Sunday, October 30, 2011

Continue To Move Higher

The market continues to move higher after a brief consolidation near the resistance level. The Dow Jones Industrials consolidated around the 11600 then surged to the 11897 level. Tested this level for resistance couple time and then it breaks out and moving toward the next potential resistance near 12385.

The SP500 also consolidated near the 1220 level after it has rallied from the failed breakdown of the 1101 August low, and then it breaks toward the level in play, which is the 1260. When it broke above the 1260 level, it didn’t waste any time to move up to the 1296. With the current price action momentum, it is very likely the SP500 will bounce up to the 1345 level once it has moved above the 1296 resistance.

The Nasdaq 100 moved above the 2368 resistance level and heading toward 2438 even with some weak price action from AAPL.

The Russell 2000 moved above 738 and immediately surged to the 773 level. Now the sight is set on 816 as a potential target.

The gold ETF, GLD broke the baseline of a double bottom (or a ‘W’) pattern and looks like it is trying to fill the mid-October gap. The next potential resistance is near the 173 level.

The silver ETF, SLV also showing it is trying to fill a gap made in mid-October. It came 7 cents shy of filling the gap. If it proceed to break above the 50/100/200 SMA, look for possible move up to 38 and filling another gap made in mid-October.

AAPL did what it might do prior to earnings report, it moved to a new high and priced the stock for perfection. Once earnings came out and disappointed expectations, the stock sold off and found support near the 391. Now it is consolidation near the 403-405 level. If the market continues to move higher, eventually a market stock like AAPL will be back in sync with the market price movement. When that happens, look for AAPL to break above the 427 and it might make some analyst’s price prediction near the 450 level to come true.

The overall tone of the market is positive and it is indicating the near term trend is up.

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Sunday, October 16, 2011

Follow UP

The market continues to move higher while most traders are in disbelieve on this rally off the failed breakdown. The pull back has been anemic, forcing lot of market participants to chase this move.

The SP500 pulled back from the 1220 resistance only on its first attempt to regain this level since September. Failing to pull back toward the 50 SMA or near the 1170 level, the bulls gained confidence and pushed it above 1220 and closed at 1224.58 on Friday. Similar price actions for the DJIA (see chart below)

AAPL did a minor pullback from the 403, but not enough to give a good risk & reward setup to initiate new swing long. Gold & silver continue to consolidate and setting up for the next move. They are still too early to go long or short until they have move away from the current sideway chop.

Expecting a volatile week with earnings report coming from AAPL, IBM and GS along with OpEx week.

Here are the updated charts for the DJIA, SP500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, AAPL, GLD & SLV.



Nasdaq 100:

Russell 2000:


GLD (Gold ETF):

SLV (Silver ETF):

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Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Bouncing Back

After last Tuesday breakdown and reversal back into the trading range, the market is bouncing back toward the upper level of the trading range once again. Although the market is still in the down trend, the earnings report period that just got started could bring some upside surprises that could take the market back to test previous broken support level such as 1260 for the SP500 and 11600 for the DJIA.

Below are the charts for the market indice along with AAPL, GLD & SLV. Click on the chart to get a larger view.



Nasdaq 100:

Russell 2000:


Silver ETF (SLV):

Gold ETF (GLD):

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Monday, October 3, 2011


What a difference a day makes. The SP500 finally resolved itself toward the downside by breaking its August low. Now it is a matter of how low will it go before it can find support. From the daily, there could be a minor support near 1060 then the major support level to be tested is 2009’s August low near 1040. This is only 40-60 points away from today’s close. With current volatility, it can reach that level in one to two trading sessions.

When the last chip standing such as AAPL begins to roll over, that could be an indication the market is entering a capitulation phase. From AAPL price chart, if it breaks below 360 and the March 2009 trend line, capitulation could be near if not already occurring. Will be watching to see what kind of a bounce AAPL will receive after its iPhone 5 announcement tomorrow, this could be a clue on what’s to come.

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Sunday, October 2, 2011

Still Waiting For Resolution

Continue to wait for the SP500 to resolve from its multi-months trading range. Looking at last week’s result, it seems like the index didn’t change much since it ended the week near where it started. But if one takes a deeper look at individual stocks, one can see there has been some damage done that could be the start of the resolution toward lower low that everyone is waiting for.

Here are the updated charts for the SP500, SPY and the QQQ:

SP500 (weekly):

SP500 (30 minutes intraday):

SPY (weekly):

QQQ (weekly):

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