMO Stocks In Review - 10/5/2013

The market continues to chop around while the clown show in DC plays on. Shorts are being punished as they continue to try to go against the trend by shorting those strong trending stocks such as TSLA, NFLX and FB. Until the trend has changed for these stocks, it is best to simply move aside and watch. And for those that are waiting to buy the dip, their patience are being tested and when these waiting to buy the dip start to buy at any cost, that is when the shorts should get ready. Until then, traders should simply maintain their positions and protect their gains.

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Friday, October 4, 2013

AAPL Next Move

Since the September 9, 2013 unsuccessful attempt to take out the August 19, 2013 closing high of 507.74, AAPL has retreated to the 50% Fib retracement level near 450. After a brief dip below this level, AAPL reversed its slide and has been trying to re-establish a recovery uptrend by forming a higher-high to pair up with the recent higher-low.

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Wednesday, October 2, 2013

The Defiants

Although the clown show in DC is still being played, and the market is being jerk around to shake out some of the weak market participants, there are stocks that move independent of the market. Here are a few of those defiant stocks: DANG, CREE, MSFT, SNDK and TSLA. In this video, the price actions of these stocks are highlighted.

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