Where Is The Stock Market Headed? - (Weekly Update 6/1/2019)

The stock market continues to fall after Trump imposed tariff on Mexico. In this stock market weekly update, we will analyze the market indices, crude oil, gold, semiconductor and the financial sector to see where is this market headed.

Will The Stock Market End 2018 With A Loss?

As the market has turned negative for the year and as 2018 is coming to an end, will the market rally back into the positive territory to end 2018 on a positive note? Since I do not have a crystal ball or some magic power to predict the future, I will resort to my technical analysis skills in an attempt to extract what the market might do in the near future. With that said, let’s do it.




Starting off looking at the DJT index to see if there are any signal from the Dow Theory, and the answer is no. Next, looking at the daily chart, I see the price has broken the support level near 9757 and dropped into the Fibonacci retracement zone (shared area between 38.2% - 61.8%) to the 50% range. In addition, the price has also reached the 141% of the near term Fibonacci extension. The 50% retracement and the 141% extension provided a confluent that could trigger a dead cat bounce back to the region between 9420-9757. If a countertrend-rally does not occur near this confluent then I will be watching for support near the 161% extension or the 61.8% retracement near 8600-8400. If neither of these scenarios play out, then the key level to watch will be 8171.93.




To continue my analysis, I will turn to the DJIA to see what it might do. First it also has retracement into the Fibonacci retracement zone. Unlike the DJT, it only retraced to the 38.2% level and appears to have tagged a support level near 22413. Furthermore, it has reached the 161% of the near term Fibonacci extension. Similarly to the DJT, the Fibonacci retracement and extension are in confluent and could provide the trigger for a dead cat bounce near the current level back to 23242-23881 range. Alternatively, if a bounce does not occur at the current level, then I will be watching for possible bounce off any one of these potential support levels; 22179, 21681, and 21169. The 21169 level is a key level to watch as it is in confluent with the 200% Fibonacci extension and 50% of the Fibonacci retracement.




From the two Dow indexes; the transportations and the industrials, we see the possibility of a dead cat bounce in the near future back to the levels where these indexes have broken down from. Moving onto the SP500 (SPX), it too has moved into the Fibonacci retracement zone and near the 50% level. Also it is near the 161.8% near term Fibonacci extension and getting close to a potential support level near 2400. Similar to the DJIA and the DJT, a confluent around these levels could trigger a dead cat bounce back to the 2532-2583 area. If the countertrend-rally does not show up here, then I will be watching for a move toward the 61.8% retracement level and the potential support level near 2300 for possible support.




Turning to the tech dominated index, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), it also show the price has dipped into the retracement zone, but not sitting near any of the retracement levels. It is currently sitting in between the 38.2% and the 50% retracement level, and near the potential support level of 6012.95. For the Fibonacci extension, it is sitting in between the 127% and the 141%. Unlike the DJT, DJIA and the SPX, the NDX does not have any confluent at work. Instead, it appears to be respecting the prior support turned into resistance levels. Therefore, I will be watching for this index to make incremental move back to the resistance levels above current price if a dead cat bounce appears. Otherwise, I will be looking for it to continue to move lower and test the potential support levels near 5895 and 5717.




Finally, looking at the small cap, the Russell 2000 index (RUT). The RUT has dipped below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and sitting right above the 161% extension. It too could experience a dead cat bounce from the current level back toward the 38.2% retracement near 1436 and 1459. If it doesn’t bounce at the current level, then I will be looking for a possible bounce off the 61.8% retracement near the 1263.5 support level. Otherwise, the key level to watch is 1190.20 near the 200% Fibonacci extension.

There you have it. The indexes are all near a potential countertrend-rally level. Whether the indexes will bounce or not off these levels, the trend is biased on the downside. Until some stabilities have been re-established, I will continue to be on the cautious side. I know the recent selloff is not very pleasant for most, including myself. We all have experience some degree of drawdraw, especially in our long term account. But like everything, all things will past, including this selloff. Just be careful, be patient, and enjoy the holidays.

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Stock Market Update (live) - 11/24/2018

In this live session, we will review and identify price levels to watch for the stock market indexes and their ETF.

Click here to watch the video.

Stock Market Dead Cat Bounce or Short Squeeze? - 3/4/2018

The stock market had a nice bounce off the opening low after 3 consecutive down days. It rallied into the close during the last 30 minutes as OpEx approaches. Was this rally a short squeeze or simply a dead cat bounce from the recent selloff?

In this stock market update, we will review the stock market indexes, and analyze the #FAANG stocks for trade setup using technical analysis. In addition, we will also look at the price action from NVDA, BABA & TSLA.

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Stock Market Is Struggling Toward New High

The stock market has been trying to get back to it's all time high, but it is having a difficult time getting there. A continuation on the recent pullback for the coming week is highly probable. Until the market is back at it's all time high, the bias should remain on the downside.

Click here to watch the video for levels to monitor.

Is There A Bounce Coming ? (8/26/2017)

The stock market is showing some divergence, could a bounce be in the offing? In this stock market update, we will review the stock market indexes, and analyze stocks for trade setup using technical analysis technique.

Stock analyzed: AAPL, FB, NFLX, AMZN, TSLA, TWTR, SPY, QQQ, IWM

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Stock Market Continue To Pull Back - August 19, 2017

The stock market continue to pull back last week. Market breadth indicators are showing sign of deterioration and the Dow Theory is confirming the DJIA pull back. Until we see the stock market showing signs of stabilizing, one should remain cautious. In this stock market update, we will review the price action of the indices and these stocks: AAPL, FB, NFLX, AMZN, TSLA, GLD/GC_F.

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Was That A Stock Market Top?

The stock market record closing streak finally came to an end on August 8, 2017. It ended after the Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJIA) has closed with nine consecutive record close. The end of the record streak did not come quietly. It ended on a day the DJIA and SP500 made an all time intraday high then reversed to close with a loss. Was that a stock market top?

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Has The Stock Market Topped - August 6, 2017

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at all time high last week. It has closed at record high level for the last eight consecutive trading sessions. This beg one to ask the question, "Has the stock market topped?" In this stock market update, we will analyze the market price action to get clues to help us answer the question.

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Weekly Market Recap & Stock Update - 10/4/2015

A review of the market & momo stocks: AAPL FB AMZN NFLX GOOGL TWTR TSLA IBB TLT UUP DX_F.

Stocks & Market Review - 6/21/2015

In this video, we will take a look at the market along with these MOMO stocks: AAPL, FB, TWTR, BABA, NFLX, AMZN, GOOGL, EBAY, LOCK, CYBR, FEYE, VDSI, PANW.

Is A New All Time High Coming?

Since the DJIA closed at a new all time high of 18,312.40 on 5/19/2015 (detailed in “Suspicious Record High”), it has retreated to close at a pivot low of 17,764.00 on 6/9/2015 before it started the process of reversing from the decline. This recent retracement of 548.40 points equates to a modest 3% pullback on a closing basis. On an intraday basis, it retraced from the 5/19/2015 intraday high of 18,351.40 to the 6/15/2015 intraday low of 17,698.40, a 653 points decline or a decline of 3.6%.

Market Continues To Gyrate

The market continues to frustrate the longs and the shorts as it gyrates its way to set up for the next move. Below are the charts of the indices and some commentary on what the price action might be telling us.

Deception From The Obvious

The market is always transparent. It prints everything that has occurred and it is up to the traders to extract and interpret what the market was saying. There are times the market will present information that is obvious, and it will use that information to deceive the participants.

Stock Market Review - 5/26/2015

A look at the market indices and to identify possible key levels to watch for the coming days. (correction to the video, on 5/19 only the DJIA closed at a new high).

Suspicious Record High

Today the DJIA closed with another all time closing high at 18,312.39, a gain of 13.51 or +0.07%. Although nearly 2/3 of the stocks in the DJIA index closed higher, but this record close is suspicious.

Market Review - 5/17/2015

The SP500 and the New York Stock Exchange Composite index closed at a new all time closing high. The Dow Jones Industrial is near its all time closing high.

Market & Stocks Review - 5/3/2015

In this video, we will take a look at the market indices and these stocks: AAPL, FB & TWTR.

Stock Market Watch - 4/26/2015

The market continues its march into new high territory last week. The NASDAQ Composite closed above the dotcom bubble closing high at 5092.08, and less than 50 points from the all time high of 5132.52. The tech heavy NASDAQ 100 did not make a new all time closing high but it did closed with another multi-years high at 4536.78. It is still some distance away from the dotcom bubble closing high of 4704.73.

Stock Market Review – 4/11/2015

This week the market shook off previous week’s weakness and the weak job report, and continues to move back toward its all time high. The NYSE cumulative Advance/Decline line is still trending higher as the SP500 moving back toward its March pivot high level (see chart below). The VIX is falling toward last December low level as the New-High/New-Low holding steady. Clearly, these are not the signs of a market that is getting ready to roll over.