Continue To Exercise Patience Waiting For AAPL

AAPL continues to be a trading stock while it attempt to consolidate.  Unless you are an active trader, you will likely get chop by AAPL’s recent volatile price actions.

From the above daily chart, the 525.62 closing low on 11/25/12 turns out to be the start of the current positive MACD divergence.  In addition, the 505.75 low made by the long wicked hammer doji candle on the following day appears to be the floor for future prices to penetrate.   So far, three attempts; 12/14/12, 12/17/12 and 12/27/12 when the price moved below the 505.75 level, all three times the price bounced back and closed above it.  More importantly, the closing price on 12/28/12 is 20 cents lower than the 12/14/12 close while the MACD held a higher level on 12/28/12 than on 12/14/12.  This is another sign of continuation of the positive MACD divergence.  This MACD divergence could end up simply being an indication of a pause in the current downtrend, or it can be a precursor to an uptrend.   In regardless, the recent price actions along with the MACD divergence should be taken as an alert to lighten up any existing short positions and resist from initiating new short positions until it has closed below the 505.75.  For the active short term traders (day traders), it would be more prudent to focus on setup to go long than to focus on setup to go short as the 505.75 appears to be the support level until it has been breached.

Until the price has closed above the 1/2/13 high of 555 to establish a higher high and a higher low with prices hold above 12/28/12 close of 509.59, resist from initiating new swing long position unless you consider holding a position overnight is a swing trade.  Until then, continue to exercise patience.

Caveat: If the price closed below 509.59 prior to closing above 555, then the long bias will no longer hold.

Stocks To Watch For The Coming Week: 1/6/2013

Here are some stocks might be worthwhile watching for the upcoming week: GOOG, GS, MS, NFLX, FB, GLD.



Click on this link to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

AAPL Started 2013 With A Bang

After the US congress passed a bill to avert the fiscal cliff crisis on New Year's day, the market exploded to the upside on the first trading day of 2013.  As all good leading stocks do, AAPL helped on lifting the market by open strongly.  But it quickly ran into the 555 resistance level and pulled back.  Although it held the opening gap, but it is encountering resistance at 549.

During the last month of 2012, AAPL appears to be establishing a support level near the 505 to propel it to regain some of its recent losses.  AAPL has the potential to reach the 595 in the near future if it reclaim the 555 level.

Here is a video reviewing the recent price actions and  price levels for $AAPL to hold & reclaim in order to continue its upward move in the near future.



Click on this link to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Wishing everyone a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous 2013!

Disclosure: Long AAPL CALL

GS Could Be Leading Again

Happy Holidays!

On Dec 8, 2012, I posted a video on the financial sector pointing out the possible upward price movements from some of the financial stocks. I have place the video below for those that wish to watch it again or for those that have not seen it. (The ETF is XLF not XLE as mentioned in the video. Click here if there is no video player on your screen.)





Recently, the financial sector has been one of the strength in the market and the sector leader GS appears to be setting up to lead this sector higher.  GS daily price chart (see below) shows how it moved rapidly to the price target of 128/129 projected by the multi-bottom  pattern made between Nov-Dec after it has broke above the 121 level.

(Click on the chart to enlarge.)

Now it is at an inflection point near the 129/130 level where there is confluence from the multi-year declining trend line and the support/resistance trend line (see weekly chart below).  This confluence could pose a minor pullback/consolidation before it resumes its upward move.  After GS breaks above the 130 level, it could continue to move toward the 174/175 price target with the possibility of encountering resistance near the 156/157 level.

(Click on the chart to enlarge.)

AAPL Review For 12/15/2012

AAPL has another down week.  Here is a look at where it might be headed.



Click on this link if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Disclosure: Long AAPL CALL

Market Review - 12/11/2012

Here is a quick review on the EFT for major market indices along with a look at the following stocks: AAPL GOOG IBM GS FFIV



Click on this link to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Disclosure: Long GOOG, QQQ PUT

Looking At GOOG Intraday - 12/8/2012

Here is a video looking at the intraday price actions and a clarification on the usage of the head & shoulder and the inverted head & shoulder pattern.



Click on this link to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Disclosure: No position on GOOG

The Rising US Dollar Effects

The US dollar reversed its decline and gathering strengths. Looking at the DXY (US dollar index) chart, this index could be heading toward 81.75 from the recent low near 70.50.

Conversely, the Euro started to decline from its recent high 130.13 toward the 127 level. If it fails to hold 127, it could fall to the previous pivot low near 125.90.

Similarly, the price of crude will fall as the US dollar rise. From the chart for the crude ETF, USO could drop to 29.50, where the spot price for light crude will be near 78 per barrel.

Finally, the price of gold could also fall along with other commodities prices. The ETF for gold, GLD could drop to 162 that mean gold could be less than 1680 per ounce. If it cannot hold the 1680 per ounce, it could drop to 1620 per ounce or near 157.50 for GLD.

A Less Obvious Pattern For GOOG

There is an invert head & shoulder appears to be forming for GOOG. But this pattern is too obvious and the market rarely reward the obvious. Here is another not so obvious pattern that could be forming for GOOG.



Click on this link to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Disclosure: No position on GOOG

AAPL - 12/5/2012

AAPL experienced one of its worst day. It loss nearly 7%, little more than $39. Watch the possible gap fill between 540/530. Here is a video reviewing the price actions and price levels.



Click on this link to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Disclosure: No position on AAPL

AAPL - 12/2/2012

Here is a review of AAPL after another volatile week that was mainly driven by the fiscal cliff news.



Click this link to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

Disclosure: Long AAPL PUT

NFLX - 12/1/2012

Here is a look at recent price actions for NFLX and what possible trade levels to monitor for possible swing long.



Click on this link if you do not see a video player on your screen.

AAPL - 11/26/2012

AAPL finally filled the 574 gap made on Nov 7, 2012.  It has been up more than 86 points since it dropped to 505 on Nov 16, 2012.  One should not be surprise to see a minor pull back after such a quick and large recovery from its recent low.  Check out the video for details on some possible support and resistance levels to keep an eye on for the near term.



Click on this link to view the video if you do not see a video player on your screen.

AAPL - 11/16/2012

Today AAPL shows sign of capitulation and that could lead to a short term bounce.  Watch the video for more details.



Here is the link for the video.

Post Election Move

The US election is finally over and the market has returned to focus on the fiscal cliff and the Euro crisis.  Since the brief rally on election day, the DJI gave back 430 points (3.2%), the SP500 loss 48 points (3.3%), the Nasdaq 100 dropped nearly 97 points (3.6%), and the Russell 2000 loss more than 30 points (3.7%).  The week ended with all the indices closed below their 200 moving average.

Next week is another monthly options expiration week and expects increase volatility.  A dead cat bounce rally could appear before OpEx and this rally should not be bought until the market has clearly shown sign of a reversal.

Here are the charts for the market indices highlighting the possible resistance and support levels.

DJI

SP500

Nasdaq 100

Russell 2000

Pre-election Stock Play

As the US election is less than 2 days away, the market will likely be positioning for the probable election outcome. Depending on the election results, certain industries will benefit and others will not.

Here is a stock that is unlikely to be affected by the election results, Las Vegas Sands (LVS), a casino/leisure stock.

LVS appears to be forming a cup & handler pattern with a breakline near 47.60 and a measured move price target near 60. Watch the video for more details on the analysis.

Click here if you don't see a video player on your screen.



 Disclosure: Long on LVS

Trading With The Trend

To increase the probability of a successful trade, we need to know the current trend of the market and the stock (commodity, ETF, etc) we are planning to trade. If the market is in an uptrend, we should focus on long setups for the underlies that are in an uptrend, and when the market is in a downtrend, we should focus on short setups for going short on those underlies that are in a downtrend. If the trend for the market or the underlie is unclear, then we should move to the sideline until a trend can be identified.

On October 5, 2012, the market sent us a message that it has entered a downtrend by having the DJIA closed with a new non-confirm high and I posted this "We Need To Listen To What The Market Has To Say". In addition, on October 13, 2012, I posted an update on the market’s trend "Stock Market Review - 10/13/2012" when it reaffirms its direction. The market has definitely set off the alarm to inform us to tighten up our stop on the longs to protect our profits and preserve our capital. More importantly, it has alerted us to either move to cash or start focusing on short setups from the stocks (commodities, ETFs, etc) that are in a downtrend.

Here is an example of a downward trending stock, AMZN. In the first chart, AMZN price actions look very similar to the SP500 (SPX). It formed a double top, broken this price pattern’s supporting baseline on October 10, 2012, and closed below the 50 SMA (green) along with a declining 20 EMA (aqua).

The following chart shows AMZN established a downtrend by making a series of lower low/lower high.

Finally, the chart below shows the latest price actions re-affirm the downtrend by breaking the multi-month trendline, failed to move above previously broken support level, and formed another lower low that help define the downward price channel.

Until AMZN has reversed the current downtrend by breaking out of the downward price channel and made a series of higher low-higher high, one should look for short setups to go short after it has encountered resistance or broken support. When a stock is in a downtrend within a down market, the odd for a profitable counter trend trade is low. The odd for a successful trade is much better when we trade with the trend.

Disclosure: Long AMZN PUT