Sunday, April 14, 2013

Making The Top

The market continues to grind higher and causing much frustrations to all those traders looking for a pullback. As the DJI continues to make non-confirmed high, many of those sideline traders are giving up waiting for the pullback and starting to move back into the market. At the same time, the internal market is getting weaker. This behavior is no different than previous market cycle peak, and the next big move will not be any different from previous cycle as well.

Here the SP500 daily price chart shows it made a new all time closing high of 1593.37 on 4/11/13 with the intraday high nearly reached the rising price channel upper trend line.



Below is the daily price chart of the DJI. It also made a new all time closing high on 4/11/13 by closing at 14,855.14. Unfortunately, this new closing high was not confirmed by the DJT. But for whatever it's worth, this new ATH was confirmed by the SP500. Similar to the SP500, the intraday high for 4/11/13 was near the upper trend line of a rising price channel.



While the SP500 and the DJI were making new all time high, the DJT continue to form the lower high-lower low price pattern. This is a sign of a new downward price trend. If this index does not reverse back up and start making new ATH to confirm the DJI, the market might experience more than a correction or a pullback in the near future.



The tech weighted index, Nasdaq 100 finally woke up a bit and surged to near a new 52 week high. Some big cap tech stocks are due to report their earnings in the next couple weeks, and some volatile price actions could occur prior to their reporting. This price action could propel the NDX to a new 52 week high and get more of the non-informed market participants excited about the tech sector before the market reverse. As the chart below shows the NDX finally broken out of the trading range and made a move toward a new 52 week high.



Finally, the Russell 2000 also starting to form a lower high-lower low price pattern. It tried to recapture the lower trend line level from the rising price channel on 4/11/13. Instead, it finished with a shooting star doji type candle on the day the DJI and the SP500 made a new all time closing high. If this is not a subtle sign the market sent out to inform us a top is in the making, then the RUT will need to reverse itself from this lower high-lower low price pattern and to put in a new closing ATH soon.



The market is still creating attention for the talking heads to be on 'new record' watch. Until some catalyst that will divert the talking heads attention away from watching the DJI on making new closing high while other market indices are below their respective record high, traders should not be surprise to see the DJI continue to break higher into new high territory. The market is in the process of making a top, and when this process is completed, more people will end up losing money than making money on this bull run. This is how it always been, and it will always be. Trade cautiously and resist the temptation to chase the move. There will always be more opportunities in the market. The worse scenario is to lose your trading capitals and not being able to capitalize on the next opportunity due to lack of capitals. Good luck.




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