Saturday, January 8, 2011

First Week of 2011

The first week of trading for 2011 is over and the market’s appearance is it is going higher. But internally, there are signs that said in the short term it might come back down a bit before it resume its move to higher high.

The SP500 is climbing toward the 1300 level but the divergence with the MACD could put this climb on a temporary halt.

SP500:



Similar divergence appeared on the DJIA and Nasdaq 100.

DJIA:



Nasdaq 100:



This divergence does not imply a pullback will occur, it just put out signs that momentum is slowing and a possible pull back could happen. Whenever I see this type of divergence, I move into a cautionary mode and be less aggressive on the long side.

The UUP (US dollars ETF) showed some strength and broke out of a small declining price channel. The level I am watching is the high of 23.52 it made on 11/30/2010 and the 200 SMA. I will continue to consider the trend to be down until it has broken above these levels and formed a higher high/higher low pattern.

UUP:



The short US long term treasury ETF, TBF is hovering in the middle of a rising price channel and bumping up against a possible baseline resistance at 45.42. If it breaks above this level, potential upside could be the upper price channel trend line near 47.

TBF:



The Agri ETF, MOO continues its upward trend with upper target level near 58.

MOO:



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