Wednesday, November 4, 2015

How High Can This Market Go?


Announcement: This will be my last blog post until after Thanksgiving. I will be away for a few weeks on my long overdue vacation. I will resume blogging after Thanksgiving. Until then, I wish you and your family a Happy Thanksgiving!


Since the September 29 close, the market has been on an upward trajectory that has made many market participants scratching their head and wondering how high this market can go without a pullback. The simple answer is, “It can go higher than anyone might believe.” In other words, don’t waste time focusing on how high the market can go, focus on how to ride the trend as long as it is here. The market will stop going higher when it has decided to stop rising. Simple as that!

Some have been saying this market behavior is not normal.

Here is a chart of the SP500 showing what happened in 1998 and what is happening now. The chart shows what is happening now doesn’t look much different than what had happened in 1998.

(click on the chart to enlarge)



Here is a chart of the Nasdaq 100 showing what had happened in 1998 and what is happening now. Again, what is happening now is not much different from 1998. Yes, reason(s) might be different, but human reaction is similar. Abnormal or just a normal price move prior to a climactic top?



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