Market Recap - 7/10/2012

A video review on the market and some stocks.



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Market Recap - 7/9/12

Market & Stock Review: 7/8/2012

Here are the video reviewing the market indices and some of the market leading stocks such as: AAPL, GS, IBM, GOOG, PCLN. And some stocks that might be of interest to monitor in the coming week.

Market video:



Stock video:



Email subscribers, please click on the title of the post to view the video.

AAPL Inflection Point

Watch the video to find out what make 618-620 an inflection point.

Video Review - 7/4/2012

Here are couple video on reviewing the market and some market leading stocks, and more.

Market video:



Stock video:

AAPL, PCLN, NFLX, And The Market: 7/2/2012

Watch the video for the market recap and the price action for AAPL, PCLN, NFLX.

SPX NDX RUT DJI:



AAPL PCLN NFLX:

UNG & The Financial

Here are the video taking a look at UNP, natural gas ETF, and some financial stocks: GS, BAC, MS, JPM.

UNG:



Financial:

Market Review - 6/30/2012

Here is a brief video reviewing what the market did last week and what to expect in the coming week.

Market Reveiw - 6/27/2012

Hee is a video on reviewing the market indices and where it might be headed.

Natural Gas Faded After Lighting Up

Today UNG, the natural gas ETF opened with a big up gap and moved above the resistance level near $20. Then it settled in and traded within the 19.70-20.00 range during the entire morning session. After the noon hour, UNG profit taking started to take hold and it ended down 0.15 for the day.

Here is a brief video looking at UNG's price actions and where the next long entry might be.



Disclosure: long UNG

AAPL, IBM & Market Review: 6/24/2012

Here is a look at the market indices and a look at couple of the market leading stocks: AAPL, IBM.

After Moody's Downgrades...What Now?

Here is a video that takes a look at some of the financial stocks after Moody's downgrades.

PartI:



Part II:

Shakeout

Market did a quick sell off and moved below near term support. This could be a shakeout before the next up move. Need to be cautious and be patient. Wait for the market to give clear indication which direction it will take before initiating any long or short positions. Watch the video for key levels to monitor.

Oil Prices Down...Watch The Airliners

With the crude oil prices coming down, keep an eye on the airliners for potential upside move. The market is still poise to move higher. Could see a near term consolidation before breaking out to higher ground. Monitoring AAPL to break above the $590 level. Look for possible move to 620 area when it breaks above $590.

Watch the video for details.



Disclosure: long AAPL CALL, UNG, JBLU

Big Move From UNG & GT

It appears natural gas has made a low term low and its ETF, UNG has made some big moves recently. GT (Goodyear Tires) is breaking out a resistance level with huge single day move. It was up more than 7% during intraday in the last trading session. Looking for possible more upside move from UNG & GT. Watch the video for more details, including latest move from AAPL.



Here is a video recapping on what the market did and where it could be headed along with updates on BAC, MS, GS, WFC, JPM and C.



Disclosure: Long AAPL, GT & MS

Where Is The Market & AAPL Headed?

Here is a video that take a look at where the market might potentially headed:



This following video takes a look at what AAPL needs to do to get back above $600, and what to watch for as a catalyst for a potential market rally:

AAPL Update; 6/9/2012

AAPL still confined in a trading range between 550-580. It could be setting up a small inverted H&S pattern with a measured move to possibly targeting the all time high of 644. Next week is OPEX & AAPL WWDC, beware of additional volatility and potential head fakes. Check out the video for details.

Market Review - 6/9/2012

Video review of the market and possible levels to monitor for the coming week.



For the email subscribers, click on the post title to view the video.

Market Review & AAPL Update - 6/6/2012

Video review of the market indices:



Video on AAPL:

Market Review - 6/3/2012

Here are couple video posted this weekend reviewing the market indices and some of the factors that will likely keep the downward pressure on the equities market.

Three Steps To A Trade

In order to survive in trading, one must have a systematic approach for putting on a trade. For me, I use a three steps approach. The three steps are: 1) the setup, 2) the trigger, 3) the exit.

The first step is to identify a setup. The setup can be anything that you find to give you an edge in the long term. The edge does not have to have a high win/loss percentage. It can be an edge based on high average winnings/average losses ratio. There are successful traders that use setups having win/loss percentage in the 30% range, but with very high average winnings/average losses ratio. Essentially, these setups experience many small losses with few big winnings. And the winnings are much more than offset the losses.

Setups can be based on a particular price action, a corporate event, seasonality factors, etc. The setups I use are based on price actions. Some of the setups I use are: formation of a price pattern, a breakout of a trend line, a bounce off a support. Here is an example of a price pattern setup I recently used for a swing long trade on AAPL. This is a triangle price pattern with two successful bounce off the 200 SMA.



After a setup has been identified, the next step is to determine a trigger level. In this example, the trigger level is the breakout of the last price point that backed off from the upper descending trend line of the triangle. Notice the multiple test of the trigger level prior to the last pullback.



Once the trigger has been established, the final step is to identify the exits. I consider this to be the most important step of a trade. The first and foremost exit is the stop loss. This stop loss level and the trigger level will definite the risk and help determine the position size for the trade. This is like an analogy to a game of blackjack. You determine how much you want to wager for a hand of blackjack, and the amount you have wagered is the amount at risk (provided you don't take those sucker bets such as insurance on a dealer's Ace face card or split & double down.) Without having determined the risk to place on a trade is like playing a hand of poker betting all-in without looking at your cards. This type of poker strategy can mean game over for you on a single hand, and without establishing the risk for the trade can blow up your trading account on a single trade.

In addition to the stop loss exit level, potential profit exit levels are also identified. These exits levels will determine if the trade is worth the risk. In my trading plan, each trade must have the potential to return multiple times of the risk taken. If the profit exit levels show the trade have the possibility of returning at least two times the risk, then the trade will be taken when it trigger.




I believe using these three steps to put on a trade have helped me on reducing impulse trading and reduce the emotional roller coaster after the trade is put on. It defines the risk and establishes a plan on managing the trade...before putting on the trade.

Here is what happened to the trade.




I can assure you, most of my trades do not work out so perfectly as this AAPL trade. I hope this three steps approach to a trade will help provoke some thoughts to some of you on how to improve your trading strategy.

Market & Stocks Review - 6/1/2012

Here are couple video review the market indices and the following stocks: AAPL, IBM, CRM, OPEN, PCLN.

SP500, DJIA, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000:




AAPL, IBM, CRM, OPEN, PCLN:

Update On AAPL, SP500, Nasdaq 100

Here are some levels to monitor for the near term on AAPL, SP500, and the Nasdaq 100. Watch the video for details.

PCLN - 5/28/2012

Another momentum stock on the verge of breaking down: PCLN

Will The Oversold Bounce Continue?

There could be a continuation on the oversold bounce that started last week for the market. Here is a video that take a closer look at some of the support and resistance levels for the SP500, DJIA, Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000.




A review of the SP500 & Nasdaq 100 on a longer time frame:

SP500 & SPY:




Nasdaq 100 & QQQ:

The Slide Continue For AAPL

AAPL is trying to reverse its recent downtrend. Until it can reclaim the 618 level, the trend remains down. The nearest possible support is 517. If it breaks below this support, look for potential capitulation near the 425-427 region.

IBM Will Lead The Dow

Keep an eye on IBM's price action if you are wondering where the DJI will go. Watch the video for more details.

Downtrend Continue

The US dollar continues to strengthen due to 'flight to safety' caused by the uncertainties from the Euro crisis and the direction of the US economy.

All the major sectors appear to have turned downward. Until the current uncertainties are removed from the market, the market will continue to be very news driven. Unless one is shorting this market, it is best to move to the sideline and wait for the dust to settle before start looking for long positions. Presently, it is best to be 'out of the market wishing you are in' than 'in the market wishing you are out'. Capital preservation is job one right now. Do not be tempted by a dead cat bounce that will likely to happen in the near term as the market is getting to the oversold condition. Wait for confirmation from the market that the end of the downtrend has occurred before moving back into the market.



Disclosure: Long SH, PSQ, and AAPL PUT

Updates For AAPL, GLD, MCP & HD - 5/15/2012

Here are the updates for AAPL, GLD, MCP & HD. Video posted.

AAPL:




GLD, MCP & HD:



Disclosure: long AAPL PUT

Recession Proof No More?

Here are three stocks that have benefited from the recession; HD, AZO and ORLY. Their run up might be coming to an end. Their price actions are showing possible break toward the down side. Video posted.



Just a follow up on a reminder. Tomorrow before the market open, HD is scheduled to report its quarterly earnings and the options market is pricing it to move +-10% (+-$5).

Another Gap-fill Attempt For MCP

MCP might have formed a triple bottom price pattern and it could be setting up to make another attempt to fill the 36/38 gap. Check out the video for more details.

Gold Getting Ready To Make A Move

Looking at the gold ETF, GLD, it is approaching the 152 support level. If it bounce off this level, then a possible swing long to the upper level of the trading range near 175. If it fails to hold 152, then look for lower prices in the 140 region.

Market Recap - 5/13/2012

Here is a market recap video for the week just ended and a look at what to watch for the coming week. Beware next week is another OPEX week, expect increase volatitily.



Disclosure: long SH & PSQ

Key Support For AAPL & SP500 - 5/10/2012

Support level for AAPL to hold is 558. If it can't hold 558, then next possible support level is 548. The SP500 support level is 1340. If it can't hold 1340, look for next level of support near the 1325.



(Email subscribers, click on the title of the post to view the video)

Disclosure: long AAPL PUT & SH

No Golden AAPL

Gold has lost its glitter today by broken below the long term supporting trendline, and AAPL was taken down to the 558 level then bounces back near some of the recent support/resistance levels.

Here are the videos that highlight the price action for GLD and AAPL, and what potential price levels to watch for the near term.

GLD:




AAPL:



Disclosure: long AAPL PUT

$700 AAPL Has To Wait...Moving To Lower Level

Look like those $700+ price targets for AAPL will have to wait. The market appears to be heading down to lower level and so is AAPL. One way to trade the downward move without shorting the market is to use the inverse ETF for the SP500 & Nasdaq 100; SH & PSQ respectively.



Disclosure: long SH & PSQ

Market Recap - 5/6/2012

Here is a look at what has transpired for the week ended 5/4/2012 and what to watch for the coming week.



Reminder to the email subscribers, click on the title of the post to view the video.

AAPL Continue To Slide

Ever since the blowout earnings report, AAPL has been on a downward slide. If it can't hold above 578, look for it to go down to fill the earnings gap near 562.




Disclosure: long AAPL PUT

April Job Numbers Move & Update On GLD Trade

A video previewing what the market might do when the April job numbers come out tomorrow.



Here is an update on my GLD trade. This trade was stopped out yesterday.

Beware Of Today's DJIA New Closing High

Today, the DJIA closed at a multi-year high. But more importantly, neither the SP500, Nasdaq 100 or the Russell 2000 closed at a new high along with the DJIA. This non-confirmation reinforce the Dow Theory non-confirmation between the DJT and the DJIA. If today's closing high does not turn out to be the top for this uptrend, then this will at least serve as a signal to the market participants that the internal market has topped out and longs beware.

The following chart of the closing prices for the DJIA, DJTA, SP500, and the Nasdaq 100 shows the non-confirmation.



Until the DJIA closing high is confirmed by other indices, I would rather be "out of the market and wishing I am in" instead of "trapped in the market wishing I am out". I have scaled out most of my longs before today's close. For now, I will move to the sideline and watch patiently.

Swing Long On GLD (Gold ETF)

GLD (Gold ETF) appears to be starting an upward move toward the neckline of a possible inverted head & shoulder pattern near the 170 level. View the video for more details.




A reminder for the email subscribers: if you don't see the video player in your email, simply click on the title of the post "Swing Long On GLD (Gold ETF)" and it will take you to the blog page where you can view the video.

Disclosure: long on GLD

Market Recap - 4/28/2012

Here is a video recapping what the market did for last week and what to watch for the coming week.

After AAPL Reported, Next Up Is AMZN

Here is a look at what AAPL did after earnings.




Next up, after the bell on Thursday, AMZN will be reporting its earnings, and here is a look at what could happen.




Disclosure: no position.

Blowout From AAPL

Another blowout quarter from AAPL pushing the price back above $600. Watch for possible fade and the $618 resistance. Watch the video for more commentary.



(For the subscribers that do not see the video player in their email, simply click on the title of the post to go to view the video.)

Disclosure: no position on AAPL

Weekend Video - 4/22/2012

Here is a video on the review for the SP500 and its ETF, SPY.




Other video that have been posted include the followings:

AAPL:




PCLN:




GT:

AAPL Gap To Be Filled

AAPL still have the possibility of moving down to the 568 to fill the gap. Yesterday the short seller covered when it dropped to 571. Watch the video for possible support level.



Disclosure: no position.

Market Correction Picture

Since the disappointed job report came out a week ago, the market price action took a turn toward the down direction. The market experienced five consecutive down sessions before it did an oversold/dead-cat bounce.

Is this new trend a correction or a new downtrend? At the present, most of the talking heads are saying it is a correction. But I'm sure as the market heads down further, many of these talking heads will get more negative and start talking about a new bear market. In regardless whether this downtrend is a correction or a prolong downtrend, one must respect the market's price action. And don't get hung up on what is causing the market to turn downward.

Whatever the catalyst is, whether it is: the continuation of the meltdown of the Euro Zone with Spain as the recent trouble spot; the dismal job growth in the US economy; lack of conviction from the Fed to do anymore QE; the strong dollars; or the high crude oil prices; etc. (I'm sure there are more), pay attention to the price action first. It makes no difference to one's account whether he/she know what just caused the market to drop 200 points. What's important is to take appropriate actions to protect one's capital.

Here are my observations on the market. (click on the chart to get a larger view)



The DJIA gave up the 13,000 level and sitting below the 50 SMA & the 20 EMA. It bounced off the 12,700 on an oversold rally. If it breaks this support level, it can possibly go down to 12,200-12,300, which is equivalent to approximately an 8% correction.




The SP500 has been unable to reclaim the 1390 level. The next possible level of support could be in the 1340 area. If it can't hold this support level, then it could drop to the 1280 for a 10% correction.




For the Nasdaq 100, it is trying to hold above the 50 SMA. But with AAPL and GOOG rolling over, it is more likely to test the 2650 level for support. Depending on how the tech sector holds up, this index could drop to 2575 or 2515 for an 8% or 10% correction respectively.




Finally, the Russell 2000 already gave up over 7% from the recent high to the 780 support level. If it can't hold above the 780 level, look for possible downward move to the 10% correction level of 760.


As this downtrend still fresh, it is too early to switch from a long to a short position. But it is prudent to tighten up the stops to protect existing profits and minimize the losses. The extend of this slide won't be known until it is completed. The market has a way to surprise all of us. It can quickly reverse and the SP500 make an all time high above the 1575 level. Anything is possible, but might not be probable...but who's to say it won't happen. Stay alert!

Huge Volume Move From Clorox (CLX)

Here is a brief look at the price actions for CLX that have been moving up with huge volume.



Disclosure: no position

Price Patterns For Gold (GLD)

The gold ETF, GLD could be forming one of the 4 price patterns. Three of them are bullish and one of them is bearish. Depending on how the prices will break in the coming week, then one can get more clarity on which price pattern it is most likely to form.



Disclosure: no position on GLD

AAPL & HPQ

AAPL is showing signs of weakness while HPQ is breaking out with heavy volume.



Disclosure: long on HPQ, no position on AAPL

SP500 Review - 4/12/2012

Sector ETF Review

Here is a video reviewing some of the sectors that have been pushing the market up and how they could drag the market down.



Disclosure: no position

SP500 Review - 4/10/2012

The market continue to selloff. SP500 broke through the 1370 support and looks like it is heading down to test the 1340 for support. SPY could be heading down to 134 area. Watch the video to see where the SP500 might find support if it can't hold 1340.




Disclosure: no position on SPY.

Watch The Divergence: AAPL, PCLN, ORLY

Pay attention to the MACD divergence for AAPL, PCLN, and ORLY. If you are in the trade, be sure to use your stop to protect the profit. A pullback could occur. Pay attention!



Disclosure: no position

SP500 & SPY Watch

After a disappointing job report last Friday and with the market being close for Good Friday, Monday's opening can be a rough one. The SP500 overnight future is already showing down near the 1375 level as of this writing. The question is if the SP500 breaks below this support level, where will it go for next support? Likewise for the SPY, if it breaks below 138, where will it find support? Watch the video to find out where the SP500 & SPY might find support.



Disclosure: no position on SPY

Rare Earth Stock MCP

Continue to monitor MCP for more possible upside. It might need to come down and test the 29-30 region for support before it makes its move above 35 and toward 43. Watch the video.



Disclosure: no position.

Reviewing The Financials - 4/7/2012

The financials could be pulling in the coming week. Check out the video for details.

ZNGA On The Move

Looks like ZNGA might be making a move to the 14.50 level. Check out the video for details.



Disclosure: no position

Waiting For Entry On MCP & GLD

MCP moved up 9%+ today. GLD is pulling back and printed a doji hammer. Waiting for setup to go long. Watch the video.



Disclosure: no positions

Unavoidable Ambush On JBLU

JBLU got ambushed today while LUV & UAL remain positive. View the video for details.



Disclosure: long JBLU

Airlines Taking OFF

JBLU, LUV & UAL could be setting up to take off. Here is a short video reviewing the price action.



Disclosure: long JBLU

MCP Video Review - 3/27/2012

MCP up more than 8% today. Took profit and will wait for re-entry.

Review On GLD, AAPL, AMZN & The Indices

Here is a quick recap on gold ETF, GLD, AAPL, AMZN and the market indices.

Gold & Silver Bounce

Getting ready for a possible bounce on GLD & SLV next week.



Disclosure: no position.

Rare Earth Stock Watch

Rare earth stocks I'll be watching next week. MCP, REE & AVL.



Disclosure: long MCP

GS, C & AMZN Review - 3/21/2012

A review on GS, C & AMZN.



If you didn't see the setup video for these stocks, here are the links for these videos: GS & C, AMZN.

AMZN On The Move

Disclosure: No position on AMZN.

SNDK Trade Review

Here is a trade on SNDK that was managed accordingly to the trading plan.

How Not To Manage A Trade: VRSN

Here is a review of a mis-managed trade on VRSN.

BIDU Trade Analysis - 3/5/2012

Flight To Quality

Here is a video reviewing the market indices and what to expect as the market is rotating toward 'flight to quality'

GS & C Breakout Watch - 3/3/2012