S&P 500, AAPL, TSLA & Financial Stocks Could Explode

In this S&P 500 technical analysis, we will analyze the S&P 500 and the other market indexes, then we will analyze these financial stocks: BAC, C, WFC, JPM, MS & GS. Finally, we will analyze AAPL and TSLA stock.

Hike Or No Hike

If you have listened to all the talking heads speaking about the possibility of a rate hike from the upcoming FOMC meeting, you might have walked away thinking the rate hike from the FED is a foregone conclusion. After next Wednesday, it will be a foregone conclusion on whether the FED did or did not hike the interest rate. But in the meantime, here are some charts for you to muddle a bit and see if indeed it is a foregone conclusion that the rate hike is imminent.

The Next Catalyst

The market finished last week with the SP500 near another all time closing high. The DJIA, NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 all recovered some of their recent losses.

Early Look

Here are some stocks from a recent long scan that might present potential swing long opportunities. For those aggressive traders, you can tap into the possibility of scaling in off support. And for those traders that are more accustomed to the classical breakout pattern, watch the pattern for entry trigger.

A Follow Up

The video I have posted on the Memorial Day weekend sort of gave us some ideas on what to look for from the recent market move, and here is a follow up on that video.

Changing Move

The market is making another surge to new high territory. While the SP500 and the Dow Jones Transportation made a new all time high last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial is still some distance away from its previous all time high. Currently, the large cap market such as the SP500 is getting near the neutral area and the small cap still leaning on the bearish zone.

Will Financial Take The Lead?

Here is a look at some of the financial stocks to see if they will lead the market higher in the coming days/weeks.

After Moody's Downgrades...What Now?

Here is a video that takes a look at some of the financial stocks after Moody's downgrades.

PartI:



Part II:

Big Move From UNG & GT

It appears natural gas has made a low term low and its ETF, UNG has made some big moves recently. GT (Goodyear Tires) is breaking out a resistance level with huge single day move. It was up more than 7% during intraday in the last trading session. Looking for possible more upside move from UNG & GT. Watch the video for more details, including latest move from AAPL.



Here is a video recapping on what the market did and where it could be headed along with updates on BAC, MS, GS, WFC, JPM and C.



Disclosure: Long AAPL, GT & MS

Reviewing The Financials - 4/7/2012

The financials could be pulling in the coming week. Check out the video for details.

What A Difference A Day Make

After putting gold back on a trade watch for the next upward move, the market sold it off with a drop of more than $28. Since the gold ETF dipped below the 108 support level, I will wait for the next sign from gold to tell me it is ready to resume its upward move. For now, the long entry that I was watching is off the table. The catalysts I have mentioned could still be played out in the near future. I will continue to watch for signs on which catalyst will emerge or for signs of any new catalyst for gold to move higher.

GLD




As the recent price actions from the US dollar telling us its imminent resurgence, the momentum took a leap forward and broke some major resistance today. Most of today’s drop in the price of gold was due to the strength in the dollar.

DXY



UUP



The Euro took a hit from the dollar, the Euro-dollar ETF, FXE, went below the 144 support level. If the dollar continue to regain its strength (which seem to be most likely at this point), then the unwinding of those dollar carry trades will start to accelerate.

FXE





I have mentioned the weakness in the financial sector previously, and I am continuing to be cautious on the financials. Take a look at the time frame when WFC and BAC did their secondary offering. Don’t get fooled by the false move. Their stock prices were being held up to move those papers. If one look closely at the financials, one can detect the underneath weakness in the sector. I’m staying away on buying the financials.

WFC

The Fallen Leader

Until recently, financial sector has been one of the leading sectors that help drove the market to the October high. Now, the financial is no longer one of the main catalysts that are pushing the market to its recent high. Take a look at the financial ETF, XLF, and the top four holdings in the XLF; JPM, BAC, WFC and GS, and you can see the head & shoulder price pattern are being form on JPM and WFC, and lower high/lower low trend is being form on BAC and GS. These bearish price patterns can eventually lead the market down. As one sector fall, others will follow. Be very cautious on the financial.

Here are the charts:


XLF:



JPM:



BAC:



WFC:



GS:

Movers, Shakers, Pretenders

The pre-announcement of WFC's earnings on Thursday gave the market the lift to shift it into high gear. The DJI gained almost 250 points and moved above the 8000 level once again. The SP500 moved up to the resistance level near 850 level. The Nasdaq 100 is moving away from the support level of 1290 and marching upward to the Nov 2008 high in the range of 1380. With option expiration coming up next week and earning reports from some closely watched companies such as GS, INTC, GOOG, JPM, C and GE, the market will reveal to us who are the movers, the shakers, and the pretenders in this bear market rally.







Lets take a look at some of the notables for next week.



First up on earnings report before the open on Tuesday is the survivor of Wall St., GS. It has broken out of the upward price channel and barring any negatives, the earnings report could move it into 130-140 zone.



Then come INTC after the close on Tuesday. Semiconductors have been strong recently, and any indication from INTC that the semiconductor market is stabilizing could be interpreted as a positive to continue the tech rally.



On Thursday, the mother of web search, GOOG will be reporting. This is a wildcard and it could easily swing 50 points in either direction. I tend to stay away from earnings play especially on GOOG that report a day before options expire.



On last Friday while the market was closed in observance of Good Friday, the buzz about MSFT is in talk with YHOO again could stir things up on the tech sector next week. This could add more fuel to the Nasdaq 100 to move it into the 1380-1400 level.

As the earnings report season continue next week with option expiration and the latest buzz on MSFT and YHOO, the market could very likely give us some wild moves to shake the longs and squeeze the shorts as it continue to move higher. My trading strategy still remain in managing my stops on my longs and wait until the market has run its course in the bear market rally before considering going shorts.


Cautionary Note:

One cautionary note I like to make to all the blog readers out there, not only there are stocks that pretend to be the mover, but there are lot of pretenders in the blog land. Be careful not to focus on reading only those blogs that share your view of the market. In order to be successful in trading as well as in life, one must maintain an open mind to accept viewpoints from others and learn from them, not necessary one needs to agree with them but one needs to be open minded and respect other people's viewpoints. For those blogs that you find or discover they will not accept your comments because it differ from the blogger's view, my suggestion to you is don't waste your time reading those blogs. Those bloggers tend to think they know what the market will do. As any experienced traders can tell you, no one know what the market will do, all one can do is put together some scenarios on what the market might do and monitor it, and depend on which scenario becomes reality, then one trade accordingly. Be careful and good trading to all.