Weekly Stock Market Review And Outlook - June 29, 2019

In this weekly stock market video, we will review the price action and project some possible outlook for the stock market in the coming week.

Stock Market Analysis (Back To All Time High) - June 23, 2019

Watch this video for the latest stock market analysis on what it might do in the near term.

The FED gave a dovish tone on interest rate, and the market soared to new all time high. Gold broke out of a five years high and oil continues to move up as Middle East tension escalates.

Prepare For Range Expansion Move (Stock Market Analysis)

FOMC meeting next week, expecting a range expansion move after last week's NR7 print.

Stock Market Analysis - 6/9/2019

In this stock market analysis, we will analyze the price action of the broad market indices, crude oil, gold, semiconductor & financial ETF, SMH & XLF respectively.

Where Is The Stock Market Headed? - (Weekly Update 6/1/2019)

The stock market continues to fall after Trump imposed tariff on Mexico. In this stock market weekly update, we will analyze the market indices, crude oil, gold, semiconductor and the financial sector to see where is this market headed.

Stock Technical Analysis FAANG, Semiconductor & Tesla

The tech stocks sentiment is currently biased on the downside, especially the semiconductor stocks, the FAANG stocks (FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL). Tesla slide has been relentless, and could due for a short term short squeeze.

Stock Market Weekly Update - 5/25/2019

The stock market has been down 3 consecutive weeks. In this stock market weekly update, we will analyze the recent price action of the broad market indices, the index futures, crude oil, gold, semiconductor and the financial sector to identify potential price levels to watch for next week.

Stock Market Update - 5/21/2019

We will analysis the SPY, QQQ, SMH, TSLA, FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL (FAANG STOCKS), MU, AMD, NVDA, and INTC in this video.

Uncertainties + Trade War = Volatilities

In this stock market weekly update, we will review the broad market indices and some key market segments as the stock market attempts to weather the trade war between US and China.

Something To Take Notice!

Market displayed a divergence with the A/D line on the last SPX pull back to 2020ish level. The bounce off from this latest pull back failed to exceed pre-pullback pivot high. As the current pullback is taking its course, the A/D line will be the key breadth indicator to watch. Near term potential support level for the SPX is near 2056 level on a closing basis, and the potential resistance is near the 2110 level.

Watch The Dollar!

The FOMC decided not to hike rate in its last meeting and the US dollar should start to come down. Although there are talks of possible rate hike by the end of the year, those talks will likely vanish after the Q3 earnings come out next month and showed how the strong dollar has negatively impacted corporate earnings. If there are any hints of possible spending cut and/or reduction-in-force (RIF or layoff) from reporting companies, that will further dismiss any thought on the possibility of a rate hike in 2015.

Stocks To Watch - 5/3/2015

Here is a list of stocks that might present some interesting price movement in the coming week. AMBA, CHK, DGLY, FEYE, GILD, HPQ, SMH, INTC, MU, NVDA, REGN, SCTY, SWKS, SWIR.

Post Market Stock Charts For 3/19/2015

Here are some notable stock charts to watch.

A Follow Up

The video I have posted on the Memorial Day weekend sort of gave us some ideas on what to look for from the recent market move, and here is a follow up on that video.

Changing Move

The market is making another surge to new high territory. While the SP500 and the Dow Jones Transportation made a new all time high last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial is still some distance away from its previous all time high. Currently, the large cap market such as the SP500 is getting near the neutral area and the small cap still leaning on the bearish zone.

Downtrend Continue

The US dollar continues to strengthen due to 'flight to safety' caused by the uncertainties from the Euro crisis and the direction of the US economy.

All the major sectors appear to have turned downward. Until the current uncertainties are removed from the market, the market will continue to be very news driven. Unless one is shorting this market, it is best to move to the sideline and wait for the dust to settle before start looking for long positions. Presently, it is best to be 'out of the market wishing you are in' than 'in the market wishing you are out'. Capital preservation is job one right now. Do not be tempted by a dead cat bounce that will likely to happen in the near term as the market is getting to the oversold condition. Wait for confirmation from the market that the end of the downtrend has occurred before moving back into the market.



Disclosure: Long SH, PSQ, and AAPL PUT

Things To Watch

Until the end of QE2, the market will continue to move higher. Although the recent price actions showing the market is stalling (potential pull back), but the trend remain to be up. The things to watch as the market make its next move to higher level are the continuation of rising commodities prices due to weakening US dollar. And for the market to mount a rally with conviction, the financial and the tech sector will need to participate.

The ETFs to watch are MOO (commodities), GLD (gold), TBF (short US Treasury), UUP (US dollar), XLF (financial), and SMH (semiconductor). The weekly price chart for XLF show it is forming a cup and handle price pattern, while the weekly price chart for the semiconductor sector ETF, SMH show it is working on its weekly bull flag move.


GLD (gold):




MOO (commodities):




UUP (US dollar):




TBF (20+ yrs US Treas. Short):




XLF (financial):




SMH (semiconductor):

At A Crossroad

After a week of sorting out the effects on Japan from its recent 9.0 earthquake, and the unsettled rebellious event in Libya, the market bounced back from its previous week low. The SP500 moved back above the 1295 level and reclaimed the 50 SMA.

SP500:




Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 also bounced back from its previous week low and moved back above its prior support level of 2275. Last Friday, the Nasdaq 100 closed slightly below the 50 SMA after it hit a trend line resistance.

Nasdaq 100:




At the same time, the Russell 2000 bounced off its previous week low and broke out of a small price channel. It even moved beyond the 3/3/11 high of 830.04 before it retreated back to close on Friday at 823.85.

Russell 2000:



These price actions put the market at a crossroad. The major market indices are bumping against resistance and riding on their support. Depending on the catalyst in play for next week, this market could break above its resistance and resume its upward trend toward higher high, or it can roll over and go back down to retest its recent low. Many sectors are also showing recovery strength. This seems to indicate it will be a broad base rally if it materializes. Next Friday will be another monthly job report. Depending on the tone of the market, this report could provide the tipping point for the future direction of the market.


Gold is still flirting with the 1400 level, and its ETF, GLD is bouncing between 139/140.



AAPL found support near the 326 and showing sign that it could be heading back up to make a new all time high.



Even the semiconductor ETF, SMH is regaining strength.




I will remind myself to be flexible while the market is at a crossroad and trade what I see not what I believe. The market will do what it will do…not what I or anyone else wants it to do. Until the market start to rollover toward the recent low, I will try to catch some swing long trades.

Continue To Be Uncertain

The market continues to be uncertain. While the equities market is trying to find support, GLD, the gold ETF is holding its strength to move above the 139/140 level. Looking at the weekly price chart for GLD, it is still trending above its 40 weeks SMA and its long term trend line. Whether it is the geopolitical issue in the Middle East or the natural disaster in Japan, gold is showing strength it is heading back toward 139/140 resistance level. I will be watching GLD to break the 140 resistance soon.

GLD weekly:



GLD daily:




On the flip side, the semiconductor ETF, SMH is facing more downside pressure due to the earthquake in Japan that could potentially cause a shortage of raw silicon wafers for the world chipmakers. Even before the earthquake in Japan, the SMH has already formed a double top and started its retracement. Last week, it has retraced the double top measured move. As the situation in Japan stabilize next week, the SMH could experience an oversold bounce back to the 34 level near the 20 EMA, then it will most likely reverse back to its downtrend.

SMH:



The natural disaster in Japan will undoubtedly have an effect on the supply chain for many technology companies. This will cause some tech companies to reduce their quarterly projection and will put additional pressure on the Nasdaq 100 in the short term. One of the company that could adversely affect by the Japan earthquake is AAPL. If it cannot source just one component for the iphone or for the ipad due to its Japan supplier manufacturing interruption, then its production of the iphone and/or the ipad will come to a halt when the component inventory runs out.

AAPL:

Murky Picture

The lagging market indices from last week have caught up with the DJIA and they all move to new recovery high today. The only remaining lagging market index is the Dow Jones Transportation (DJT). The DJT continue to trail all the market indices.

On the surface, the market still appears it wants to go higher. Underneath it, there are signs that this uptrend could be ending. One sign is the recent market leaders are showing some exhaustion price action. The semiconductor sector ETF, SMH made an intraday reversal today. The energy sector ETF, XLE wicked up and ended with an inverted hammer (shooting star) candle. The SP500 ETF, SPY also is beginning to show sign of fatigue. The QQQQ and the XLK ended the day with long wicked inverted hammer. If the market was not in an extended state, these inverted hammers or shooting stars will not be a concern. But this market has been rising without a pause or a correction, these price actions could be a sign that most of the longs are in the market and a reversal could occur shortly.

Here are the charts. The trend still look good, but the price action is a bit disturbing. The market is presenting a murky picture. Until the picture is cleared up, I am taking a step toward the sideline. I would rather err on the side of missing a big up move than being trapped in a sharp reversal.

SP500:



DJIA:



DJT:



Nasdaq 100:



QQQQ:



SPY:



XLK (Tech ETF):



SMH (Semiconductor ETF):



XLE (Energy ETF):